Recruiting - 83.7% of the time it works every time

Ancient Reptile

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Obviously, their record against inferior talent would project against superior talent. <sarcasm font>
This is the stupidity of the UCF would win in the SEC argument.
Vanderbilt has the least talent in the SEC. Yet UCF has even less. Conversely they have the most talent in the AAC. So of course they win all their games in conference. If they were in the SEC they'd have the record of Vandy or worse. Such an incredibly, humongous, outlandish, retarded and ignorant statement to even entertain the thought that UCF would have any success in the SEC.
I think that you knew that I was joking, but if not, I was.
 

Durty South Swamp

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Ill tell you who may be overperforming thus far... fleck. And I was on record saying we needed to take a look at him a couple years ago when we were in search mode. Im curious to see how he finishes the regular season - hes got iowa and NW on the road, then wisky at home to finish it out. They are 2 games in front of the next team in their div (wisky) so its highly likely they win and play OSU in the conf title game. That is quite the accomplishment considering the player talent and depth of that team, and only 2 years into a job with a team that was 6-6 when he arrived. They wont beat OSU but could play a solid game against them and really turn some heads. Minn will be in a NY6 bowl for sure.
 

williston_gator

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@zach_goodall: A QB's passer rating would be 39.6 if they spiked every snap. Kaiir Elam is allowing a 16.7 passer rating in coverage. That's absurd.
 

stephenPE

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Fleck=FLavor of the month. But I hope he beats OSU and gets to the final four.
He is certainly my kind of coach. Rah rah guy that loves his job and makes it fun for his boys. Minn. is a program that
has had little success in over 100 yrs. They must be gaga over him in the frozen north.
OK, Durty's infatuation inspired me and now I know the story of Fleck. I like the guy. He is a winner and has enthusiasm to burn. When yall fire Danny in 2 years for not winning it all you got my vote for PJ.
 
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SGG

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Well, the boys having fun is certainly the most important thing.
As long as the players have fun and everyone participated, from the starting quarterback to the scout team long snapper, that's all that matters.
 

SeabeeGator

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Fleck=FLavor of the month. But I hope he beats OSU and gets to the final four.
He is certainly my kind of coach. Rah rah guy that loves his job and makes it fun for his boys. Minn. is a program that
has had little success in over 100 yrs. They must be gaga over him in the frozen north.
OK, Durty's infatuation inspired me and now I know the story of Fleck. I like the guy. He is a winner and has enthusiasm to burn. When yall fire Danny in 2 years for not winning it all you got my vote for PJ.
Has been a while since Minnesota was successful. Tell us more about what it was like when they were winning championships in the 30s and 40s. Bet your pre-WW2 memories are pretty swell.
 

Zambo

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So 20 percent of the time, the team with less talent wins the game? Ok.
 

SeabeeGator

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@Zambo yes, in a shocking turn of events, the team with the decided advantage in personnel beats the other team most of the time but not all of the time. It’s groundbreaking research.
 

Zambo

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This is the beautiful thing about statistics. If you torture the data enough, it will confess to anything.

How about a time when say Bama plays Vandy? Obviously Bama with more talent wins that game more like 99% of the time. Most games are more like this than say Auburn vs Alabama, where the talent gap is smaller but still evident. Because of all those 99% games, there are other games where the talent gap still exists but the win percentage is much lower than 80%.

Trying to assign coefficients to something as unpredictable as cfb is a fool's errand. All you can really say is that all things being equal, the team with more talent will probably win more games, and that teams with better coaching, all other things being equal, will probably win more games.
 

SeabeeGator

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All you can really say is that all things being equal, the team with more talent will probably win more games, and that teams with better coaching, all other things being equal, will probably win more games.
Deep man. Don’t go too far out there on those limbs. What next - schools that invest more money into their program tend to see better results?
 

Zambo

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Deep man. Don’t go too far out there on those limbs. What next - schools that invest more money into their program tend to see better results?
Congrats on picking up on the implication that its a "no duh" exercise. For a minute there I though I was being too subtle.
 

SeabeeGator

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@Zambo yes, in a shocking turn of events, the team with the decided advantage in personnel beats the other team most of the time but not all of the time. It’s groundbreaking research.

Congrats on picking up on the implication that its a "no duh" exercise. For a minute there I though I was being too subtle.
Oddly enough, you missed that I was giving you crap for writing a long winded version of what I posted prior. I knew I should’ve posted that in crayon...
 

Zambo

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Oddly enough, you missed that I was giving you crap for writing a long winded version of what I posted prior. I knew I should’ve posted that in crayon...
Generally I skip over your posts. Probably why I missed it.
 

BMF

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247 looks at the entire roster at the beginning of the season. It's not perfect. For instance it counts Brenton Cox counts towards our total - who obviously isn't playing. What I'd like to do (maybe in the offseason) is create a database of every team. Then each week I could do a comparison of starters vs starters. Even position group vs position group. A lot of work and the results will probably be as expected.
However what it would reveal is whether or not a particular unit and therefore coach is under- or over- performing.

If you have the time on your hands, and the wherewithal, I'd like to see that comparison. Would be good/valuable info.

I tend to agree w/ the aspects of this, but teams like Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, UGA, LSU should only ever lose when they play one of the other teams. UGA losing to SC this year, Ohio State losing to Purdue last year, UF losing to Ole Miss in 2009 are big outliers. But it happens, it's college football.

I'm not ready to give up on Mullen by any means, and I do think we'll see a steady bump in our classes over the next few years. He just needs to get our classes inside the top 10, then shoot for the occasional top 5 class (once every 3 or 4 years?). I do think facilities will help, but that's a few years away.
 

jdh5484

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This is the beautiful thing about statistics. If you torture the data enough, it will confess to anything.
Brilliant. Must remember for my next staff meeting.
 

Ancient Reptile

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If you have the time on your hands, and the wherewithal, I'd like to see that comparison. Would be good/valuable info.

I tend to agree w/ the aspects of this, but teams like Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, UGA, LSU should only ever lose when they play one of the other teams. UGA losing to SC this year, Ohio State losing to Purdue last year, UF losing to Ole Miss in 2009 are big outliers. But it happens, it's college football.

I'm not ready to give up on Mullen by any means, and I do think we'll see a steady bump in our classes over the next few years. He just needs to get our classes inside the top 10, then shoot for the occasional top 5 class (once every 3 or 4 years?). I do think facilities will help, but that's a few years away.
I hope that you are correct about the steady bump in recruiting classes. Imo, it is his (and our) only hope for him becoming the championship coach we want him to be. Incidentally I have said this since soon after his hiring. He isn't a good recruiter. He just isn't. It has to be a bootstrap operation whereby marginally better coaching leads to marginally better recruits and the better recruits lead to slightly better results. Rinse and repeat. I hope, but am by no means sure, that this will happen.
 

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