Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

[Concrete Helmet]

I hate to break it to ya Crete, but Trump is a player in the game now, not the Coach, nor the guy to fix it. Still better than the alternative, but he's gone 'round the bend just like every one of them, regardless of party.

A player for sure but something I don't think some realize is that this "depression" or "recession" is different in 4 ways than those before it.
One corps are still cash heavy(most) from the 2017 tax cuts and repatriation of overseas TAX FREE money....you will see and hear more about this come July/August.
Two there is very little if any inflation....
Three, people have money in their pockets either through assistance or surplus from the last 3 years....
Fourth is interest rates are low and people will continue to buy and borrow....from where I sit I haven't seen the slightest slow down in consumer spending habits.The only thing slowing the process is logistics and some supply chain issues(remember a couple of month's back when we were all going to starve to death)....barely any interruption so far and a lot of states just started re opening.

It's my opinion that anyone taking too bearish a stance will miss out. Do I agree that we are kicking the can down the road? Yes, but now is not the time to address it even if it can ever be addressed.....when in Rome......

 

[FireFoley]

One of these days I will learn not to care why the stock market goes up and all the shyt under the hood. Today the FED announced it will purchase INDIVIDUAL CORPORATE BONDS on top of the silly ETF's they are buying already. So as long as a company was 1 step above dogshyt rated on March 22nd and 5 or less years to maturity, the FED might buy your bonds. Each day another step to completely rigged and less price discovery. Up next TBA individual stock purchases. When that happens I hope they buy some of the shyt I own. The good stuff does not need the FED's help! Add Free Market Capitalism to dinosaurs, customer service and common sense on the extinction list.

 

[Detroitgator]

One of these days I will learn not to care why the stock market goes up and all the shyt under the hood. Today the FED announced it will purchase INDIVIDUAL CORPORATE BONDS on top of the silly ETF's they are buying already. So as long as a company was 1 step above dogshyt rated on March 22nd and 5 or less years to maturity, the FED might buy your bonds. Each day another step to completely rigged and less price discovery. Up next TBA individual stock purchases. When that happens I hope they buy some of the shyt I own. The good stuff does not need the FED's help! Add Free Market Capitalism to dinosaurs, customer service and common sense on the extinction list.

With each of these announcements, just remember, it means they have already been doing it, sometimes for years, even decades, not that they are merely starting "now." Example? "Yield curve management."

Again, using the S&P for charting/reference, and given that we didn't break structure last week (fell to bottom of channel, but not out), we will probably run up to around 3300, then it could get dicey for a bit.

 

[FireFoley]

Perhaps it's time to change the title thread and/or start a new thread? Anyone hopping on board the FED driven bus? I have been away from my main screens for a while but when I am able to watch the talking heads, to a person, 100% say this is nothing but a sea of liquidity going into financial assets. We all knew that, but when thoughtful guys like Jim Bianco have to concede that in the short to medium term this is a one way ticket, then you know it is no longer a market.

 

[Detroitgator]

Perhaps it's time to change the title thread and/or start a new thread? Anyone hopping on board the FED driven bus? I have been away from my main screens for a while but when I am able to watch the talking heads, to a person, 100% say this is nothing but a sea of liquidity going into financial assets. We all knew that, but when thoughtful guys like Jim Bianco have to concede that in the short to medium term this is a one way ticket, then you know it is no longer a market.

I'm not sure why you've been fighting the "FED bus"... it is very clear, and yes, I'm about 50% on board, but waiting for this run up to top (I think around S&P 3300), then I think we get another BIG pullback (but not to March lows) that will be the last great chance to get in low before an even bigger, much bigger, run up that we go well past the previous market highs. I'll push my other 50% in at that pullback. That pullback was not this week, we didn't break the channel at the lows this week, we bounced off the bottom of it.

In this FED bus game, I am 100% technical/charts and watching the 10 yr... there is absolutely NO need to be worrying about fundamentals and news, because they are irrelevant in this complete distortion. Like this week... they said the sell off was due to Corona fears over the case increase... no, we hit the top of the channel on Friday. Did we rally because the Corona fear went away overnight? Riiiiiiight...

I'm playing most things as straight up bullish buys, but am doing more in more with long dated options (like March '21) to take full advantage.

 

[FireFoley]

I'm not sure why you've been fighting the "FED bus"... it is very clear, and yes, I'm about 50% on board, but waiting for this run up to top (I think around S&P 3300), then I think we get another BIG pullback (but not to March lows) that will be the last great chance to get in low before an even bigger, much bigger, run up that we go well past the previous market highs. I'll push my other 50% in at that pullback. That pullback was not this week, we didn't break the channel at the lows this week, we bounced off the bottom of it.

In this FED bus game, I am 100% technical/charts and watching the 10 yr... there is absolutely NO need to be worrying about fundamentals and news, because they are irrelevant in this complete distortion. Like this week... they said the sell off was due to Corona fears over the case increase... no, we hit the top of the channel on Friday. Did we rally because the Corona fear went away overnight? Riiiiiiight...

I'm playing most things as straight up bullish buys, but am doing more in more with long dated options (like March '21) to take full advantage.

Did you happen to see the short TV interview with Jeremy Grantham today? Says his confidence level is increasingly growing that this is the fourth bubble of his career. But of course did say that as with all bubbles it could go on for quite a while. Did laugh when he said That this particular market had quite the Chutzpah to do what it is doing in the middle of a worldwide shutdown, LOL. thank you Central Banks.

 

[FireFoley]

An Institutional Investor Hall of Famer sees more trouble lurking in the market.

Richard Bernstein warns unprecedented Federal Reserve policies may eventually cause serious harm.

He cites near record deficits and aggressive efforts to increase the money supply among the biggest problems.

“I’m surprised that people aren’t more concerned about what huge monetary growth means for the economy in the United States now,” the CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday.

Bernstein is particularly concerned about the vast bond purchases the Fed is making right now.

“They’ve effectively turned the bond market into third grade soccer,” Bernstein said. “There are no winners or losers. Everybody gets a participation medal, and one has to wonder by taking out the risk return consideration from a huge market — what that means for misallocation of capital, where a bubble is going to form and things like that.”

Yet Bernstein, a CNBC contributor who has spent decades on Wall Street, acknowledges extreme monetary and fiscal measures have been crucial to avoid a depression-like scenario and get the economy back on track.

“We all agree we need very thick cushions right now,” said Bernstein.

Even before the coronavirus pandemic started making headlines, he saw fundamental problems emerging in the economy and started to play defense.

Bernstein is still slightly overweight in consumer staples and health care, but he started to increase his exposure to economically sensitive groups including energy, materials, industrials and global small caps in early April.

The key, according to Bernstein, is to stay away from speculative plays.

‘Pretty nutty stuff’
“There’s some pretty nutty stuff going on,” he added. “Certainly in this environment, I think one should be very, very cautious about these high-flyers that have nothing to do with fundamentals at all. It’s all momentum and technicals.”

Bernstein also maintains about a 6% to 8% holding in gold, to help protect his portfolio against unprecedented levels of uncertainty and long-term inflation risks.

“We don’t necessarily worry about that in the next two days. But I think in the next year, two years [or] three years, that’s going to be a big concern people should have,” Bernstein said.


I loved the 3rd grade soccer reference

 

[Detroitgator]

Did you happen to see the short TV interview with Jeremy Grantham today? Says his confidence level is increasingly growing that this is the fourth bubble of his career. But of course did say that as with all bubbles it could go on for quite a while. Did laugh when he said That this particular market had quite the Chutzpah to do what it is doing in the middle of a worldwide shutdown, LOL. thank you Central Banks.

No, I don't watch any financial news, it's just, well, dumb. And if he thinks this is a bubble just now, what a clown. It's a bubble, on top of a bubble, and it's going to go a lot, lot higher before it pops

 

[Detroitgator]

An Institutional Investor Hall of Famer sees more trouble lurking in the market.

Richard Bernstein warns unprecedented Federal Reserve policies may eventually cause serious harm.

He cites near record deficits and aggressive efforts to increase the money supply among the biggest problems.

“I’m surprised that people aren’t more concerned about what huge monetary growth means for the economy in the United States now,” the CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday.

Bernstein is particularly concerned about the vast bond purchases the Fed is making right now.

“They’ve effectively turned the bond market into third grade soccer,” Bernstein said. “There are no winners or losers. Everybody gets a participation medal, and one has to wonder by taking out the risk return consideration from a huge market — what that means for misallocation of capital, where a bubble is going to form and things like that.”

Yet Bernstein, a CNBC contributor who has spent decades on Wall Street, acknowledges extreme monetary and fiscal measures have been crucial to avoid a depression-like scenario and get the economy back on track.

“We all agree we need very thick cushions right now,” said Bernstein.

Even before the coronavirus pandemic started making headlines, he saw fundamental problems emerging in the economy and started to play defense.

Bernstein is still slightly overweight in consumer staples and health care, but he started to increase his exposure to economically sensitive groups including energy, materials, industrials and global small caps in early April.

The key, according to Bernstein, is to stay away from speculative plays.

‘Pretty nutty stuff’
“There’s some pretty nutty stuff going on,” he added. “Certainly in this environment, I think one should be very, very cautious about these high-flyers that have nothing to do with fundamentals at all. It’s all momentum and technicals.”

Bernstein also maintains about a 6% to 8% holding in gold, to help protect his portfolio against unprecedented levels of uncertainty and long-term inflation risks.

“We don’t necessarily worry about that in the next two days. But I think in the next year, two years [or] three years, that’s going to be a big concern people should have,” Bernstein said.


I loved the 3rd grade soccer reference

This is what I mean... it's just, well, dumb. The Fed has been doing almost all of this for two decades (in earnest anyway, longer otherwise), and the "experts" are just now seeing things that "concern" them. ugh!

 

[FireFoley]

This is what I mean... it's just, well, dumb. The Fed has been doing almost all of this for two decades (in earnest anyway, longer otherwise), and the "experts" are just now seeing things that "concern" them. ugh!

True, but I think the thing that has finally gotten the credit market participants, like myself, is the huge size and the fact that they have been able to circumvent what they can legally purchase. The FED can't purchase anything other than Treasuries or gov't sponsored agency securities. But they can lend to anyone and did so by lending to the treasury as the lender of last resort, which they are. But actually going into individual corporates and saying so (maybe they did it on the QT in the past) has awakened the so called experts as to what I have said for 10 years now. They will NEVER get out from this ever. It will lead to stock purchases ala Japan and we are in year 10 of the U.S. of Japan. Japan is 20 years ahead of us. And the last time I checked Japan is in year 30 or their recession. 18 months ago the FED started to run off it balance sheet. That lasted 5 seconds b/c the market puked. Yesterday Chair Powell said that if markets are functioning well (by that he means credit markets) then the FED may lessen or stop their purchases. In 5 minutes the stock market made its intra day low. Then he said the FED could do more if the opposite happened so that was the salve. But I have to fill Chair Powell in on a little secret. The credit markets are functioning fine. There has been a record amount of corporate debt issuance. Boeing, Carnival, Norwegian and other companies were able to raise all the money they wanted or needed WITHOUT any gov't help. 2008 was a completely different scenario. The same playbook for a completely different problem will not yield the same result except for the inability to shrink its balance sheet.

 

[FireFoley]

And lastly @Detroitgator you mention the 10yr, which I watch all rates along the curve and you are 100% correct that it needs to find some firmer ground, but every time it peeks its head out of it's shell it comes right back, as in back to 70 basis points tonite. The FED needs rates to rise to have any chance to get out of this mess in the next 5-10 years, and I mean rise due to genuine economic activity and growth not from the FLATION associated with STAGflation, which I fear is what the rate rise will be about.

 

[Detroitgator]

And lastly @Detroitgator you mention the 10yr, which I watch all rates along the curve and you are 100% correct that it needs to find some firmer ground, but every time it peeks its head out of it's shell it comes right back, as in back to 70 basis points tonite. The FED needs rates to rise to have any chance to get out of this mess in the next 5-10 years, and I mean rise due to genuine economic activity and growth not from the FLATION associated with STAGflation, which I fear is what the rate rise will be about.

You are making the sad, sad, mistake of thinking they have ANY intention of getting out of this in any way other than in a way of THEIR choosing, and it ain't the "traditional"/correct way. Try thinking from their perspective and the possibility that their thinking is, "This is EXACTLY what what we've been working towards for 100 years!" And now apply that thinking to all their buddy CBs, all of which are effectively now owned by our CB.

Too tin foil hat for ya? Yeah, it was for me once upon a time, but when we didn't get the "traditional"/correct type of correction after 2009-10, or any kind of "traditional"/correct type of correction again after about 2015, I wasn't worried about tin foil hat comments anymore, it's just flat out plain to see now, and in the last two months, they have been flat out saying/admitting what all the tin foil hat guys have said for going on 20 years now.

 

[FireFoley]

You are making the sad, sad, mistake of thinking they have ANY intention of getting out of this in any way other than in a way of THEIR choosing, and it ain't the "traditional"/correct way. Try thinking from their perspective and the possibility that their thinking is, "This is EXACTLY what what we've been working towards for 100 years!" And now apply that thinking to all their buddy CBs, all of which are effectively now owned by our CB.

Too tin foil hat for ya? Yeah, it was for me once upon a time, but when we didn't get the "traditional"/correct type of correction after 2009-10, or any kind of "traditional"/correct type of correction again after about 2015, I wasn't worried about tin foil hat comments anymore, it's just flat out plain to see now, and in the last two months, they have been flat out saying/admitting what all the tin foil hat guys have said for going on 20 years now.

No denying anything you said. It is exactly correct. But here is the question I can't answer. I want out before it is too late. How can I know when? I do know that they can't inflate forever without a POP. It has happened everywhere. I remember when it happened in Japan and everyone said it will be okay. 1990 Nikkei 40,000, 30 years later Nikkei 20,000. That is what I am planning on missing out on.

 

[Detroitgator]

No denying anything you said. It is exactly correct. But here is the question I can't answer. I want out before it is too late. How can I know when? I do know that they can't inflate forever without a POP. It has happened everywhere. I remember when it happened in Japan and everyone said it will be okay. 1990 Nikkei 40,000, 30 years later Nikkei 20,000. That is what I am planning on missing out on.

Then, at some point, you better actually own something other than paper... actual real estate, actual precious metals... not the paper kind where you have a "paper claim" (along with thousands of others) to a single ounce, and, I hate to say it, but probably a bit of bitcoin. There is only one "out" to this, and I'm still wrestling with the reality of it, but there is no other way "out" unless they actually let it all collapse when the day you are talking about comes, and that's to go to a new currency, most likely digital, and (and I still can't accept this, but I've seen enough things I couldn't accept come true), possibly a global digital currency.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Then, at some point, you better actually own something other than paper.

I think about this a lot and it makes me glad I was led to having RE as a large portion of my retirement. Yeah I get aggravated at times when the properties need repair or a have a slow pay tenant(right now) but the tax write offs are nice and it'll always be in demand when markets are up(sell)or down(rent).....lump sum or income stream are pretty good options to have.
One can't simply transition the bulk of their holdings from equity to debt like in years past so I guess instead of Bingo at the old folks home seniors will have to take up day trading to eat...

 

[bradgator2]

AAL is getting pummeled again

 

[bradgator2]

My youngest kid bought some PLUG last year. And she texted me this morning to rub it in. Nothing like an 11 year old girl to talk stock smack.

 

[no1g8r]

My youngest kid bought some PLUG last year. And she texted me this morning to rub it in. Nothing like an 11 year old girl to talk stock smack.

next time she has a hot tip, can you share it with us?

nice job by her, and by whom ever got her interested in investing at such a young age.

 

[bradgator2]

next time she has a hot tip, can you share it with us?

nice job by her, and by whom ever got her interested in investing at such a young age.

I have made both my kids save (at least) 20% of the money they receive into a custodial stock account. The youngest (11 year old) loves it and has $2000 in her account. The oldest (13 year old) hates it. So naturally, the youngest has twice as much money in her account. But I have always made them choose which stocks to pick, except for the opening purchase which I selected and was in VTI, which is a total stock index.

The youngest's first stock purchase was a single share of Microsoft. She is flirting with a 200% gain on that one.

 

[bradgator2]

RTX has been getting pummeled. I bought some more this morning.