Run the Derby another 100 times and Rich Strike only wins once. Without question, the Kentucky Derby set up perfectly for him.
Everyone thought that under the recently adopted points system, the sprinters of old that had no realistic change to win, but sneaked in and consequently wrecked the chances for the speed horses, while setting the table for closers (like Rich Strike) to come home late and seemingly blow away the front runners that had burned out their legs, were weeded out of this race because of the longer distances of the prep races they were required to win to qualify for the classics. Given that, over the past 10 or so years, owners and trainers who were focused on winning the Kentucky Derby focused on fast, precocious blood lines that could get out of the gate quickly to avoid the mosh pit of a 20 horse field, and could come home reasonably well. The primary assumption was that the closers wouldn't be able to get free from the tangled mess to run them down.
With that said, I think it is smart for the owners of Smart Strike to completely focus on the horse's recent training patterns AND genetic indicators. Smart Strike is a closer, plain and simple. That means longer races are better suited to his running style (there's a reason he didn't take the lead until late in the KD). Without the blazing pace, even 10 panels likely wouldn't have been enough. Even with the record setting pace, Rich Strike wouldn't have beaten Epicenter had the race ended 1/16th of a mile sooner (the distance of the Preakness), who looms large in the upcoming contest. Epicenter, along with other fresh horses are reason enough for me to think not running him here is a smart choice. If he did run, he would clearly miss all of the other great races that he could otherwise run this this summer and potentially secure the Eclipse award, and would only be left with the hope to run in the Breeder's Cup Classic, which is open to any horse, regardless of age and, in my opinion, is not a race in which the 2022 crop is going to fare well.