2022 investing thread

[FireFoley]

@FireFoley Just a side note on those mortgages I mentioned...it's true I just went into the wifes office and she was working up 3 more that are between 5.00 and 5.50%, these are 2nd mortgages not HELOC's ...maybe banks know what's coming???

And in your opinion, do you think people are getting 2nd's to raise money b/c they are struggling b/c the handouts have slowed or stopped?

 

[BMF]

Tech stocks taking a BEATING!! META (FB) is down 25%! AMZN is down 8% over the last two trading days.

 

[Gator By Marriage]

Oh yeah, I did. It was the first day that the 3 mo. 10yr. inverted beyond a basis point and today it is "significantly" inverted. I don;t need to tell you what that means historically.

Embarrassed to admit this, but I wouldn't mind at all if you told me what that means historically. (Not even gonna try and pretend I'm asking for a friend!)

Grand Master J and the gang

Good one.

 

[FireFoley]

Tech stocks taking a BEATING!! META (FB) is down 25%! AMZN is down 8% over the last two trading days.

AMZN down 20% after hours at one point. For tech people there is no where to run no where to hide. Even MSFT which I own took a beating.

 

[BMF]

AMZN down 20% after hours at one point. For tech people there is no where to run no where to hide. Even MSFT which I own took a beating.

I own AMZN, APPL, BRK/B, GM, and a small amount of SOFI. So yeah, I'm taking a beating!

 

[FireFoley]

Embarrassed to admit this, but I wouldn't mind at all if you told me what that means historically. (Not even gonna try and pretend I'm asking for a friend!)


Good one.

Don;t be embarrassed. Just like I don;t understand a lot about tech and crypto, etc. the only way to learn is read and/or ask. Typically interest rates are higher the longer out you invest meaning a 3 month TBill should have a lower interest rate coupon that a 10yr. TNote. But when a shorter duration instrument carries a higher interest rate than a longer duration instrument, that is called curve inversion. So historically speaking when the 3 month TBill has a higher rate than the 10year TNote, it has predicted a recession in the near future 100% of the time. Most talk about the 2yr. 10yr spread, but the 3 month 10yr. I believe has a perfect record. But in my case I think we are already in recession. The talking heads think not yet, but the Bloomberg Future Index shows a 100% probability.

 

[FireFoley]

I own AMZN, APPL, BRK/B, GM, and a small amount of SOFI. So yeah, I'm taking a beating!

Well at least we do not own Google and Facepenus.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

And in your opinion, do you think people are getting 2nd's to raise money b/c they are struggling b/c the handouts have slowed or stopped?

People overspend....it's what they do. I do not jest when I tell you some of our clients customers know our staff on a first name basis....I'm talking about a lot of people who have sat at our closing tables 10X or more in the last 15-20 years.....

 

[Gator By Marriage]

Don;t be embarrassed. Just like I don;t understand a lot about tech and crypto, etc. the only way to learn is read and/or ask. Typically interest rates are higher the longer out you invest meaning a 3 month TBill should have a lower interest rate coupon that a 10yr. TNote. But when a shorter duration instrument carries a higher interest rate than a longer duration instrument, that is called curve inversion. So historically speaking when the 3 month TBill has a higher rate than the 10year TNote, it has predicted a recession in the near future 100% of the time. Most talk about the 2yr. 10yr spread, but the 3 month 10yr. I believe has a perfect record. But in my case I think we are already in recession. The talking heads think not yet, but the Bloomberg Future Index shows a 100% probability.

Thanks; that makes total sense.

I too believe we are in a recession. I can't help but believe that some of those saying we are not yet are doing so for political reasons.

 

[Alumni Guy]

Amazon trading at less than 50% of its 52 week high. Seems like time to buy.

Also seems like someone knows something that I don’t.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Amazon trading at less than 50% of its 52 week high. Seems like time to buy.

Also seems like someone knows something that I don’t.

Knock yourself out.....let us know how it works out for ya....

 

[Alumni Guy]

Knock yourself out.....let us know how it works out for ya....

Is it considered insider trading if my wife accounts for 22.38% of Amzn’s gross revenue?

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Is it considered insider trading if my wife accounts for 22.38% of Amzn’s gross revenue?

I always wondered who was buying the rest of their stuff.... That truck is here sometimes 3X in a day

 

[FireFoley]

Is it considered insider trading if my wife accounts for 22.38% of Amzn’s gross revenue?

Without AWS all Amazon would have is Gross Revenue. That online shopping and Whole Paycheck is nothing but a loss leader for them.

 

[BMF]

Amazon trading at less than 50% of its 52 week high. Seems like time to buy.

Also seems like someone knows something that I don’t.

I've added some AMZN the last few trading sessions, I should have dumped it before it split but now I'm in for the long haul. It'll come back...eventually. lol (on that note, I held Ford for YEARS before it bounced back a couple of years ago).

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Anyone else sitting out the Santa rally this year? I think January brings a new level of pain to the stock market not experienced since March 2020. I also think a huge junk bond default and bond rating falloff make the Fed halt the hikes while they figure out a new "tool" to be rolled out by April/May. In the meantime it is at least nice being able to soak cash at 4.60% or so.

Spread on 2- and 10-year Treasury yields shrinks to almost minus 80 basis points, remains at most inverted level in 41 years

 

[FireFoley]

you just said it Crete. 4.7% in a 100% guaranteed 6 month US Treasury with no limit is good by me right now. Don;t have to worry that I picked the right stocks at the right times. And if I get the monster flush I can exit the TBills in a split second and go elsewhere.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[BMF]

MSN

www.msn.com

So basically - they don't know. Got it.

 

[FireFoley]

MSN

www.msn.com

It seems a little like what I began saying over a year ago, but clearly this is going to be a regional location thing. There are so few existing homes for sale but the new home inventory is flooded. Just this week I saw listings for rentals of a brand new development that was slated as homes for sale. The project has started but clearly the homes are not selling. I think that 20% down number comes from places like near me that are having price drops and then sales down from 10-40%, because the previous sales price was just obscene, way way way way above the 2006 peaks. Then you have other areas nationally that had big increases, but nothing like FL or TN or TX etc. So you will have huge price declines there, but still high prices and small decreases in the remainder of the country and that is how you get to 15-20%. I think I said it would be a slow slow slow drip of 1% here 2% there over a very long period of time. Keep us posted Crete on the lending arena. I am sure December will be a quiet month but interested in first of year when people's bloated credit card bills start coming due from their holiday spending and the 20+% interest rates start compounding.