Advice on a stock I own: APC (Anadarko Petroleum)

[FireFoley]

Congrats @BMF. No one ever went broke taking a profit. You trimmed your position into the first move and held a little for the next move. Nothing wrong with that. You can't look at "what if" in the stock/bond game. The only thing I found surprising after the pre open draw down in OXY's stock, was how well it performed the rest of the day. It was hardly down that much considering their offer price. I think that will force CVX to respond more quickly. Had OXY stayed below 57 like it was trading pre market, then CVX could take their sweet time. But OXY stock hanging in there means its currency is a little stronger than I thought it would be.

 

[GatorInGeorgia]

I sold! It got over 12% up and I pulled the trigger.

So....it's probably a good time to buy, it'll likely go up now!

re: the stock will now go up.

Good for you on the profit. I’m probably going to give this a little more time. How much, I can’t say for certain. Maybe a few weeks. I think (and hope) that APC stock should have support at these levels until more info comes out. If CVX up’s their bid, I feel good and if they bail, maybe Oxy either gets reconsideration as the suitor of choice or maybe they add a few more bucks to their offer so as to force the issue.

 

[BMF]

re: the stock will now go up.

Good for you on the profit. I’m probably going to give this a little more time. How much, I can’t say for certain. Maybe a few weeks. I think (and hope) that APC stock should have support at these levels until more info comes out. If CVX up’s their bid, I feel good and if they bail, maybe Oxy either gets reconsideration as the suitor of choice or maybe they add a few more bucks to their offer so as to force the issue.

Good luck GiG. I think you'll do fine, I don't see it dropping anytime soon. I'm okay w/ the profit I made.....and this was actually a surprise to me, so it was a nice bonus. I had actually bought about 50 shares two weeks before the big jump (at $44), wish I had known there was a possible deal in the pipeline.

 

[FireFoley]

Good luck GiG. I think you'll do fine, I don't see it dropping anytime soon. I'm okay w/ the profit I made.....and this was actually a surprise to me, so it was a nice bonus. I had actually bought about 50 shares two weeks before the big jump (at $44), wish I had known there was a possible deal in the pipeline.

Membership has its privileges, or so they say, LOL. Helps to be on the "inside"

 

[BMF]

re: the stock will now go up.

Good for you on the profit. I’m probably going to give this a little more time. How much, I can’t say for certain. Maybe a few weeks. I think (and hope) that APC stock should have support at these levels until more info comes out. If CVX up’s their bid, I feel good and if they bail, maybe Oxy either gets reconsideration as the suitor of choice or maybe they add a few more bucks to their offer so as to force the issue.

It hit $73 today!

 

[bradgator2]

I jump on Pinterest: PINS

It sounds so dumb... but all I know is my wife and her friends spend 10x more time on that site than any other website on the planet

Ok... wth is going on with this stock? Makes no sense.

Up 15% today alone. It has almost doubled in price since it's IPO 6 days ago. I jumped on the train on the 2nd day.

 

[GatorInGeorgia]

It hit $73 today!

APC’s board has agreed to re-open negotiations with Oxy and they’ve indicated the Oxy offer could be a superior offer to the Chevron bid so things are getting interesting.

APC reported earnings last week and beat (pretty easily) on the top & bottom lines so that adds a little more to the equation.

Only real potential downside I see is if CVX stands pat and refuses to up their offer. That might cause APC share price to pause or even pull back below $70. I still think any suitor that gets APC for $85 or below is getting a good deal. I think I’d have to sell out at $80 if it hits that and take my profit.

 

[FireFoley]

Why do I get this sneaky suspicion that CVX is going to play possum on this deal? It is my understanding that CVX only has 4 days to respond, therefore OXY can prop its own stock up for a few days and make the deal look better. CVX could stay silent and when OXY discovers how difficult it is to take over a company that has almost the same market cap as it does in APC, CVX will come swooping in and possibly buy OXY (which will then be OXY+APC) for about the same price they would have had to pay for APC only now. Stay tuned.

 

[FireFoley]

Well, well, well, the Oracle of Omaha (Warren Buffet) strikes again, just like he did during the financial crises by giving billions of bux to a couple of banks in exchange for preferred stock yielding 10+%. This time, Buffett has agreed to give OXY 10 BILLION smackers in exchange for 100,000 preferred shares at $100,000 par value per share, with a perpetual yield of 8% annually. Along with that, he receives warrants to purchase an additional 80 million common shares of OXY at $62.50/share. Of course all of this is contingent on OXY getting APC. This would bolster OXY's cash position to make the deal along with other shareholder confidence, so if it happens old Warren would pull down a cool $800 MILLION per year just in preferred dividends. And if that happens and OXY's stock should rise, Buffett could exercise his warrants and be in the money on his common shares and pick up another 5+% annually in common stock dividends. It must really suck having that much money and being the vulture when all the roadkill is strewn all over the road. Just ask ole Warren and Wilbur Ross!!!!!!!!!!

 

[BMF]

Well, well, well, the Oracle of Omaha (Warren Buffet) strikes again, just like he did during the financial crises by giving billions of bux to a couple of banks in exchange for preferred stock yielding 10+%. This time, Buffett has agreed to give OXY 10 BILLION smackers in exchange for 100,000 preferred shares at $100,000 par value per share, with a perpetual yield of 8% annually. Along with that, he receives warrants to purchase an additional 80 million common shares of OXY at $62.50/share. Of course all of this is contingent on OXY getting APC. This would bolster OXY's cash position to make the deal along with other shareholder confidence, so if it happens old Warren would pull down a cool $800 MILLION per year just in preferred dividends. And if that happens and OXY's stock should rise, Buffett could exercise his warrants and be in the money on his common shares and pick up another 5+% annually in common stock dividends. It must really suck having that much money and being the vulture when all the roadkill is strewn all over the road. Just ask ole Warren and Wilbur Ross!!!!!!!!!!

Wow!

I went back into my account to review the trades...I cost myself a few thousand dollars selling over half the stock when it first shot up. DAMMIT!

 

[FireFoley]

Don't look back @BMF but I know it is human nature. But no one ever went broke taking a profit or trimming on up moves. It is those who sell into the panics who end up suffering. Take that money and look to deploy it as you choose and there is never any hurry. There is a train leaving the station every hour. Remember, we don;t care where the price of any asset was, we care where it is going!!!!

 

[BMF]

Well, well, well, the Oracle of Omaha (Warren Buffet) strikes again, just like he did during the financial crises by giving billions of bux to a couple of banks in exchange for preferred stock yielding 10+%. This time, Buffett has agreed to give OXY 10 BILLION smackers in exchange for 100,000 preferred shares at $100,000 par value per share, with a perpetual yield of 8% annually. Along with that, he receives warrants to purchase an additional 80 million common shares of OXY at $62.50/share. Of course all of this is contingent on OXY getting APC. This would bolster OXY's cash position to make the deal along with other shareholder confidence, so if it happens old Warren would pull down a cool $800 MILLION per year just in preferred dividends. And if that happens and OXY's stock should rise, Buffett could exercise his warrants and be in the money on his common shares and pick up another 5+% annually in common stock dividends. It must really suck having that much money and being the vulture when all the roadkill is strewn all over the road. Just ask ole Warren and Wilbur Ross!!!!!!!!!!

Thoughts on buying OXY?

 

[BMF]

Ok... wth is going on with this stock? Makes no sense.

Up 15% today alone. It has almost doubled in price since it's IPO 6 days ago. I jumped on the train on the 2nd day.

I don't know anything about pintrest, but you're right that the ladies love it. Keep us updated.

 

[GatorInGeorgia]

Thoughts on buying OXY?

Personally I’d hold off on buying Oxy. If they win the bidding war for APC I think there may be a lid on upside for Oxy stock, at least for the time being. Maybe consider some other beaten down names in the energy sector that are more likely to be bought out rather than being the acquirer.

 

[FireFoley]

Thoughts on buying OXY?

My thoughts have changed drastically. The day they upped their bid and before Buffett was involved the stock was down 4 or 5 bux pre market. I bought it thinking that CVX would come back in a few weeks and up their bid and OXY would return to 61ish. Well it went right back up that day. And when I read the deal that Buffett got, I called my friend and said no way am I buying OXY now, even as it has gone back down. That deal they gave Buffett is absurd for OXY. They could have raised that much money in the public market at half the cost they gave Buffett. and the tag leads me to believe that CVX will stay away and let OXY try and go forward with their deal. I understand why OXY wants APC, but in the end the only winner is Buffet and his $800 MILLION in preferred dividends he will receive annually!

 

[FireFoley]

Well APC's board has nullified its deal with CVX and moved on to approve the OXY deal, which does not need shareholder approval. I think that CVX will not respond and just let OXY try to integrate APC, etc. And after a year or so when OXY is struggling to satisfy that $800 Million preferred dividend noose going to Buffett, that CVX will waltz in and pick up the combined company, reach into their petty cash box and send OXY's mgmt team on their way.

 

[GatorInGeorgia]

Well APC's board has nullified its deal with CVX and moved on to approve the OXY deal, which does not need shareholder approval. I think that CVX will not respond and just let OXY try to integrate APC, etc. And after a year or so when OXY is struggling to satisfy that $800 Million preferred dividend noose going to Buffett, that CVX will waltz in and pick up the combined company, reach into their petty cash box and send OXY's mgmt team on their way.

I’m guessing the opposite will happen. I think CVX will up their offer. I said when the deal was first announced that CVX was stealing APC at $65 per share, and also thought APC should fetch $80 minimum (even though I believe that is still undervaluing the company. So now Oxy is offering $76 but most of it in cash, which means that CVX will need to offer $80/$82 per share minimum to secure the deal, IMO. I think CVX will do that. A few reasons are 1) I think CVX lowballed the savings they would achieve with the merger so they have more room in their bid to up the price 2) the LNG project in Africa is very valuable and has tremendous upside and 3) GOM and Permian synergies are too compelling for CVX to pass up. It also keeps strategic assets out of their competitors’ hands. CVX isn’t getting the combined entity in a few years for the same price they are offering today, that’s not happening.

Even if CVX doesn’t budge, I’m still good as Oxy’s $76 nearly all cash offer should keep APC’s price per share close to that price. As it stands, I think APC share price has another $6 upside, give or take. If CVX comes back over the top, I’m a happy camper. If they don’t, I get somewhere close to mid $70s for my APC shares. Either way, we will know by Friday where we stand. Just my thoughts on how this shakes out.

 

[BMF]

I’m guessing the opposite will happen. I think CVX will up their offer. I said when the deal was first announced that CVX was stealing APC at $65 per share, and also thought APC should fetch $80 minimum (even though I believe that is still undervaluing the company. So now Oxy is offering $76 but most of it in cash, which means that CVX will need to offer $80/$82 per share minimum to secure the deal, IMO. I think CVX will do that. A few reasons are 1) I think CVX lowballed the savings they would achieve with the merger so they have more room in their bid to up the price 2) the LNG project in Africa is very valuable and has tremendous upside and 3) GOM and Permian synergies are too compelling for CVX to pass up. It also keeps strategic assets out of their competitors’ hands. CVX isn’t getting the combined entity in a few years for the same price they are offering today, that’s not happening.

Even if CVX doesn’t budge, I’m still good as Oxy’s $76 nearly all cash offer should keep APC’s price per share close to that price. As it stands, I think APC share price has another $6 upside, give or take. If CVX comes back over the top, I’m a happy camper. If they don’t, I get somewhere close to mid $70s for my APC shares. Either way, we will know by Friday where we stand. Just my thoughts on how this shakes out.

So the question is:

Is CVX or OXY a buy?

 

[GatorInGeorgia]

So the question is:

Is CVX or OXY a buy?

Whichever one doesn’t get APC is a buy. Not much help as once we have the answer part of the price pop will occur pretty quickly and you’ll lose out on some of the gain. One caveat...even if CVX doesn’t win APC I think they will try and buy another company so there will be some headwinds short term for CVX as an acquirer. Maybe look at some other oil companies that may be acquired. MRO looks pretty attractive IMO. Maybe DVN...

 

[Gator By Marriage]

Front page story in the business section of today's Wall Street Journal on Occidental's offer to Anadarko. Did not have time to read it all yet, but it sounds like good news for their shareholders.