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Discussion in 'Business, Investing & Finance' started by ThreatMatrix, Feb 29, 2020.
and it begins again....uptick in 10y just killed the morning trade...
I am not saying anything factual here, but IMO when the 10yr. Treasury hits 1.60ish, that seems to be when the machines kick in. But it is not just the 10 yr, it is also the 5yr and 7yr, aka the belly of the curve. Those durations are actually higher today while the short end does not move and the long end was down a bit. At some point the market will move away from this focus but no one knows when. What I think will be most troubling is if/when the market calls the FEDS bluff and starts driving the shortest durations higher.
Nice returns there! Noticed that the ARK funds have tanked the last two weeks? (pretty much everything has tanked, but I'm surprised these have dived). The market's made a nice post-noon run. I have no clue what's happening w/ this market!
None of it makes any sense to me right now. Luckily, I got into the ARK funds a long time ago... so I am up so big on those that it's not the end of the world. But it still stings to see them down 3-4% every damn day, for what seems like weeks on end. On some of my newer positions, I keep adding a little on each down day. Which is getting old. I keep telling myself, "It's going to be amazing to look back in a few years at how low I bought some of these"
I don't know about you, but it sounds to me like @bradgator2 owes you a finders fee. Just sayin'.
I happily pay in beer!
I'm hoping to move back to Florida in the next few months....so I'll see you guys at a tailgate sometime (I hope). I'll bring a big bottle of bourbon!
One tidbit if anyone is thinking about buying an oil play: Sunoco shares are part of a Master Limited Partnership. Therefore, tax information is sheltered and submitted via a K1 form. This is a new one to me.
So the truth finally surfaces as to why I liked you. For the longest time I could not figure it out but now I know, LOL
I've been trying to trade the mornings on up days to make up for what the market has been chiseling off over previous few weeks instead of buying lower positions and holding. Honestly it has been frustrating and nearly fruitless. Not only that I moved stops up so tight on a few of my longer holdings and stopped out ....some of which I bought in April. In other words I made very little on todays nice jump in the Dow but did buy back into some commodities and BC for modest gains.
I stuck to my strategy and bought a little again this morning. Some things were down over 10% and I just shook my head. And then “something” happened at 11:30. Those same companies finished the day up nearly 10%. Overall trading portfolio ended up 1.9% at the close. So the beer will taste better tonight.
The "something" was Bank of America putting out the call that the Fed is going to implement YCC. This is how the Fed signals things.
Is that good or bad?
Just keep doing what you're doing..it's working better than waking up at 5.00am and drinking 2 pots of coffee while looking at futures and scheming to win back from the market what it took from you the day before only to watch it get chiseled away 6 hours later after you've fallen 2 hours behind at work from peeking at your latest disaster all morning...
Thank god those idiots finally got around to un f vcking this thing...until Monday at least.
I love autobiographies!
Bring them Kentucky Tavern, that's all these humps are worth
Banks are in real doodoo from 10yr shorts and precious metals(I guess most major banks also own the bullion banks?) .Could lead to bigger meltdown than 2008 since both are happening at the same time. This video is a little long and is from someone obviously pimping metals but there are dozens of videos out there saying the same for the last 3 days. I guess the overnight rate slipped to -4%. Maybe @FireFoley can give me a little more insight to whether I should be scared or hit the full blown panic button and dump all my savings into bullion when the market opens tonight . I've also seen several sources that are stating BK's both corporate and private are starting to show up but the media has been told to put a muzzle on it. Massive Shorts on 10 Year Treasury Taking Out the Repo Market - YouTube
Good stuff. Of course you should be afraid. Be very afraid, but I would never recommend anything to anyone in regards to going all in or liquidating everything. I understand it, but this is deep into the weeds and beyond my pay grade. But my guess is that the FED will say something like: "We are aware of what is going on in the REPO market and we are watching it. At this time we don;t think it is an issue and it is just a plumbing issue" . Similar to when the Ben Bernanke famously said that the subprime situation was small and not an issue. OOPS. the Fed will just tell you that have more tools and can just expand their balance sheet yada.............. Basically I think what they want you to hear is
Start researching your bank stocks now. When the big boys get hit, the whole sector will drop. But there are plenty of regional banks that only fund thru deposits. It’s nice to have a couple identified for whenever a big bank does something stupid and drives down the sector
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