Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

[FireFoley]

You guys complicate this too much.....
China flu vaccine back on.....up
Hopes for free China flu funds....holding steady(up if signed/down if not)
Bad Trump story(even if not believable).....down

On the vaccine front only, there will be a vaccine Crete, no doubt about it. But let's think the vaccine thru. It takes YEARS to develop a decent vaccine, and since so many companies are working on this single one, perhaps it will be sooner. So let's assume that? Are you going to be first in line to be injected with some Bat Shyt Flu? Not me!. They will be lucky to get 30-40% to try it. and with that, how effective will it be? We have had a Flu vaccine for a zillion years and each year it is between 20-70% effective and we still have 50-60K Flu deaths a year. Vaccine does not equal all is clear with this virus. the common cold is a corona virus and yet we get colds constantly.

Beyond that, when the vaccine is given the Okay for immediate use, how does that cause the Fed's Balance sheet to shrink? How do we pay back 30 trillion in debt if we could not pay back 20 Trillion before the Kung Flu?

 

[Concrete Helmet]

On the vaccine front only, there will be a vaccine Crete, no doubt about it. But let's think the vaccine thru. It takes YEARS to develop a decent vaccine, and since so many companies are working on this single one, perhaps it will be sooner. So let's assume that? Are you going to be first in line to be injected with some Bat Shyt Flu? Not me!. They will be lucky to get 30-40% to try it. and with that, how effective will it be? We have had a Flu vaccine for a zillion years and each year it is between 20-70% effective and we still have 50-60K Flu deaths a year. Vaccine does not equal all is clear with this virus. the common cold is a corona virus and yet we get colds constantly.

Beyond that, when the vaccine is given the Okay for immediate use, how does that cause the Fed's Balance sheet to shrink? How do we pay back 30 trillion in debt if we could not pay back 20 Trillion before the Kung Flu?

You whiffed on my point completely....it has nothing to do with the vaccine which in my opinion won't/shouldn't be ready for several years....btw I'm an anti vacciner myself....
It has nothing to do with how much further in debt we go with China freebie funds...
And it has nothing to do with Woodward, wildfires or how much corn was in Trumps morning deuce....
It does have to do with the masses perception of those things and the constant bombardment of them by the MSM and Trump himself at least until after the election.

 

[no1g8r]

You whiffed on my point completely....it has nothing to do with the vaccine which in my opinion won't/shouldn't be ready for several years....btw I'm an anti vacciner myself....
It has nothing to do with how much further in debt we go with China freebie funds...
And it has nothing to do with Woodward, wildfires or how much corn was in Trumps morning deuce....
It does have to do with the masses perception of those things and the constant bombardment of them by the MSM and Trump himself at least until after the election.

in general, the Movements in the markets have more to do with the perception by traders large and small than about the events and news itself. The exception is the feds outright purchase of equities and other instruments, which is often contrary to the direction traders would be taking things based on news and events.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

in general, the Movements in the markets have more to do with the perception by traders large and small

You must be old like me....in case you haven't heard nowadays EVERYONE is a trader.....that's the core of the problem.

 

[BMF]

I'm going 80% fixed in my TSP and sitting this out until after the elections. I'm nervous AF.

I want to do the same in my Roth and brokerage, but I'm going to hold off for a bit. I sold some (a portion) of my S&P index funds a few weeks ago, but still have some sitting w/ a big profit and a few other mutual funds.

I have a precious metals fund that I've owned for over 10 years, it was down HUGE until about a year ago and it's made a nice run. I'm up 60%. I'm thinking about dumping the whole thing. But...when I originally bought it, it was around $38/share, it's now around $24. So that initial investment (10 or so years ago) still hasn't come close to catching up. When it nose dived, I just kept adding lower cost shares over the years. WTF was going on w/ precious metals 10 years ago that this fund was 50+% higher?

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Perhaps one of you board Guru's can explain to me how every f vckin stock AND bond fund I own right now is in the f vckin red at the same f vckin time....

 

[Detroitgator]

Perhaps one of you board Guru's can explain to me how every f vckin stock AND bond fund I own right now is in the f vckin red at the same f vckin time....

Because we broke ALL the support levels I have posted... ;)

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Because we broke ALL the support levels

Just tell me at what support level I'm not gonna be a broke d!ck retired old man....cuz when we get there I might just pull out completely and buy another rental house over priced or not....at least I know I'll be getting a rental return.

 

[FireFoley]

Perhaps one of you board Guru's can explain to me how every f vckin stock AND bond fund I own right now is in the f vckin red at the same f vckin time....

Without knowing "exactly" the make up of the bond funds you hold, I am going to generalize. Rates have generally gone up this week, if only slightly, they have stopped going down. In the bond world, rates up= price of bond goes down.. Bond Funds are priced on the price of the individual bonds in the fund, not on the rate

 

[Detroitgator]

Update:

• I had three conditions for evidence of a "top":
  • Overbought conditions (we had that).
  • Break down outside of upward trend regression channel (has now happened multiple times in the last week without getting anywhere near back into the channel). We also closed, again on Friday, below major support levels.
  • What I call "negative divergence." We haven't had this yet, and I don't think we will because this top was a "blow off" top. Conversely, at the bottom of the March low, I did not get a "positive divergence" signaling the beginning of the up move, and that happens when you have full capitulation (which we did).
• So, I now think we definitely topped (for now) when we hit 3580 and completed the up Wave 5 (that completed the 5 waves of the larger Wave 1) and we are now in the Wave 2 pullback/correction.
• Trying to profit on this Wave 2 down is probably VERY dumb, because historically, they are VERY messy with lots of sharp "ups and downs" while slowly moving lower to its bottom.
• What we are really waiting for is that bottom, because that will be a HUGE "buy long" opportunity and the start of a long, large Wave 3 up to new all time highs of 3600+ (potentially much higher, as much as up to 5000 levels).
• So, what do I expect now:
  • Using this first leg down from the highs to calculate the 3 probable bearish targets for the Rule of 7's, we get: Target 1 = 3232 (June highs), Target 2 = 3145, Target 3 = 3000. These are probable targets, it does not mean we will hit all three. For the 3 bullish targets before, we hit Targets 1 and 2, and came just short of Target 3. We could also go much lower than 3000.
  • The Target 3 of 3000 also nearly coincides with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (it's 3055). If we are on this path, we likely keep dropping to around the 3232 level, get a bounce up, then fall again toward 3000. Then start the big Wave 3 up.
  • There is still a "risk" (I say "risk" because I'm personally hoping for a much bigger pullback, like at least 3000) of a "shallow retracement" where we only pull back to around the 3232 (June high and Daily100/Weekly 21 EMA) level, find a bottom, then start the Wave 3 up. I think this is the lower probability scenario given all the crap going on.
  • Please note, the farther we fall, the stronger the Wave 3 up will be. So I'm hoping for as big a pullback as possible.
  • New resistance in 3429. As long as we stay below that, bears are in charge.
  • If we close solidly above 3429 for some reason, will reassess. But I would only see a rise to this level as a bounce before breaking down again, not as another big leg up.
  • Another signal that we've probably topped: on a weekly chart of the SP500, the MACD is looking like it's setting up for a "death cross" soon.
  • A note on the Dow Transports (a leading indicator for markets) looking at its WEEKLY chart:
    • It seems that any time the Dow Transports break their previous intraday all time high (ATH) on the weekly chart, it signals a "false breakout" upward, and has resulted in crashing.
    • It just broke it's ATH (from back in 2018) on the Weekly chart.
    • The last two times it did this (in 2018 and 2012), it then failed and crashed HARD (total reversal in multi-month price action).
    • It also happened after hitting ATH's in 1999 (after breaking ATH of 1998) and 2011 (after breaking ATH of 2008.
    • Finally, if you are a "candlestick" reader, the recent piercing of the ATH was a "shooting star/doji" which is a signal of weakness.
    • 11000 is support for the Dow Transports. If we get a WEEKLY close below 11000, major bearish.
  • Dollar still not showing any sign of life.

So, to recap, I think we've topped and have started the Wave 2 down. 3429 is resistance. This could go through October. Sitting on cash is likely the smartest thing to do right now.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Yeah so from the looks of futures right now I should have sold everything last Friday at close....News cycle won't help...I've never seen anything in my adult life like this, SCOTUS, China flu, election and a blatantly lying ass media...….I hope people hang for this and I would certainly offer my help.

 

[BMF]

Taking a BEATING today!!

 

[Detroitgator]

NKLA is up 49+% today! Wow. I think it goes up more once they get near production. I'm in it at around $39.50/share, it's at $53+ now (127 total shares).

Did you get out? You're almost 30% under basis now.

 

[BMF]

Did you get out? You're almost 30% under basis now.

I took some profit, but I actually bought some more today. I have confidence in this company. I've been following this thing for a few years now. I'm glad the CEO resigned. He was a problem.

 

[FireFoley]

I took some profit, but I actually bought some more today. I have confidence in this company. I've been following this thing for a few years now. I'm glad the CEO resigned. He was a problem.

Regarding NKLA, I was wondering about that. I have no horse in this race, but Carson Block of Muddy Waters is about to be on TV. Muddy Waters is a renowned short seller and has been quite good at uncovering frauds in the past. Now I do not know if Muddy Waters has any position in NKLA or has any opinion on the Hindenburg claims about NKLA, but FWIW,

As an aside @BMF, you are the BA king. Any feelings down here on BA around 155ish?

Update: the interview regarding NKLA went off the rails into an argument between Block and the host. Before tho, Block said he had no position in NKLA, felt the research on the company was legit, and as you said, the CEO was an azzhat and probably was the problem b/c his response to the report sucked and it was probably best that he is gone.

 

[BMF]

Regarding NKLA, I was wondering about that. I have no horse in this race, but Carson Block of Muddy Waters is about to be on TV. Muddy Waters is a renowned short seller and has been quite good at uncovering frauds in the past. Now I do not know if Muddy Waters has any position in NKLA or has any opinion on the Hindenburg claims about NKLA, but FWIW,

As an aside @BMF, you are the BA king. Any feelings down here on BA around 155ish?

Update: the interview regarding NKLA went off the rails into an argument between Block and the host. Before tho, Block said he had no position in NKLA, felt the research on the company was legit, and as you said, the CEO was an azzhat and probably was the problem b/c his response to the report sucked and it was probably best that he is gone.

I've been adding a few shares here and there w/ BA under 160. It's a solid company. If the stock slides due to a recession, I'll just hold on. It'll come back (it may take a few years, but it's only a few shares. I'm pretty patient on "good" companies that I have that have slid). I have a ton of Ford stock, embarrassingly. I'm down probably 30%. It pays a small dividend, so I'm just holding onto that one. If I could write off more than $3k/year I'd probably get rid of some of it, but since I can't I'm long.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Took my f vckin ball and went home today....f vck everyone at the top of tech. IMO they should be brought up on charges for the BS they're playing right now. I guarantee those MFer's bough a sh!t load of their own stock later in the day to bring the price back up. This isn't all banks playing games in the market, sure some of it but big tech is basically the mafia of Wall Street and needs to be put in their place.

 

[FireFoley]

I've been adding a few shares here and there w/ BA under 160. It's a solid company. If the stock slides due to a recession, I'll just hold on. It'll come back (it may take a few years, but it's only a few shares. I'm pretty patient on "good" companies that I have that have slid). I have a ton of Ford stock, embarrassingly. I'm down probably 30%. It pays a small dividend, so I'm just holding onto that one. If I could write off more than $3k/year I'd probably get rid of some of it, but since I can't I'm long.

Me thinking of stepping into BA myself. I think 150 ish under current conditions is decent risk/reward.

On the NKLA front, I am posting an exit of the CEO article. Guess they did not have to twist his arm too hard to get him to leave. Forfeit 166 MIL to keep 3.1 BIL, seems fairly easy to me.

• The company announced Milton’s resignation early Monday morning.
• Milton’s departure sent shares of the company plummeting in premarket trading before opening at $24.97 – their lowest opening price since the company went public on June 4.
• The deal requires Milton to give up roughly 4.9 million in restricted shares valued at $166 million as of Friday’s closing price while allowing him to walk away with more than 91.6 million shares that were worth more than $3.1 billion.
  

Nikola founder Trevor Milton agreed to forfeit up to roughly $166 million of equity as well as a two-year, $20 million consulting contract as part of his abrupt departure from the company he started. However, the EV executive gets to walk away with more than $3.1 billion in stock as part of a separation agreement reached over the weekend.

Milton, who’s come under scrutiny in recent days, agreed to give up his position and duties as executive chairman of the board as well as all other board seats on the company’s subsidiaries, according to the agreement dated Sunday. The deal strips the 39-year-old entrepreneur of any say in the company’s operations and blocks him from attempting to influence any decisions for at least three years, according to a company filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.

Milton agreed to advise the company as an unpaid consultant on an ad hoc basis through the end of the year, but he cannot comment about the company on social media, blogs or other online platforms without legal approval from Nikola, according to the deal.

The value of his exit package will vary over time as the start-up’s shares have swung wildly since it went public on June 4. The agreement requires Milton to give up roughly 4.9 million in restricted, performance-based shares valued at $166 million as of Friday’s closing price of $34.19 a share while allowing him to walk away with more than 91.6 million shares that appear to be free of any restrictions and were worth over $3.1 billion.

Nikola declined to comment on Milton’s exit package.

 

[Bushmaster]

Vaccine does not equal all is clear with this virus. the common cold is a corona virus and yet we get colds constantly.
.......

I agree and disagree here. Once a vaccine is announced, it will be all clear in people's minds and things will soon return to normal. People will choose to either get vaccinated or not, and people will still get the Rona, but the mindset will be "we got a vaccine, no biggie." I think that will be the reaction.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Well Guru's do we have support? It's lunch time, I'm bored and my settlement account is daring me to get back in the game....there's no way Energy can go any lower, right? I just can't be wrong about that 5 times in a row, right?