2022 investing thread

[Egor's Assistant]

I gotta say I find you a lot more fun in the investing forum.

Right now, I'm at a Kansas City Market Outlook event with a few minutes before the next panel kicks off, so I'm going to start replying, but probably won't finish soon. I'll also report on anything of interest I hear. FYI, I'm looking at this company for work.


How should we prepare for whatever it is?

I appreciated this effort. Seriously, I need all the investment insight I can get. I've read Stansberry and other bears, plus plenty of Gold bugs. Currently, I'm an InvestorPlace member. They're all bulls. I'm also learning a lot from Josh Brown, the Reformed Broker. But mostly I miss my Financial Advisor because if things were sh!tty, it was easy to blame him. Saving 1% on fees though... that's genius. Should have just hired Concrete back in March. Anyhow, portfolio is doing okay. Just don't know what's next.

As someone who studies a lot of geo-politics, I got to say I am very concerned about a Black Swan event setting up for the midterms. Also concerned about a reduction in population caused by over vaccination with experimental mRNA. Western world is already seeing plunging birth rates and sky-rocketing unexplained deaths. Will this affect markets?

Is it time to buy more Gold or Gold stocks? What a world we live in, my Gators.

 

[GatorCatsi]

I've read Stansberry and other bears, plus plenty of Gold bugs.

Did you know there's an "Unsolved Mysteries" on Netflix that purports to investigate a mysterious death "linked" to Porter Stansberry? The office was fun when that came out!

 

[Concrete Helmet]

I think I've mentioned I used to work at Stansberry. I worked on a couple of Dent promotions. He's been riding the same horse for decades.

Well he did call the crash of 87.....and 34 of the last 5 since then.....

 

[BMF]

I appreciated this effort. Seriously, I need all the investment insight I can get. I've read Stansberry and other bears, plus plenty of Gold bugs. Currently, I'm an InvestorPlace member. They're all bulls. I'm also learning a lot from Josh Brown, the Reformed Broker. But mostly I miss my Financial Advisor because if things were sh!tty, it was easy to blame him. Saving 1% on fees though... that's genius. Should have just hired Concrete back in March. Anyhow, portfolio is doing okay. Just don't know what's next.

As someone who studies a lot of geo-politics, I got to say I am very concerned about a Black Swan event setting up for the midterms. Also concerned about a reduction in population caused by over vaccination with experimental mRNA. Western world is already seeing plunging birth rates and sky-rocketing unexplained deaths. Will this affect markets?

Is it time to buy more Gold or Gold stocks? What a world we live in, my Gators.

The 2021 U.S. birth rate was up 1% and it's going to be 1% again this year (it's been going down for years, as much as 4%). But it is an issue, not sure when we'll 'feel it' though. Right now the southern border is wide f'ing open, so there's no issue w/ population growth.

 

[BMF]

I agree some of these guys it's the old "broken watch is right twice a day". I sure hope we don't see anything like 80% down in equities or 50% in housing but realistically I could see maybe 30-40% in stocks and and maybe even the same in housing as a worst case scenario in the next year or so.

What I found surprising was his take on the demo shift. We know millies are putting pressure on the housing market so if the supply stays reasonably lower does that sector escape with less damage? He's talking 2024-25ish which seems pretty soon. I guess that will depend a lot on interest rates going forward. What's your take?

I didn't watch the video - but did he call for an 80% drop in equities and 50% drop in housing? He's f'ing nuts if so. If housing drops more than 15% we should all consider that a deal. We've already seen a 20+% drop in the market, and it's made a little comeback.

 

[FireFoley]

I didn't watch the video - but did he call for an 80% drop in equities and 50% drop in housing? He's f'ing nuts if so. If housing drops more than 15% we should all consider that a deal. We've already seen a 20+% drop in the market, and it's made a little comeback.

You don;t need to watch. Harry Dent calls for those types of drops, as Crete said, about four or five times everyday since about oh 25 years ago, give or take?

 

[Concrete Helmet]

I didn't watch the video - but did he call for an 80% drop in equities and 50% drop in housing? He's f'ing nuts if so. If housing drops more than 15% we should all consider that a deal. We've already seen a 20+% drop in the market, and it's made a little comeback.

The baffling part is for being such a bear he believes bitcoin goes to 500K or more I believe he said before the end of this decade......

 

[FireFoley]

Homebuilders say U.S. is in a 'housing recession' as sentiment turns negative

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index has declined for eight straight months.

www.cnbc.com

I will say I don't feel too badly for them. They have had 2 years selling say a home for 900K that would have brought 400K had the Kung Flu never happened, now must discount that house to 775K? I think they will be just fine

 

[FireFoley]

Read all the way to the bottom Crete.

Homebuyers are backing out of more deals as high mortgage rates persist and recession fears linger

Homebuilder cancellation rates have more than doubled since April, according to surveys by John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Read all the way to the bottom Crete.

These are the top 10 hottest rental markets across the country

Rental prices are up 11% nationwide, but some cities are seeing double that increase.

fortune.com

I guess the question for those renting is if they want to pay $2200-2500 a month for an average house versus owning that average house for the same or less...

The drop off is basically from qualified buyers becoming un qualified due to interest rate increases.....when Papa Jerome turns on the printing machine the demand may go even higher if everyone hasn't lost their job by then....

 

[Concrete Helmet]

What the Housing Market Will Look Like by the End of Summer, According to Experts

This is pretty much the way I'm seeing it. Purchases have dropped off a little but that is pretty normal in Aug.-Oct.....Cash out refi's are at an all time high. Were back up to doing 15-20 closings a day. Also there has been a small but noticeable uptick in 1st lien refi's. I guess some prospective sellers might be deciding to stay put and fix up their old homes.

 

[FireFoley]

Warren Buffett gets permission to buy up to half of Occidental Petroleum, boosting the shares

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway received permission to purchase up to 50% of oil giant Occidental Petroleum.

www.cnbc.com

I do not own any OXY (too bad) as it has been on a tear, but I guess Uncle's Warren and Charlie and their minions feel the same way I do about how long it is going to take to electrify the world. I am guessing Uncle Carl Icahn wishes he still owned all of his OXY which he tossed in a tiff with the CEO over the purchase of Anadarko.

 

[FireFoley]

Home prices fell for the first time in 3 years last month – and it was the biggest decline since 2011

The sharp and fast rise in mortgage rates this year caused an already pricey housing market to become even less affordable.

www.cnbc.com

 

[BMF]

The Euro dipped below $1.00 today, it's at .996 as of 1145am today. Wow.

 

[soflagator]

I remember someone here mentioning this guy as perhaps the most concerning appointee of this administration. Shocker he’s already a problem.

Gary Gensler's gross SEC overreach

Lawyer John Deaton, amici curiae in the landmark SEC vs. Ripple case weighs in on Gary Gensler's ruling iron fist when it comes to cryptocurrency regulation.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[FireFoley]

The Euro dipped below $1.00 today, it's at .996 as of 1145am today. Wow.

Maybe time for a European Vacation since Crete is too busy doing HELOC's? I think Chevy Chase is available and Cousin Eddie (both of them) are available if you want some company?

 

[FireFoley]

Blackstone's Single Family Home division, Home Partners Inc. just announced they will cease buying single family homes in 38 cities beginning Sept. 1st. If I can upload an article I will.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwizjNjKlOP5AhUeQzABHZLrApcQFnoECAgQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fmoneymarketadvisor.com%2F2022%2F08%2F25%2Fblackstone-single-family-landlord-to-halt-home-purchases-in-38-cities%2F&usg=AOvVaw0SIJO3WwGj5IoIgAG-pPxV

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Blackstone's Single Family Home division, Home Partners Inc. just announced they will cease buying single family homes in 38 cities beginning Sept. 1st. If I can upload an article I will.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwizjNjKlOP5AhUeQzABHZLrApcQFnoECAgQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fmoneymarketadvisor.com%2F2022%2F08%2F25%2Fblackstone-single-family-landlord-to-halt-home-purchases-in-38-cities%2F&usg=AOvVaw0SIJO3WwGj5IoIgAG-pPxV

This was the same sentiment that the investors who are purchasing for a hedge fund told me. They have shut down buying except in select areas in Florida and particularly 2 areas in the Orlando area. Both of the areas are nothing special and in fact are older and on the lower property value side.
One is near downtown and the East/West Expressway and the other where mine is very close to the Airport.......Hmmmm.....I'm thinking they known something that most of us don't.....Still with less than 15K into this property and 170K clear walkaway money I think I'd rather walkaway at this point.....

Regarding the overall housing market direction I wouldn't hold my breath for too long thinking property values are going to tank.....Silly Millies are getting their student debt cleared and sometime before the elections the cooks at the BLS will magically make inflation subside to where Jerome can fire up the printing press shortly after the beginning of the year(Wells Fargo is projecting as early as Dec.)There are also new government DP assistance plans in the works....All of these factors combined with the "perceived" dip in prices the press is rambling on about these days and the Milly's will likely create a massive surge in new and used "discounted" homes next spring. Rent won't(and isn't) dereasing fast enough to stop this....

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Finally a common sense article to support what I've been saying.....Seriously if you've been on the fence about buying I'd go ahead and buy as this may be as good as it gets...
Pay close attention to #'s 1,4,7,8,9, 11,12 & 15.....it'll start to make sense. Here's one more to add to...even if inflation subsides building materials simply will not as the cost to produce because of restrictions and hikes in labor rates are here to stay.

15 Reasons Not To Worry if Home Prices Fall

 

[GatorCatsi]

My fantasy is to see a dip happen in late 2023 or early 2024 when we're ready to move back west. Hope to keep our house in KC as a rental.