- Jul 29, 2014
- 22,160
- 23,385
FIFY
Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?
- Thread starter ThreatMatrix
- Start date
- Nov 19, 2014
- 9,232
- 14,964
Well Guru's do we have support? It's lunch time, I'm bored and my settlement account is daring me to get back in the game....there's no way Energy can go any lower, right? I just can't be wrong about that 5 times in a row, right?
Patience, Grasshopper, Patience.
If you are talking about the overall market, then you need to be technical based, b/c that is how the market has been working and @Detroitgator is really good with that. If you are talking individual issues whether it be corporate bonds, Muni's, Treasurys or individual stocks, you can have a list and your prices and leg into hose positions. That is kind of what I tend to do as I tend to use these movements to invests vs. trade. but I understand the urge to trade, did it for 25+ years. As far as energy or any other commodity, the best cure for low prices is lower prices, just the like the best cure for high prices was higher prices.
- Dec 31, 2018
- 14,888
- 28,140
As a rather famous Gainesville resident once noted, "The waiting is the hardest part."
I moved a significant chunk (well significant to me anyway) of my TSP (Fed employees 401k for the uninitiated) out of the market into the G fund (govt securities) in late August; based largely because of what @Detroitgator and some other folks I respect were saying. I too would love to jump back in, but the market makes me very nervous right now. As I type this, the S&P is threatening to go back into negative territory from yesterday's close. I think (hope) we'll have a pretty good idea of when to get back in, but it's not right now.
Last edited:
- Jul 29, 2014
- 22,160
- 23,385
Yeah I overstayed my welcome and should have pulled back more into cash last week or sooner. I did cash out a good bit that I made in tech and growth ETF's but then got cute thinking I could squeeze a little more out of Ind. and Energy. That worked for a couple of days but by Friday I should have known better.... I ended up netting about 1/3 of what I had in profits the first week of Sept. 
- Sep 8, 2014
- 25,420
- 59,322
I did the same thing w/ my TSP last week. I have about 85% in fixed or G.
- Jul 15, 2014
- 28,445
- 47,246
Update:
- Still bearish. support demolished, dollar rallying, R2000 broken down well outside channel, Dow Transports breaking down but still in channel...
- We've hit the daily 100 EMA and almost the weekly 21.
- We hit the first Rule of 7's probable target of 3232. Makes likelihood of hitting 2nd probable target of 3145 more likely. 3rd probable target is 3000, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement would be 3055, so those are lining up.
- I am hoping we get that 38.2% "moderate" retracement to 3055-3000.
- If we are only getting a "skinny/stingy" retracement, we might be just about there, which would be a 23.6% retracement to roughly the weekly 21 EMA in the 3232 to 3145 range.
- I expect things to continue to be choppy on a daily basis. Drop, bounce, drop more, bounce... I think a bounce of up to 3% in the short term is fairly probable. If we don't get that bounce in the next two days, I say we drop to the 3145 level.
- So, less likely is that we are very near the bottom of the "stingy" retracement and we start another run up. More likely, we drop more.
- Trade at your own peril right now. It's best to sit tight until this bottoms out and then get in on the the big, long, Wave 3 up move.
- Sep 8, 2014
- 25,420
- 59,322
I took a beating yesterday in my brokerage and Roth. I sold off most of my mutual funds, still holding stocks. NKLA is killing me - but I'm long there, it's an all or bust situation!!
BA looks primed for adding a few shares and AAPL is at a several week low. Great companies, so I'm curious where that goes....
BA looks primed for adding a few shares and AAPL is at a several week low. Great companies, so I'm curious where that goes....
- Jul 15, 2014
- 28,445
- 47,246
- Sep 8, 2014
- 25,420
- 59,322
True. I need to set a purchase price, alert....but I'm fighting on where I should set it. I think BA would be $135 and AAPL would be $101....but that could change on a whim!!
- Jul 15, 2014
- 28,445
- 47,246
- Nov 19, 2014
- 9,232
- 14,964
I think this is one that has caught some people off guard. The dollar seems to be making a stand. I had a nice little profit in my long yen trade as it got to about 104.60 and almost overnight I lost half my profits and closed it around 105.25. Be that as it may, seems to be a bit more interest in selling rallies..
@BMF, BA breaches 150 so I stuck my foot into the water today. No where near a full position and will continue to reassess as it falls, to either build or cut my losses.
- Jul 15, 2014
- 28,445
- 47,246
Update: Again, all off the SP500 term...
General notes:
General notes:
- I still say we topped and are in correction. Question is: how big is the correction?
- R2000 officially broken down and in a down trend but holding major support.
- Dow Transports has now hit all three of my indicators for SP500 going bearish, it did get the "negative divergence" I was looking for. As a leading indicator, it's a signal of weakness.
- Dow Transpiration Index, watching for whether or not it closes below 10940 (support). If it does, and breaks below that and it's upward regression channel, very bearish.
- Dollar still gaining strength. On the monthly chart, it does look like it bottomed. Support for $ is $93.50 to remain bullish.
- So, Wave 1 up is over, question is, what does Wave 2 down look like? Shallow (where we are now or down to 3200-3145 area), moderate (down to 3055-3000), or deep (down to 2890-2725)?
- Futures are up a bunch, but I said we'd likely get a good bounce before more down, so we'll see whether this bounce signals the end of the "shallow" retracement, or is just the bounce before going down to "moderate" (most likely) or "deep" (least likely) drop before big, long, Wave 3 up.
- In my "Elliott Waveland," I think this Wave 2 down move is an "A-B-C" correction where we already had the "A" move down to around 3200, then the "B" wave is a bounce up, then we get the bigger "C" wave down thus completing the "ABC" that makes up the "Wave 2." To be clear, that would mean we already had the A down from the high of almost 3600 to around 3200, we are starting the B up bounce (could be up into the 3400-3500 range), then we get the C wave to the bottom of Wave 2 (I think to the 3055-3000 range). Still following what happened in 1971. We also had an ABC like this in 2009-2010 before the long Wave 3 up move. Bother were 38.2% retracements (my "moderate" scenario). FYI, 38.2% is not of the market level, but of the run up from March bottom to the high.
- Bottom line: we don't know where we are right now. Was last week the bottom and now we start just going up again, or will this be a bounce followed by a sharper drop lower.
- On the weekly chart, it looks like this will just be a bounce, followed bigger move lower. That said, in these situations, there can be a lot of "false signals," it's why I try to look at a lot of things in totality and go from there.
- We are still in wait and see mode. It's too easy to get whipsawed on a daily/weekly basis right now.
- I'm sitting tight to see what the bounce does.
- Sep 8, 2014
- 25,420
- 59,322
BA is up about 10% since you posted this. Nice addition! Looks like the 737 may be back in the air by the end of the year.
- Nov 19, 2014
- 9,232
- 14,964
Well of course I wish I had more. but I never start with a full position. I just thought it was a decent risk/reward entry point. I would have liked it to go down more or had the market tank and see if it held up, but hey it is better to have a little than none at all. After the Max gets approved I think the next thing to look at is air travel in general. If it continues to be sluggish that will hinder BA's potential quick rise. Either way, we are a long way from $400/share where it came from, and might not ever see again.
- Sep 8, 2014
- 25,420
- 59,322
True. I was going to add a bit if it got into the $130's. I agree on travel - that's going to be true w/ airlines and cruise ship stocks as well (which I have a little of).
I'm curious what's going to happen w/ the coming winter - a "spike" in the virus cases and everyone freaks out? Will the election calm things down (I guess it depends on who wins)? Anyhow, I'm down quite a bit over the last 3+ weeks, which sucks. I cashed out on a large portion of my mutual funds, to take some profit (but it was higher a month ago) - a little disappointing. I'm holding some stocks for now. NKLA is killing me - I made a little profit when it shot up...and bought back in when it tanked. The CEO is gone, but he left behind a mess. I knew he was a nut, but didn't figure he was sabotaging things. We'll see what happens - I'm holding w/ the hope they make a rebound. But if travel opens back up I think I'm sitting in a good spot - and it has to open up, sooner or later.....right????
- Nov 19, 2014
- 9,232
- 14,964
Yes, it will eventually open up b/c it is apparent to me here in Florida that people have practically given up and don;t give a shyt anymore. I assume that is everywhere tho. Pandemic fatigue is a thing. Even if there are protocols established by businesses, etc. people are not following them. And the fact that the treatment of this Kung Flu seems to have improved have people letting their guard down. Even before FL went 100% capacity at restaurants the parking lots were practically full even with limited capacity.
I can't comment on NKLA. Not my type of moonshot attempt, but it was confirmed that the CEO is/ was an ass clown and best that he is gone. did the GM investment give th company credence? It seemed to for about 1 day and then the recommend short position and report seems to have more legs than the GM investment. At my age I like when we have huge down draws so I can pick up boring companies that make money, and pay me a secure 6% dividend. I lost the appetite to hope a company that does not make money goes up every day in hopes that it will eventually make money.
- Jun 12, 2014
- 9,565
- 25,291
Founding Member
I bought 10 shares when it dropped below $150 a few days ago. I noticed some big after market movement today and saw this:
- Jul 15, 2014
- 28,445
- 47,246
Update: no change to my last update. We either bottomed at 3236 with the "shallow/skinny" Wave 2 retracement, or, we are in the B wave bounce before the C wave down to around 3000 of the "moderate" Wave 2 retracement (I still see this as the more likely scenario). I'm still in "wait 'n see" mode other than "one off" trades with long dated calls that I usually only hold for 72 hours or less.
