Completely agree, especially with precious metals/oil which have wild volatility even without leverage.
That ETF is for day trading only do not hold this very long or you will lose money daily. Look at the charts 5y ,1y, 6 m, 1 m, and you will see holding this long term is a serious loser. Better to go out 6 month to a year and buy some puts if you think it will go down significantly in that time frame. JMO
That 20 point move means an astronomical amount has moved out of debt, but that cash has not been applied to another asset class yet. If 10 yr continues to rise going into Monday, markets could explode higher. We're in a crazy spot right now.
Now, before anyone hammers me on Elliott Waves, I think if you've read anything I've posted, it is but one of MANY "theories"/tools I use, and it is very useful. On their own, we can make fun of/poke holes in ALL of these theories (see Rule of 7's Dow Theory), but if you use say 3 to 5 of these things as tools/guides, and most of them all indicate the same damn thing, I think yer on ta somethin' you can act on. So far, my updates have been pretty damn accurate, but I am very curious, and very nervous, to see how it all holds up as we approach SP500 at the 3400 and above level. This is where I have to really steel myself to trade what's in front of me and not what i THINK and FEEL, and that's hard for everyone. Here's a primer on Elliott Waves if you want to at least get the gist of what I'm talking about with "Waves": Introduction to Elliott Wave Theory
First, when I talk about "waves" in this thread, I'm referring to Elliott Waves. There are "waves within waves" in Elliott Wave Theory. For everything I talk about in this thread, we are currently in the Wave 5 (of 5) up wave (and Wave 5's are long, strong, up waves). This Wave 5 is the finish of a series of 5 waves that make up Wave 1 of a much, much, larger series of 5 waves. So, you'll see me talking about making highs below, and these will be the end of both that Wave 5, the smaller series of Wave 1-5 that it is a part of, but it will also be the end of the much larger up Wave 1 in the bigger series of waves. So that is why you see me talking about "Wave 2"... Wave 2's are sharp, deep, corrective waves in the 5 wave pattern. So the big drop that I refer to as the opportunity to get in cheap again is this Wave 2.... hope that helps!
Update:
First comments on what happens when we top (end of Wave 5) and get the big pullback (Wave 2 in the bigger wave count... Wave 5 would be the end of the bigger Wave 1):
- Dow Transports: still holding, small corrective pattern, strong close friday. Bulls still well in charge.
- R2000: same, still above June highs, small corrective pattern. Bulls still well in charge.
- 10 yr still at .71 holding it's big rise. Bullish for stock markets.
- Dollar still has not broken upward to break resistance and is still bearish. Needs to get above 94 to break bear trend. Bullish for stock markets.
- "Smart money" (commercial hedging) still betting long. Bullish for stock markets.
- All indicate continued bullishness, but as I've said, I'm very wary during this next push up.
- Still on track to get up to 3400-3453 on SP500 by September/October.
- Will probably see a small pullback when we hit near 3400 level (all time high) because it's natural resistance, then move back up. 3453 is going to be a tough level of resistance to break above, but could shoot as high as 3500 before rolling over.
- 3320 is still key support. If we break that, could test 3235 (June high) level, then run up to all time high.
- I still see all time high being taken out before we get the big pull back (big) Wave 2. We'd need to see the leading indicators (first 5 bullets above) break down to get more bearish.
- Gold/Silver - some sideways consolidation, then retest highs ($2076), then we'll see whether it's 2011 redux (breakdown/failure to around $1800-$1850, first two Rule of 7's targets), or they go higher. If it breaks down now to 1800 instead of retesting highs, then we likely get bounce we would indicate next bull leg up. Gotta watch, remember, gold and especially silver, can be volatile as fuk and is susceptible to manipulation (the big silver drop last week was ONE trader, JP Morgan, doing a HUGE dump with a MARKET order. I suspect they will be the same ones buying in big if we get gold down around $1800.
- Bitcoin. Had a big breakout. Still in its Wave 5 up move. Will likely follow what gold does, likely up to near $14000 levels before its big Wave 2 pull back. $11500 is key support right now. If that breaks, Wave 5 still holds after the ABC correction, and the remainder of the Wave 5 up move continues. Bulls are still strongly in control. I know people are skeptical of bitcoin, but it should not be ignored. I think it was around $7200 when I started talking about it in this thread and I'm still very bullish on it. It smashed higher through its upside resistance line from it's previous two highs.
- Hit the SP500 highs mentioned above (3453).
- Using Fibonacci retracements, here are the levels we are looking to drop to:
- 38.2% = 2975 (most likely)
- 50% = 2825
- 61.8% = 2676
- If we shoot higher than 3453, the likelihood of pushing down to 50% or even 61.8% increases.
- Bad news is is that timing wise, this drop is likely going into the November elections, and the next big run up will just be starting (that will be the start of the bigger Wave 3 to newer all time highs).
This is really interesting stuff. I know that it takes more than a minute to put together, so thanks for the effort. BTW - I am one of those skeptical about Bitcoin.First, when I talk about "waves" in this thread, I'm referring to Elliott Waves. There are "waves within waves" in Elliott Wave Theory. For everything I talk about in this thread, we are currently in the Wave 5 (of 5) up wave (and Wave 5's are long, strong, up waves). This Wave 5 is the finish of a series of 5 waves that make up Wave 1 of a much, much, larger series of 5 waves. So, you'll see me talking about making highs below, and these will be the end of both that Wave 5, the smaller series of Wave 1-5 that it is a part of, but it will also be the end of the much larger up Wave 1 in the bigger series of waves. So that is why you see me talking about "Wave 2"... Wave 2's are sharp, deep, corrective waves in the 5 wave pattern. So the big drop that I refer to as the opportunity to get in cheap again is this Wave 2.... hope that helps!
Update:
First comments on what happens when we top (end of Wave 5) and get the big pullback (Wave 2 in the bigger wave count... Wave 5 would be the end of the bigger Wave 1):
- Dow Transports: still holding, small corrective pattern, strong close friday. Bulls still well in charge.
- R2000: same, still above June highs, small corrective pattern. Bulls still well in charge.
- 10 yr still at .71 holding it's big rise. Bullish for stock markets.
- Dollar still has not broken upward to break resistance and is still bearish. Needs to get above 94 to break bear trend. Bullish for stock markets.
- "Smart money" (commercial hedging) still betting long. Bullish for stock markets.
- All indicate continued bullishness, but as I've said, I'm very wary during this next push up.
- Still on track to get up to 3400-3453 on SP500 by September/October.
- Will probably see a small pullback when we hit near 3400 level (all time high) because it's natural resistance, then move back up. 3453 is going to be a tough level of resistance to break above, but could shoot as high as 3500 before rolling over.
- 3320 is still key support. If we break that, could test 3235 (June high) level, then run up to all time high.
- I still see all time high being taken out before we get the big pull back (big) Wave 2. We'd need to see the leading indicators (first 5 bullets above) break down to get more bearish.
- Gold/Silver - some sideways consolidation, then retest highs ($2076), then we'll see whether it's 2011 redux (breakdown/failure to around $1800-$1850, first two Rule of 7's targets), or they go higher. If it breaks down now to 1800 instead of retesting highs, then we likely get bounce we would indicate next bull leg up. Gotta watch, remember, gold and especially silver, can be volatile as fuk and is susceptible to manipulation (the big silver drop last week was ONE trader, JP Morgan, doing a HUGE dump with a MARKET order. I suspect they will be the same ones buying in big if we get gold down around $1800.
- Bitcoin. Had a big breakout. Still in its Wave 5 up move. Will likely follow what gold does, likely up to near $14000 levels before its big Wave 2 pull back. $11500 is key support right now. If that breaks, Wave 5 still holds after the ABC correction, and the remainder of the Wave 5 up move continues. Bulls are still strongly in control. I know people are skeptical of bitcoin, but it should not be ignored. I think it was around $7200 when I started talking about it in this thread and I'm still very bullish on it. It smashed higher through its upside resistance line from it's previous two highs.
- Hit the SP500 highs mentioned above (3453).
- Using Fibonacci retracements, here are the levels we are looking to drop to:
- 38.2% = 2975 (most likely)
- 50% = 2825
- 61.8% = 2676
- If we shoot higher than 3453, the likelihood of pushing down to 50% or even 61.8% increases.
- Bad news is is that timing wise, this drop is likely going into the November elections, and the next big run up will just be starting (that will be the start of the bigger Wave 3 to newer all time highs).
Thanks... just trying to help out (or at least give a "guide post" with the SP500). As for your skepticism, I get it, completely, and I got in reluctantly and treated it "Vegas style" in terms of willingness to lose it, not as a core holding (but it is that now, albeit in a very small way, but still in the "speculative" category). But I think we are at a point where one cannot ignore the cryptos. It's yet another example of of something that was ridiculed as pure "quackery" to where now the Fed openly admits it is collaborating with MIT on a... crypto currency. I still can't believe it in my heart, but my head definitely tells me that we are headed to a digital currency over the next decade, tops.
Would your answer be the same if it was a broader question. I.E., of which are you more skeptical, jet aircraft or virtual currency?
I agree with your point about Boeing (or Kodak, etc.) and I hate the USG picking winners (and thus de-facto "losers"). As for Bitcoin versus gold, at least gold has actual uses - and if nothing else I have yet to meet a female who didn't like it and want to take physical possession! To my way of thinking, there is no comparison between virtual currency and anything else you might invest in. To include actual currency. It may totally be my lack of a complete understanding - and God knows I have had to sit through a bunch of lectures on how it works - but I will leave the investing in it to others. I am fully willing to admit that a lot things discussed in this thread are way outside my wheel house and thus not where I put any money. I am rooting for you though!
