2022 investing thread

Egor's Assistant

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pl3dyaujxae91.jpg
 

abefroman

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Dollar cost average large caps all the way down to the standard ‘24 4Q election cycle dip. Still fiat money though, hedge with commodities
 

Concrete Helmet

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BTW anyone else see that the 30yr is down almost 1% from a month ago? Now this is how the fed should operate IMO.....Keep up the inflation narrative until November and keep buying bond out the backdoor to save the housing market....then restart the MBS buying massively in Nov-Dec.
 

FireFoley

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URGatorBait

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Cue the Jeopardy music.


what an absolute clusterfuch this country is in currently.
 

Egor's Assistant

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Cue the Jeopardy music.


Can we call it a recession now?
 

Concrete Helmet

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So this is precisely why the Fed cannot let the housing market crash..... we have paid off over 30 million dollars in revolving credit card debt in just the last 4 months from HELOC's......If these homeowners aren't given a continuing "out" with their ever swelling debt the whole system will go KABOOM.....Funny how despite the Fed raising rates the 10 yr has gone down nearly 100 basis points in the last 6 weeks...
 

FireFoley

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So this is precisely why the Fed cannot let the housing market crash..... we have paid off over 30 million dollars in revolving credit card debt in just the last 4 months from HELOC's......If these homeowners aren't given a continuing "out" with their ever swelling debt the whole system will go KABOOM.....Funny how despite the Fed raising rates the 10 yr has gone down nearly 100 basis points in the last 6 weeks...

Very true, but today 10 yr up 20 basis points. All the FED idiots trying to talk back what Powell said last week. The funny thing is as soon as the 3 month T-Bill inverted today with the 10 Year T-Note it reversed on a dime and is now positive 18 or so basis points. that has always been the signal. However regarding the credit card debt, lest people forget that even though the FED only "controls" the overnight rate,it is that overnight rate that most affects credit card debt! :trainwreck:
 

Concrete Helmet

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Very true, but today 10 yr up 20 basis points. All the FED idiots trying to talk back what Powell said last week. The funny thing is as soon as the 3 month T-Bill inverted today with the 10 Year T-Note it reversed on a dime and is now positive 18 or so basis points. that has always been the signal. However regarding the credit card debt, lest people forget that even though the FED only "controls" the overnight rate,it is that overnight rate that most affects credit card debt! :trainwreck:
Yes it looks like the 10yr hit 2.73 today and the stock market didn't like it as it started dropping about 2 hours ago. I don't like but if the housing market goes down this might not be fixable...debt is really that bad on both the consumer and government sides.....something is gonna give....
 

Concrete Helmet

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House prices still expect almost double digit YOY gain for August from some data I came across. We should expect some seasonal adjustments in Sept. though.
 

FireFoley

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Interesting this is happening big time in some areas, not so much in others. I was listening to some talking head say the FED has to be careful b/c home prices are starting to decline. I began screaming at the blower b/c the prices had gone up in some places 200, 300, 400 percent and that dropping a little will do nothing to help anyone. B/C you are starting at such an unsustainable level, a small drop won;t help. Prices need to come in almost 40% nationally for the average person to have a chance.
 

BMF

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Interesting this is happening big time in some areas, not so much in others. I was listening to some talking head say the FED has to be careful b/c home prices are starting to decline. I began screaming at the blower b/c the prices had gone up in some places 200, 300, 400 percent and that dropping a little will do nothing to help anyone. B/C you are starting at such an unsustainable level, a small drop won;t help. Prices need to come in almost 40% nationally for the average person to have a chance.

I'd be surprised if it was much more than 15%, but if it goes lower than that I may jump in on a rental property/second home.
 

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