Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

Discussion in 'Business, Investing & Finance' started by ThreatMatrix, Feb 29, 2020.

  1. ThreatMatrix

    ThreatMatrix In shambles
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    Nike stock is down 10%. Seems like a quick way to make a few bucks when it returns.
    Anybody remember the Bhopal disaster 35 years ago. Dow Chemical dropped like a rock. Of course it came back once the hysteria subsided. I learned then that these events are an opportunity to buy.
     
    • soflagator

      soflagator Senior Member
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      On a personal level, I’m not an individual stock picker generally, but the absolute beating Southwest has taken in the past month intrigues me. I also think companies like Toll Brothers are being knocked down to more realistic valuations while still being solid companies. I may look to scale in, especially if it continues lower. As you alluded to, this is probably way over done and, like ‘08, there will be money to be made.

      On a business level, I am naked on some oil derivatives to the down side, so take anything I say with a grain of salt, as I spent a good portion of last week unwinding a potential disaster, at times in overnight trading. If you don’t hear from me as of 6 tomorrow night, it’s likely that I’m being carried off to a hospital like Randolph Duke.
       
      • FireFoley

        FireFoley Senior Member
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        I am in there every day trying to buy individual stocks at extremely lower prices. I place between 20 and 50 small orders every day at prices that may look ridiculous, but you never know what you might get filled on if the algo's kick in. I mean the 5 largest integrated oil companies have dividend yields between 6-9%, yet they fall like stones everyday, sans Friday. JPMorgan has gone from 141 to 113. Is it time? Electric Utilitirs went down between 10-20% in two days, yet still have high PE's. Cigarette companies, chemicals have 7+ % dividend yields now? The problem with many of these is no growth so maybe the dividend gets cut? I have no idea, but just adding to the chat. But then you have growth companies like a Nike mentioned earlier or Microsoft went from 190 to 155 in a blink But my thought is if my prices get hit then I don;t look back b/c that is where I was wiling to get in.

        All that aside I am not sure much of the younger generation even looks at individual equities. I think the ones who are active are trading the triple levereged ETF's and either making a mint or getting carried out in body bags.

        As an aside, you have some former Fed heads and Prez Tweeter calling for a rate cut and/or globalized/centralized rate cuts. Does anyone have a view on how that might affect the markets. Perhaps it could be used to treat any new positions as trades? I mean rates are already essentially zero. Companies don;t need a rate cut to issue debt and raise money. they can raise all the money they need now and more. The Fed is already controlling the overnite repo market so that does not need to be fixed. I just don;t see what a rate cut would do other than cause the algo's to be set in motion. And after an initial whatever, would it really change what is going on economically or with the Chinese Flu???
         
        #3 FireFoley, Mar 1, 2020
        Last edited: Mar 1, 2020
        • Concrete Helmet

          Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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          I learned a pretty good lesson about investing in too many Mutual Funds that I've bought in the past 6-8 month's. Last week I pulled what I thought would be enough out of a large cap and global Mutual funds and went with 1 LT Bond and 1 intermediate bond ETF's....frequent trading restrictions left me stuck with more money in those mutual funds than I would have liked by Wednesday-Thursday and not trading in real time screwed me out of good gains when I went into a 3rd balanced fund to put more in those BF ETF's on Friday morning.....needless to say the BF's jumped up to new highs Friday....I got stuck losing 2 cents a share in the MF instead of making over $2 a share in the LT ETF.....:banghead:

          I'm learning hard way :lol: but one day I hope to have the confidence to handle a larger piece of my retirement.
           
          • bradgator2

            bradgator2 Internet Bully
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            Yeah, I’ve had a little waiting on the sideline and jumped in Friday morning. Some nike, KO, cisco, Plug.

            Thinking about some raytheon and boeing.
             
            • daytonacane

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              Royal Caribbean took a nose dive and I just purchased 300 more shares. If you have a minimum of 100 shares you qualify for VIP treatment on cruises.
               
              • FireFoley

                FireFoley Senior Member
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                The cruise lines, airlines and casinos are all getting shellacked. I have been watching all those sectors but they are all havens for virus spreads b/c they are all enclosed and captive, regardless of magnitude. But you make a good point. RCL went from 130 to the 70's and CCL went from 55 to 30. Both have attractive dividend's now and if the sentiment changes, these stocks could be good plays.
                 
                • GatorInGeorgia

                  GatorInGeorgia Senior Member
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                  Daytonacane, the VIP treatment you referenced, what exactly do they provide? Is this something that is guaranteed or is it a situation where a cruise line employee gave you a few freebies when they found out you own shares! What exactly do they give to VIPs?
                   
                  • GatorInGeorgia

                    GatorInGeorgia Senior Member
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                    They can keep forcing more & more assets (be it personal or corporate) into equities to chase needed yield. Insurance companies & pensions need a steady source of yield that the bond market has been lacking.

                    And yes, while rates here in the U.S. are almost zero, they could go negative if policy makers felt the need to do so. The 10 year German Bund is currently about NEGATIVE 61bps and the 10 year Japanese treasury is about NEGATIVE 11bps. About a year ago, I read a stat that something like 20% of global government debt issued in the prior 12 or 24 months was at negative rates, so it’s not out of the question.
                     
                    • 78

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                      Good luck trying to outsmart this market beyond longer duration treasurys. Fear, speculation and greed are running amok, as usual during periods of high uncertainty like this.

                      Stay true to your investment goals, beginning and ending with TIME HORIZON. And if you’re going to pour money into stocks, choose high-quality, cash-rich companies that pay a reasonable dividend.

                      With the Fed’s commitment, CDs are dead for the foreseeable future. Investors are looking for income AND growth.
                       
                      • Detroitgator

                        Detroitgator General Factotum
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                        I've held (and add to) RTN, GD, LMT, NOC, and HII forever. I never touched Boeing because of its commercial side exposure. We had a discussion about this a year or so ago when several here assured us that the 787 Max problems would be fixed in a few weeks. ;)
                         
                        • ChiefGator

                          ChiefGator A Chief and a Gator, Master of the Ignore list!!!!

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                          Being very conservative I have not purchased anything. Travel type of organizations would be good but where is the bottom? Rate reductions do little to nothing about overly emotional fear so while they are good to make us more competitive I don't think they will do much for the market or the economy.

                          I hope that business will learn not to have one supply chain especially to say China and will consider having their production in say the US, Mexico, or other areas of cheap labor closer to home and with less risk.
                           
                        • Taco Gratis

                          Taco Gratis Clear eyes. Full hearts.

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                          On the other side of the coronavirus trade:


                          Speculators be speculating.
                           
                          • 78

                            78 Dazed and Confused
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                            This gives new meaning to emerging debt.
                             
                            • ThreatMatrix

                              ThreatMatrix In shambles
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                              Good advice but sometimes the market gives you a gift and that time appears to be now. No doubt everything will be back in a few months. The trick is timing the low. Also, I suppose, if it lasts long enough some cruise line, airline, etc. might not be able to weather the storm. So some caution is advisable.
                               
                            • 78

                              78 Dazed and Confused
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                              Maybe we are nearing a market bottom. Maybe we aren’t. It’s impossible to know the full extent of the damage across the globe due to supply chain disruptions, factory slowdowns, reduced consumer activity out of avoiding human contact, and probably three or four other factors. Economic data isn’t realtime; it’s generally with an eight- to 12-week delay. I think we’re only scratching the surface of our understanding of how deep the impact.

                              How do you price these things in to the market with that much unknown circulating about? You can’t.

                              China accounted for 4% of global GDP during the SARS epidemic in 2003. That figure is over 16% at present. Their economy was ripping at 10% in 2003. It’s now 6% and vulnerable from a number of angles, supply and demand. What happens when we determine they’re in a deep recession? May not happen, but I’m not betting on that, not yet.

                              Scott Minerd, one of the sharper minds in my industry, thinks we could see another 15% market downside. Wouldn’t surprise me. As new data comes in, the market will be repriced, and selling will come in waves. I’ve been through three recessions managing money. It’s an ugly, sloppy, at times unnerving process. That it is all linked to a virus that is very stealthy until it’s too late just adds to the uncertainty.

                              The market presents better value now than it did on Valentines Day, but that’s not to suggest introducing new cash now won’t end up being an exercise in catching a falling machete. I certainly wouldn’t do it with money that may need to be deployed for living expenses in the next few years. If it doesn’t, give it a shot with quality companies. But beware.
                               
                              • AugustaGator

                                AugustaGator Junior Member
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                                The impact is bad and China still hasn’t opened. This may do them more harm than they realize. It’s hurting us pretty good too.
                                 
                              • 78

                                78 Dazed and Confused
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                                The ripple effect is beginning to show in credit and funding markets globally. When businesses begin to experience cash flow issues, you have yourself a problem.

                                While I’m at it, extend that same logic to the consumer.

                                We really don’t have a handle on the full impact, and probably won’t for some time.
                                 
                                • Concrete Helmet

                                  Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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                                  Again it's all for the better as long as people don't go coo coo ballistic and vote Trump out of the office. Even talking with several Liberals I know they think this will all be behind us in a matter of 1-3 months.....If DT is still in office the "fallout" from this and subsequent changes will push the SM over 35K in 2 years....we will see full repatriation put back in place which is what fueled the 2017-2020 surge in the economy...lower 50% wage earners will see the bulk of wage growth again and the economy will explode....
                                   
                                • AugustaGator

                                  AugustaGator Junior Member
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                                  Well if people don’t have right expectations they are likely to blame Trump. I don’t want to see that happen.
                                   

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