Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

[BMF]

We're in the 2 slowest month's(Aug.-Sept.) of the calendar year for about 80% of total businesses and NY, Ill. and Cal. remain 3/4 of the way shutdown. Anyone expecting initial claims are going to drop before the election(Cal., NY, and Ill. will all mysteriously reopen around the 4th of Nov.) has to be hitting the pipe....The market will be on rinse and repeat cycles until then...

Add New Jersey to that list as well. And note what party each state's Governor is affiliated with. It's unreal.

 

[Detroitgator]

Well, that's twice now this week where we closed below support and outside the upward regression channel.

 

[Detroitgator]

Good luck with that. That last hour was a poor close for what looked like a strong day, but I am not sure how much of that matters anymore from a day trading angle. Look at yesterday. Closed on or near the lows, have a big up opening, which would have been a good shorting opportunity if the market was in a weak trend, but you would have gotten skull fkked. The only thing that seems consistent is that the money center banks suck dogs balls, LOL

Yeah, I got very lucky this morning... I couldn't fight my urge to put a position on yesterday, based on no real good reason, just idiotic gut that it might break up (when ALL my indicators were still in the "no direction confirmation" mode... rookie move! But I got lucky, we got that bounce this morning (thanks Christine!) above my basis, then my stop loss kicked in on all 4 positions in a 2 minute time frame at 10:59/11:00 EDT and I lost well under 1%... just lucky (and at least I set my stops!).

It's looking more and more like my second scenario in the Monday update, that we've topped for now. Two closes below the support box and outside the regression channel (two different things). I'm just sittin tight.

 

[FireFoley]

Yeah, I got very lucky this morning... I couldn't fight my urge to put a position on yesterday, based on no real good reason, just idiotic gut that it might break up (when ALL my indicators were still in the "no direction confirmation" mode... rookie move! But I got lucky, we got that bounce this morning (thanks Christine!) above my basis, then my stop loss kicked in on all 4 positions in a 2 minute time frame at 10:59/11:00 EDT and I lost well under 1%... just lucky (and at least I set my stops!).

It's looking more and more like my second scenario in the Monday update, that we've topped for now. Two closes below the support box and outside the regression channel (two different things). I'm just sittin tight.

There can't be an argument that the last 2 days have been very poor closes for the overall market. Even yesterday closed well off the highs and today we closed near the lows. A few more days like this and one would have to think that the trend has shifted. It is almost beginning to look like yesterday was a 'dead cat bounce" but we all use that term differently. It is at the point where, as you have said over and over, nothing matters except the central bank. We will know it is over when they keep sending "stimulate me" money out and the central bank keeps pumping zillions of dollars, yet the market stops going up. Until then, you have to err on the side of caution (the long side) take small losses like you did when it does not work out, and if it continues to work we will be rewarded on the upside.

I raised some decent amount of cash today in a couple of individual stocks that have been performing well (old school names that no one cares about LOL) and am looking to redeploy that cash into income producers that I like and are coming in a bit (2 ute's, 2 pharmas and 2 telecoms.)

 

[Concrete Helmet]

F vck this until the election is over....

 

[Detroitgator]

There can't be an argument that the last 2 days have been very poor closes for the overall market. Even yesterday closed well off the highs and today we closed near the lows. A few more days like this and one would have to think that the trend has shifted. It is almost beginning to look like yesterday was a 'dead cat bounce" but we all use that term differently. It is at the point where, as you have said over and over, nothing matters except the central bank. We will know it is over when they keep sending "stimulate me" money out and the central bank keeps pumping zillions of dollars, yet the market stops going up. Until then, you have to err on the side of caution (the long side) take small losses like you did when it does not work out, and if it continues to work we will be rewarded on the upside.

I raised some decent amount of cash today in a couple of individual stocks that have been performing well (old school names that no one cares about LOL) and am looking to redeploy that cash into income producers that I like and are coming in a bit (2 ute's, 2 pharmas and 2 telecoms.)

Actually, it was the Tuesday close and the close today that are the "problem." Both Tuesday and today were below the bottom of my "support box" and outside the upward trend regression channel. Yesterday (Wednesday) was actually slightly back inside the box and channel.

Listen, I still think we get to 3612+, the question is does that happen now, or after the Wave 2 major correction?

My heart (and trade yesterday) WANTS it to happen now.

My head/analysis says we have closed below major support AND broken outside the upward trend channel two out of the last three days which give stronger likelihood to a breakdown before we run up again. In my original updates, I said that we would likely get that Wave 2 down before the election, then start running up again going into the election. The analysis still says all of that right now.

Either way, we should get fairly definitive confirmation of which way we are going to break within the next few trading days. We've got dollar up strong, 10 yr meh, oil can't catch a bid, Dow Trans moving sideways to down (but in trend channel)... they're going to have to trot out a lot of Fed/CB members spouting "infinite free money" for this to catch a bid... but we've seen it lots of times over the last 10 (er, 20) years...

 

[bradgator2]

Much of the time.... waiting is the hardest part.

 

[Detroitgator]

Much of the time.... waiting is the hardest part.

Yup. I trade with my 2 sons... wanna know the really frustrating part? Retard Son #1 (our "trial" baby to get the other two "right") is the one telling me to be patient!

 

[bradgator2]

Yup. I trade with my 2 sons... wanna know the really frustrating part? Retard Son #1 (our "trial" baby to get the other two "right") is the one telling me to be patient!

I'm having a real hard problem with it. I'm sitting on some cash.... and it's killing me.

 

[Detroitgator]

I'm having a real hard problem with it. I'm sitting on some cash.... and it's killing me.

Same same. gotta sit out in a sideways market.

 

[bradgator2]

Same same. gotta sit out in a sideways market.

Over the last few days I have nibbled at some long holds that I think are still at a deep discount. Pretty much even. Just cant get rattled.

What I do like is these "robinhood" investors are losing their ass. Good.

 

[FireFoley]

Over the last few days I have nibbled at some long holds that I think are still at a deep discount. Pretty much even. Just cant get rattled.

What I do like is these "robinhood" investors are losing their ass. Good.

No argument about the "milennal Robinhood azzhats" who think markets only go up. Here is the kicker about that. These azzhats can open an account and trade freaking options practically no questions asked. I as a seasoned investor and halfway (use term loosely) knowledgeable, have to jump thru hoops just to write covered calls at a legitimate brokerage firm or bank. A Covered Call!. These Robinhood azzhats probably think a strangle or a straddle is some kind of manuever in a video game.

 

[Gator By Marriage]

Yup. I trade with my 2 sons... wanna know the really frustrating part? Retard Son #1 (our "trial" baby to get the other two "right") is the one telling me to be patient!

Are you familiar with the “Powdered Butt Syndrome?”
It’s a theory that posits it is exceptionally difficult to take advice of any kind from someone on whose butt you used to put baby powder.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

I'll tell you what I'm familiar with and that is whenever the "bad trump" story breaks on the most used browsers the market slips....think about it last week was Trump bad mouthing dead vets and this week the Woodward. Yes I've even timed the stories within an hour of breaking to major(more than 300 points) surges and falls.

You're wasting your time until the day before the election....then buy like a MFer all the eye candy you want cuz it'll go up 20-40% overnight.

 

[BMF]

I WAS sitting on some cash (still am, somewhat)...but everytime there's a dip and one of my favorite stocks dips, I've been adding. I'm still about 25% in cash.

 

[Detroitgator]

Update:

• As long as SP500 holds above the Friday low of 3307, I'm bullish.
• Until we get my "bearish divergence" indicator on RSI, I'm bullish.
• Both "Bull-Bear" and "Put-Call" ratios (contrarian indicators) indicate bullishness.

Likely scenarios:

1. Less likely: We rise to 3480-3520, then pull back deeper.
2. More likely: We rise to 3480-3520, small pullback to 3400ish, the strong up move to 3612-3663 (3612 would be hitting the 3rd of 3 probable targets using Rule of 7's. If this scenario happens, I think that'll be the "top" as all the dumb money will have piled in and be giddy... which is what usually happens before bad things happen.

 

[FireFoley]

Update:

• As long as SP500 holds above the Friday low of 3307, I'm bullish.
• Until we get my "bearish divergence" indicator on RSI, I'm bullish.
• Both "Bull-Bear" and "Put-Call" ratios (contrarian indicators) indicate bullishness.

Likely scenarios:

1. Less likely: We rise to 3480-3520, then pull back deeper.
2. More likely: We rise to 3480-3520, small pullback to 3400ish, the strong up move to 3612-3663 (3612 would be hitting the 3rd of 3 probable targets using Rule of 7's. If this scenario happens, I think that'll be the "top" as all the dumb money will have piled in and be giddy... which is what usually happens before bad things happen.

I really have no feeling anymore and think that the market is just swinging on whatever little news it gets on almost anything, good, bad or indifferent. I am kind of like what @BMF said the other day, I have the things I like and if they come to my prices I partake and the stuff I want to sell I do. Other than that I am just watching.

The one thing I come back on up days like this is the yield curve. yes I know is it being manipulated, but I spent 20+ years in the credit markets and if things are happening or going to happen economically the credit market will sniff it out. Well rates are not budging upward. The market does not believe any of these so called good econ. numbers and is 100% sold on more "Stimulate Me" money. I am in that camp too, but the timeline is debatable.

 

[Detroitgator]

I really have no feeling anymore and think that the market is just swinging on whatever little news it gets on almost anything, good, bad or indifferent. I am kind of like what @BMF said the other day, I have the things I like and if they come to my prices I partake and the stuff I want to sell I do. Other than that I am just watching.

The one thing I come back on up days like this is the yield curve. yes I know is it being manipulated, but I spent 20+ years in the credit markets and if things are happening or going to happen economically the credit market will sniff it out. Well rates are not budging upward. The market does not believe any of these so called good econ. numbers and is 100% sold on more "Stimulate Me" money. I am in that camp too, but the timeline is debatable.

I'm with you 1000%, I don't like the look of any of this.

As for the credit market, I agree, that the day will come where it will go very, very, very wrong. But I've stopped trying to guess that for years (a decade even) and that's why I just play what's in front of me with tight stops. It's not just "manipulation," they are "printing money" to buy and sell treasuries directly to keep it in that range to keep the markets going. Yes, that's just "manipulation," but they are doing it on a truly massive scale by the minute and openly admitting it now in direct reaction to any moves in the "true market" that are counter to it staying in that range.

I don't like any of this! ;)

 

[Concrete Helmet]

You guys complicate this too much.....
China flu vaccine back on.....up
Hopes for free China flu funds....holding steady(up if signed/down if not)
Bad Trump story(even if not believable).....down

 

[Detroitgator]

You guys complicate this too much.....
China flu vaccine back on.....up
Hopes for free China flu funds....holding steady(up if signed/down if not)
Bad Trump story(even if not believable).....down

Yes, I said that months ago, but the weekly back and forth between "china trade deal" and "vaccine" has worn off