- Aug 28, 2014
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CROOTIN'
Will Miles at Read and Reaction did an analysis of 247 team roster composite as a predictor of winning percentage a while back. You can search his archives to find it. (The 247 composite adds up the total points of a team when the season starts, so it accounts for defections and transfers, etc.)
But basically team talent is overwhelming the most important factor. On these pages there's a lot of bytching and hand-wringing about coaching and play selection etc. etc. Over-analysis and circle jerking when in fact the only thing that really matters is Jimmie and Joe's.
THE TEAM WITH THE MOST TALENT WINS 80% OF THE GAMES
Realistically any coach* in the league will win as long as he has superior talent.
Through 40 games this year the team with the most talent wins 80% of the time.
But lets' look at the exceptions:
1) UGA v SC - Would anybody here say that Chump is a better coach than Smart? That game wasn't about game planning as much as it was about 4 turnovers and Georgia coming out flat.
2) LSU v Bama With the addition of Joe Brady at LSU you could argue coaching. You could also argue that 'bama came out flat and suffering from "winning fatigue".
3) The Barry Odom factor - What if I told you one coach in the league is consistently beating better teams? What if I told you that coach was Barry Odom. Going back to 2015 Odom has the best record against superior (talent wise) teams. Now granted the teams he beats are usually in disarray. Opposition coaches on the way out or in their first season but he may be the best coach in the league from the stand point of beating teams he shouldn't. (the preceding is in no way of an endorsement of Barry Odom - just an observation).
4) UF v The Barn - Barely a difference in talent
5) Arky v UK - Losing coach on his way out.
2019 is a little unique in that there has been very little turnover as compared to other years. Only one coach has been fired. Going back to 2015 there have been 4-5 coaching changes each season with coaches either being fired or in their first season. And those coaches will lose at a slightly higher rate.
TLDR
It's all about the Jimmie and Joe's.
Will Miles at Read and Reaction did an analysis of 247 team roster composite as a predictor of winning percentage a while back. You can search his archives to find it. (The 247 composite adds up the total points of a team when the season starts, so it accounts for defections and transfers, etc.)
But basically team talent is overwhelming the most important factor. On these pages there's a lot of bytching and hand-wringing about coaching and play selection etc. etc. Over-analysis and circle jerking when in fact the only thing that really matters is Jimmie and Joe's.
THE TEAM WITH THE MOST TALENT WINS 80% OF THE GAMES
Realistically any coach* in the league will win as long as he has superior talent.
Through 40 games this year the team with the most talent wins 80% of the time.
But lets' look at the exceptions:
1) UGA v SC - Would anybody here say that Chump is a better coach than Smart? That game wasn't about game planning as much as it was about 4 turnovers and Georgia coming out flat.
2) LSU v Bama With the addition of Joe Brady at LSU you could argue coaching. You could also argue that 'bama came out flat and suffering from "winning fatigue".
3) The Barry Odom factor - What if I told you one coach in the league is consistently beating better teams? What if I told you that coach was Barry Odom. Going back to 2015 Odom has the best record against superior (talent wise) teams. Now granted the teams he beats are usually in disarray. Opposition coaches on the way out or in their first season but he may be the best coach in the league from the stand point of beating teams he shouldn't. (the preceding is in no way of an endorsement of Barry Odom - just an observation).
4) UF v The Barn - Barely a difference in talent
5) Arky v UK - Losing coach on his way out.
2019 is a little unique in that there has been very little turnover as compared to other years. Only one coach has been fired. Going back to 2015 there have been 4-5 coaching changes each season with coaches either being fired or in their first season. And those coaches will lose at a slightly higher rate.
TLDR
It's all about the Jimmie and Joe's.
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