Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

[BMF]

TBLT? I get some 60 cent equity? Is that it or do you mean TLT or TBT which are Treasury ETF's?

TBLT, toughbuilt industries.

 

[FireFoley]

TBLT, toughbuilt industries.

Okay, but why is it a 65 cent stock in the construction business when SWK, MAS, WHR, HD, LOW, and many others are blowing up? Is it b/c they had slowing sales of their Kneepads b/c hookers were out of work during the KUNG FLU?

 

[BMF]

Okay, but why is it a 65 cent stock in the construction business when SWK, MAS, WHR, HD, LOW, and many others are blowing up? Is it b/c they had slowing sales of their Kneepads b/c hookers were out of work during the KUNG FLU?

Up 10% today.

 

[bradgator2]

Heeerreee we gooooooooooooo......

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Holy smokes....looks like hydroxy chloroquine works on the China flu and the economy....

 

[Detroitgator]

Holy smokes....looks like hydroxy chloroquine works on the China flu and the economy....

Dollar down, crude way up, 10 yr way up... all bullish for MARKETS... stop saying "economy!" I fear the "economy" is no where near as good as you think, but the market is. ;)

 

[Detroitgator]

I meant to post my update last night, but here is now (again, based on SP500):

• dollar down, crude way up, 10 yr way up = market bullish.
• Dow Transports still in upward trend channel. Support is still 11080. No sign of bearishness yet.
• R2000 on the weekly chart has a bullish pattern looking like it put in a bottom.
• NASDAQ is not showing a bottom, but that's the only down note right now.
• We are still in a bit of a gray area on my "skinny/shallow" vs. "moderate" retracement scenarios.
• It is increasingly looking like we got the "shallow" retracement (not what I was hoping for) to the 3236 level.
• That 3236 is now key support for SP500. It is a "Dow Theory Sell Signal" and another key support metric.
• As long as we remain above 3236, we are still bullish and will likely slowly push up to 35-3600 and new highs.
• If we close below 3236, we likely get the "moderate" scenario. I think the "deep" scenario is irrelevant unless we do get the "moderate" first.
• We're still in an uncertain phase... with either the "shallow" or "moderate" scenarios, I see us pushing up to 3500 range, then pulling back a bit... that is where we will get confirmation on "skinny" vs "moderate," because that pullback will either then bounce back up and keep climbing (skinny) or fall further to around 3050 level (moderate).
• I'm still wary, and yes, feel like I'm "missing out" a bit, but I haven't lost any money in this either.. trade at your own risk! ;)

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Dollar down, crude way up, 10 yr way up... all bullish for MARKETS... stop saying "economy!" I fear the "economy" is no where near as good as you think, but the market is. ;)

I don't believe the economy is as bad as some might want us to believe ...yes we were shutdown but people had cash in their pockets from the last 2.5-3 years....call it rose colored glasses but when I hear things like boat/RV/swimming pool sales and such are at all time highs I'm not buying doom and gloom. I was in the recreational business(boat sales) from 2004-2010 and when late 2006-2007 hit it was literally like someone turned the lights off. Refi's and home sales just stopped, home improvement stopped, new car sales stopped....everything just stopped. It didn't take 8 months either, it was virtually overnight.
People are still spending money and consumer confidence was at a yearly high the other day...we'll know the outcome going forward on Nov.4th until then watch the newsfeed on your browser.
Trump pledges 'biggest tax cut ever' if he wins election in November

 

[Detroitgator]

I don't believe the economy is as bad as some might want us to believe ...yes we were shutdown but people had cash in their pockets from the last 2.5-3 years....call it rose colored glasses but when I hear things like boat/RV/swimming pool sales and such are at all time highs I'm not buying doom and gloom. I was in the recreational business(boat sales) from 2004-2010 and when late 2006-2007 hit it was literally like someone turned the lights off. Refi's and home sales just stopped, home improvement stopped, new car sales stopped....everything just stopped. It didn't take 8 months either, it was virtually overnight.
People are still spending money and consumer confidence was at a yearly high the other day...we'll know the outcome going forward on Nov.4th until then watch the newsfeed on your browser.
Trump pledges 'biggest tax cut ever' if he wins election in November

Oh I get it, and I'm with ya.... but everything you listed is "debt," and yes, "debt" is being issued at EVERY level like never before, I mean never, not even close.

You know what else is subtle and I haven't seen like this since 2004-5? "Checks" attached to my credit card statements to buy schit... HELOC type ads in the mail.... I haven't seen credit card checks in literally 10 years.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Oh I get it, and I'm with ya.... but everything you listed is "debt," and yes, "debt" is being issued at EVERY level like never before, I mean never, not even close.

You know what else is subtle and I haven't seen like this since 2004-5? "Checks" attached to my credit card statements to buy schit... HELOC type ads in the mail.... I haven't seen credit card checks in literally 10 years.

I have no doubts we will come tumbling down but I need a few more years to position myself better for the fall. There are 3 different types of people in a true sustained recession/depression. The sinkers, the swimmers, and the salvagers.
You know as well as anyone cash money will pick up other peoples failed debt(foreclosure/repossessions)at 50%-60% of their retail value and I plan on being on being a salvager instead of a swimmer this time around...Not just RE either boat repos, autos and heavy equipment means you can have toys and still sell them at a nice profit.

 

[Thought Criminal]

I don't believe the economy is as bad as some might want us to believe

One danger is that the real unemployment number is much lower than the government number because many not seeking jobs are still calculated in... no one wants to work because of the Federal tack-on to unemployment proceeds over the summer. Many getting $875/week to do nothing, often more than 2x what they made while working. Just anecdotal but I'm seeing clients struggling to find unskilled/semi-skilled labor or office support even at $15-17 with comprehensive benefits.

You'd think the problem will right itself eventually if no changes to the social safety net... they'll have no choice. But so far it hasn't happened.

 

[FireFoley]

Dollar down, crude way up, 10 yr way up... all bullish for MARKETS... stop saying "economy!" I fear the "economy" is no where near as good as you think, but the market is. ;)

True Dat.

Your analysis is exactly my thoughts in response to what @Concrete Helmet is thinking. Listen I love his enthusiasm and he is in the housing market per se, so I get it. but I am such a simple thinker and you put it perfectly in that all those RV's being "bought" all those pools being "built",etc. etc. is being done of credit and fake money. You are 100% correct. those moves in rates, oil, etc. are all bullish for the MARKET, but every jackass talking head says exactly the same thing as to why the market is going up: STIMULATE ME MONEY. the economy blows chunks. Reading over the weekend about the highest level of residential utility bills going unpaid, credit card delinquency, severe apt. rent payments missed at all time high in Vegas. Just saw that Venmo is issuing a credit card with cash back bonuses. This just pushes people to spend money they DON'T have.

Back to rates. The 10 yr. is a smidge under 10 basis points higher today. Huge % move but still only 75 basis points. which stocks in the S&P 500 are at the top of the loss list. DHI. LEN, TOL, etc. The largest of the large homebuilders. If that does not say that housing has pushed that string as far as it can go then nothing does. a small move up in rates has housing stocks down over 3%? Call me skeptical.

 

[BMF]

One danger is that the real unemployment number is much lower than the government number because many not seeking jobs are still calculated in... no one wants to work because of the Federal tack-on to unemployment proceeds over the summer. Many getting $875/week to do nothing, often more than 2x what they made while working. Just anecdotal but I'm seeing clients struggling to find unskilled/semi-skilled labor or office support even at $15-17 with comprehensive benefits.

You'd think the problem will right itself eventually if no changes to the social safety net... they'll have no choice. But so far it hasn't happened.

Another point on the unemployment rate - the blue states that are still semi (or nearly full) locked down (and NYC just issued another shutdown), if these states opened back up, or opened up over 50%, the unemployment rate would drop 1 to 1.5% (or more). Just California, New Jersey, & New York opening up would drop the unemployment rate significantly. Tack on Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Massachusetts and a few other states and we're probably back under 6.

 

[Detroitgator]

I bought the dip... we'll see how that goes!

 

[FireFoley]

I bought the dip... we'll see how that goes!

Good luck. I said it in my most recent post that the market was hanging onto "Stimulate Me Money". Well apparently Prez Tweeter told Mnuchin to cease negotiations and you saw what happened. That was clearly Exhibit A as to what was going on. Now is that for real or is it a ploy? If it is a ploy, then if a rumor swirls that hag face calls Mnuchin or vice versa, then perhaps you will be good. I think the downside is probably limited b/c "Stimulate Me Money" is going to happen, it will just be about the timing. Sort of like the old fruit chews "Now or Later"? Oh those were Now And Later, but it was just a poor attempt at humor.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Nothing gained nothing lost......until Thursday. Back slowly outta growth if you're a simpleton ETF guy like me, is my advice. And if you remember nothing else remember Trump is keeping powder dry too...

 

[FireFoley]

I bought the dip... we'll see how that goes!

Well done, for now, LOL. Perhaps keep those stops tight just in case Prez Tweeter decides against even targeted Stimulate Me Money which has this market up, today at least? Funny thing I heard 2 days ago about the idea of the DUMS sweeping in Nov. would all but guarantee a HUGE spending bill, upwards of 10 TRILLION, had the markets up on that day. That might be the beginning of the end. Awesome for markets short term, but that would stoke the inflation that has been missing from the FED's purview.

 

[Detroitgator]

I meant to post my update last night, but here is now (again, based on SP500):

• dollar down, crude way up, 10 yr way up = market bullish.
• Dow Transports still in upward trend channel. Support is still 11080. No sign of bearishness yet.
• R2000 on the weekly chart has a bullish pattern looking like it put in a bottom.
• NASDAQ is not showing a bottom, but that's the only down note right now.
• We are still in a bit of a gray area on my "skinny/shallow" vs. "moderate" retracement scenarios.
• It is increasingly looking like we got the "shallow" retracement (not what I was hoping for) to the 3236 level.
• That 3236 is now key support for SP500. It is a "Dow Theory Sell Signal" and another key support metric.
• As long as we remain above 3236, we are still bullish and will likely slowly push up to 35-3600 and new highs.
• If we close below 3236, we likely get the "moderate" scenario. I think the "deep" scenario is irrelevant unless we do get the "moderate" first.
• We're still in an uncertain phase... with either the "shallow" or "moderate" scenarios, I see us pushing up to 3500 range, then pulling back a bit... that is where we will get confirmation on "skinny" vs "moderate," because that pullback will either then bounce back up and keep climbing (skinny) or fall further to around 3050 level (moderate).
• I'm still wary, and yes, feel like I'm "missing out" a bit, but I haven't lost any money in this either.. trade at your own risk! ;)

No change to this update going into today and Friday. Support is 3360 right now for potential push up into 3450-3500 range.

 

[Detroitgator]

Well done, for now, LOL. Perhaps keep those stops tight just in case Prez Tweeter decides against even targeted Stimulate Me Money which has this market up, today at least? Funny thing I heard 2 days ago about the idea of the DUMS sweeping in Nov. would all but guarantee a HUGE spending bill, upwards of 10 TRILLION, had the markets up on that day. That might be the beginning of the end. Awesome for markets short term, but that would stoke the inflation that has been missing from the FED's purview.

It's working ok so far... added UCO yesterday when oil was lagging the market. As for Dems, yes, Wall Street wants them more than Trump for the reasons you state. I said in one of my updates months ago that like it or not, Biden is actually better for the MARKETS than Trump because there is no question that there would be more debt than "merely" Trump level debt. ;)

 

[Detroitgator]

Well, the ETFs I bought on Tuesday are up anywhere between 5.46% and 5.99%... now I have the weekly dilemma: dump going into the close, or hold over the weekend and wonder what madness will ensue over those 60 hours?