Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

bradgator2

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Well, like others have said... it’s impossible to know the bottom when you are in it. I dont think you’ll lose much catching it on the upswing.

Having said that, several stocks are at prices that I thought I would never see again. I bought a little Disney and Amex yesterday. They could easily drop more. But my timeline/horizon for these holdings is several decades. Also keeping my eye on Boeing.
 

Thought Criminal

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Well, like others have said... it’s impossible to know the bottom when you are in it. I don't think you’ll lose much catching it on the upswing.

Long term, sure... I'm talking about trading based strictly on charts, not fundamentals. The volatility is very tradeable if it's money you can afford to lose. And that was my question, whether there was anyone else out there who messes around with stuff like RSI, moving average convergence/divergence, stochastics, etc. It's dangerous to do that in a news-driven market, but the return is significant (10x-20x if you guess right on a 2000 point move).
 

BMF

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This is a pretty amazing drop. I bought a little last week, only to see it go down even more. I bought a little on Monday when it was tanking again. Hopefully it makes a little comeback after this BS settles down. In one of the other threads I posted about MRO (Marathon Oil). I added a few hundred shares and plan to sit on it. I'm crushed in that stock, but in no hurry to sell.

I turn 50 this year so I can put $26K in my TSP (IRA). I'm doing an 80-20 asset allocation now...I may bump it to 90-10 just to buy low for a while.
 

bradgator2

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This is a pretty amazing drop. I bought a little last week, only to see it go down even more. I bought a little on Monday when it was tanking again. Hopefully it makes a little comeback after this BS settles down. In one of the other threads I posted about MRO (Marathon Oil). I added a few hundred shares and plan to sit on it. I'm crushed in that stock, but in no hurry to sell.

I turn 50 this year so I can put $26K in my TSP (IRA). I'm doing an 80-20 asset allocation now...I may bump it to 90-10 just to buy low for a while.

These huge oil stocks like XOM are crazy. I have no feel for where those are heading.
 

FireFoley

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Four Huge oil co.'s: XOM, CVX, RDS,BP. Good balance sheets, large dividends. I don;t think they are going out of business that soon, so seems like an okay risk reward.

Boeing was recently 425+. People could not get enough of it. Fast forward and it gets to within a nose hair of double digits today. Is dividend cut next? Eight ball says my sources say possibly.

Electric utilities that I follow were all overpriced on every metric and I thought I would never get a chance to get any more. Well except for WEC, they all came in 20+%. Still might be a bit expensive on P/E's since they don;t grow much but I will take a 5+% dividend where the business is fairly simple and steady

So many more examples of good dividends at reasonable prices but the possibility of dividend cuts can loom I guess. But I tend to buy often on dips in small chunks and then wait for another dip. One thing is for sure. They don;t ring a bell at the top nor do they ring a bell at the bottom. So it is never wrong to sell some on the way up, nor is it a bad idea to nibble on the down days
 

ChiefGator

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Well I placed some orders today for less than the current price. Disney and JPM. If they are not filled that will be fine. I am concerned that some companies will be reducing their dividends which I depend on to pay my bills. Time to cut back on expenses, or save those thousands that might be coming.
 

BMF

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I bought some more today....I figure I'm going to take small bites every time it has a drastic drop.
 

Gatorraid81

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Looking at some of the air lines and cruise lines stocks, would any be worth getting? What about some of the auto manufacturers or smaller oil companies? Too big of a risk?
 

Detroitgator

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Honestly fellas... anyone looking to "get in" while we are still closing/locking things down, is probably going to lose a lot more before anything bottoms. Keep the powder dry, you'll know when we are at the bottom.

@FireFoley @78

Either of you look at the yield curve as of Friday and compare it to 2007 before the bad started? It's going FLAT at near zero.
 

FireFoley

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@Detroitgator , I watch interest rates every second of every day and pay attention to the yield curve as well. I have no particular opinion as to which is more viable, is it 2yr-10yr spread, 3mo.-10yr. spread, etc., whatever you think is best. All I know is that when the curve inverts, you hear the talking heads saying it is different this time. Well my experiences are that it is never different regardless of reason. I remember in 2006 on, that the curve was inverted as I was getting 1yr. CD's at roughly 6%, which I now was roughly equal to or above a 30yr mortgage, which means it was well above the 10yr. Treasury. Lending institutions were offering such rates b/c they needed all the money they could get b/c they were lending for everyone to buy 10 houses at a time.

Fast forward to now and just as the curve was almost completely flat, out of nowhere the 2-10yr spread went from about 12 basis points to about 65 bp's. Why? Most would think that during this turbulence, people would flock to Treasury's of all durations and to gold. But the opposite happened,. They sold gold and Treasurys b/c all they wanted to do was raise cash. Also the credit markets were basically shut and that is why the Fed has had to step in beyond the Repo market and once again become the buyer of last resort. If you watch Muni's, corporates or preferred stocks, they were selling AAA muni's, and corporates fast and some preferred stocks that have $25/par value traded a low as $15/share. They steadied on Thursday and Friday as the Fed has stepped in and many of those preferred stocks have gotten back to $20ish/ per share. Still trading at a significant discount and many with yield well above 6%. If you think things are safe, one might think about preferred stocks as an income play?

Where the yield curve goes from here is a good question. the 3 month T-Bill is zero basically and the 10 yr Treasury is about 85-90 basis points. If you are of the belief that the 10 yr. is going to zero then the curve will be flat to inverted again. But at this point I am personally am watching the credit markets for signs of stabilization. Personally I would like to see rates increase slowly and for the right reasons. Not b/c the markets are frozen or there are no bids, but b/c things are getting better. but I have no opinion as to when of if that is going to happen
 

EyeDocGator

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I bought a gold miner fund. They're really cheap now and with the amount of money that's going to be printed, I think it's a good speculation.
 

78

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I look at the high yield spread probably more than anything. It shows no sign of abating.

2881d7360ca50de87abdb780b745fa1a.jpg
 

Detroitgator

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@Detroitgator , I watch interest rates every second of every day and pay attention to the yield curve as well. I have no particular opinion as to which is more viable, is it 2yr-10yr spread, 3mo.-10yr. spread, etc., whatever you think is best. All I know is that when the curve inverts, you hear the talking heads saying it is different this time. Well my experiences are that it is never different regardless of reason. I remember in 2006 on, that the curve was inverted as I was getting 1yr. CD's at roughly 6%, which I now was roughly equal to or above a 30yr mortgage, which means it was well above the 10yr. Treasury. Lending institutions were offering such rates b/c they needed all the money they could get b/c they were lending for everyone to buy 10 houses at a time.

Fast forward to now and just as the curve was almost completely flat, out of nowhere the 2-10yr spread went from about 12 basis points to about 65 bp's. Why? Most would think that during this turbulence, people would flock to Treasury's of all durations and to gold. But the opposite happened,. They sold gold and Treasurys b/c all they wanted to do was raise cash. Also the credit markets were basically shut and that is why the Fed has had to step in beyond the Repo market and once again become the buyer of last resort. If you watch Muni's, corporates or preferred stocks, they were selling AAA muni's, and corporates fast and some preferred stocks that have $25/par value traded a low as $15/share. They steadied on Thursday and Friday as the Fed has stepped in and many of those preferred stocks have gotten back to $20ish/ per share. Still trading at a significant discount and many with yield well above 6%. If you think things are safe, one might think about preferred stocks as an income play?

Where the yield curve goes from here is a good question. the 3 month T-Bill is zero basically and the 10 yr Treasury is about 85-90 basis points. If you are of the belief that the 10 yr. is going to zero then the curve will be flat to inverted again. But at this point I am personally am watching the credit markets for signs of stabilization. Personally I would like to see rates increase slowly and for the right reasons. Not b/c the markets are frozen or there are no bids, but b/c things are getting better. but I have no opinion as to when of if that is going to happen
To you and @78 ...

Sorry I wasn't totally clear. I'm looking at this...

Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates

It shows what you are saying in your last paragraph about the 3 mo and the 10 yr.

What I am really looking at is the "triangle" forming in the bottom left corner of the table where you draw a rough line from the March 1st 1 month down and over to the March 20th 7 and even 10 yr. I'm not worried about "flat" or even "inverted"... i'm looking at the steady march to "zero" which is basically everything to the left of the "line" I said to draw, and it's steadily moving to the right. At the beginning of the year, we had a fairly "normal" curve, just at low rates.
 

FireFoley

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@Detroitgator Sorry I misunderstood you a bit. When someone says "yield curve" most of us who spent our life in the industry take that to mean the difference between two different durations. When they mention that on the blower they usually mean the difference between the 3mo. and 10yr or the 2yr-10yr. Your chart is of all Treasury durations and the closing yield of those durations each day. I see what you are saying and the trend is that we are headed lower in yield, and if you follow guys like Sri Kumar, Gary Shilling or Scott Minerd, etc. they think the 10 yr. is going to zero. My opinion only is that the Fed is smart enough to know that would not be good and they will do what they can for that not to happen. But the market will always dictate. I will say this though. The 10 yr Treasury (that is the one that is most often cited) has not made a new intraday low in about 10 days since the day it touched 31 basis points. And we have had some pretty large down days in the stock market lately. Now I think that might be partly due to the massive selling as well as dealers pulling bids and rates going even farther than normal. But I think it is a positive (however slightly) that we have not reached that panic low. But time might show that we will drift lower and lower if this drags on and the Fed becomes the first, last and only buyer of Gov. paper, LOL and the Gov. becomes owners of US Equities (Which I hope and pray does NOT happen).

Sorry about my misunderstanding. As the Treasurys show now though, we have a positive sloping yield curve, but my guess is that if the longer durations head towards zero, then the shorter maturities will be negative long before say the 10 yr. gets to zero. Regardless of the shape of the yield curve it appears that investing in US Gov. Debt will get you very little interest, but at least a guarantee of principle protection, LOL
 

Detroitgator

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@Detroitgator Sorry I misunderstood you a bit. When someone says "yield curve" most of us who spent our life in the industry take that to mean the difference between two different durations. When they mention that on the blower they usually mean the difference between the 3mo. and 10yr or the 2yr-10yr. Your chart is of all Treasury durations and the closing yield of those durations each day. I see what you are saying and the trend is that we are headed lower in yield, and if you follow guys like Sri Kumar, Gary Shilling or Scott Minerd, etc. they think the 10 yr. is going to zero. My opinion only is that the Fed is smart enough to know that would not be good and they will do what they can for that not to happen. But the market will always dictate. I will say this though. The 10 yr Treasury (that is the one that is most often cited) has not made a new intraday low in about 10 days since the day it touched 31 basis points. And we have had some pretty large down days in the stock market lately. Now I think that might be partly due to the massive selling as well as dealers pulling bids and rates going even farther than normal. But I think it is a positive (however slightly) that we have not reached that panic low. But time might show that we will drift lower and lower if this drags on and the Fed becomes the first, last and only buyer of Gov. paper, LOL and the Gov. becomes owners of US Equities (Which I hope and pray does NOT happen).

Sorry about my misunderstanding. As the Treasurys show now though, we have a positive sloping yield curve, but my guess is that if the longer durations head towards zero, then the shorter maturities will be negative long before say the 10 yr. gets to zero. Regardless of the shape of the yield curve it appears that investing in US Gov. Debt will get you very little interest, but at least a guarantee of principle protection, LOL
No, it was my fault, I was sloppy with words!

As for everything you wrote, I agree and all makes sense, but what I put in bold, (fed will do what they have to do to prop 10 yr, market will always dictate, LOL twice, and some praying), reads to me as, "is this really happening?!?!?! could this really happen?!?!?!!?" ;)

I just know this, I'm staying powder dry because I think we get a good bounce soon(ish) that is going to fool a LOT of people before many more legs down over the coming months. In simple terms, i think we might be near the bottom of a wave 3, which obviously means one more bigger wave down before the next series. That said, we could be in the "c" of a smaller a-b-c and then start anew! ;)

Here's my chart on the S&P...
20200322_171532.jpg
 
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FireFoley

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No, it was my fault, I was sloppy with words!

As for everything you wrote, I agree and all makes sense, but what I put in bold, (fed will do what they have to do to prop 10 yr, market will always dictate, LOL twice, and some praying), reads to me as, "is this really happening?!?!?! could this really happen?!?!?!!?" ;)

I just know this, I'm staying powder dry because I think we get a good bounce soon(ish) that is going to fool a LOT of people before many more legs down over the coming months. In simple terms, i think we might be near the bottom of a wave 3, which obviously means one more bigger wave down before the next series.

Here's my chart on the S&P...
20456


Can't disagree and I will not argue with any Elliott Waver, if you subscribe to that theory. I also have a lot of dry powder but I am not going to say that I have not been nibbling. I have. Just can't help myself b/c they never ring bells at tops or bottoms. But my purchases are in no way of the opinion that we are going to go back and make new highs. My purchases are my own personal feelings of good value in certain securities and not related to the overall market per se.

What I put in bold is often times referred to in the markets world as "DEAD CAT BOUNCE"
 

Detroitgator

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Can't disagree and I will not argue with any Elliott Waver, if you subscribe to that theory. I also have a lot of dry powder but I am not going to say that I have not been nibbling. I have. Just can't help myself b/c they never ring bells at tops or bottoms. But my purchases are in no way of the opinion that we are going to go back and make new highs. My purchases are my own personal feelings of good value in certain securities and not related to the overall market per se.

What I put in bold is often times referred to in the markets world as "DEAD CAT BOUNCE"
I'm with ya 100%. And I'm not a pure Elliott Waver, I look at pretty much everything and decide.

As for what I put in bold, I'm a "Livermorer" as much as an "elliott waver" ;)
 

FireFoley

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I'm with ya 100%. And I'm not a pure Elliott Waver, I look at pretty much everything and decide.

As for what I put in bold, I'm a "Livermorer" as much as an "elliott waver" ;)

Ah I can't say anyone here might know that name. Shall we "Reminisce" you "Stock Operator"? :fistbump:
 

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