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Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

Discussion in 'Business, Investing & Finance' started by ThreatMatrix, Feb 29, 2020.

  1. FireFoley

    FireFoley Senior Member
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    As I have said before, I have nothing against Cathie Wood, and I know she is very smart. But just as a lot of traders make decisions strictly on momentum (buy high sell higher, short low, buy back lower), I feel Cathie Wood has become momentum herself. she breathes and people fawn. But not to pile on b/c she has had lots and lots of big winners, but she must be a little sad of selling here SPCE just before a 30% rally. But hey maybe that was the Fund's disciplines.
     
    • FireFoley

      FireFoley Senior Member
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      Been a while, but any thoughts as to after having 2 months of hot inflation numbers (known of course) but almost no response in the treasury market (actually rates are lower), could the credit markets actually be forecasting another bout of deflation in the future??
       
    • Concrete Helmet

      Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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      Look at the lending data....This administration is simultaineously creating massive consumer inflation while in a de inflationary(money movement)cycle...Bonds are trapped and SM is moving sideways because no major influxes of money are coming in since Jan....I'm not even sure what they've done was possible...yet here we are.
       
      • bradgator2

        bradgator2 Rioting
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        Most things seem to be in agonizing sideways motion. Although killing it on oil. Ironic, giving this administration.
         
      • alcoholica

        alcoholica I'm what Willis was talking about
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        Local Commercial money is dirt cheap. Not sure why deposits (not rates) are apparently up and some banks are trying to use that capital because it's throwing ratios off. So we are seeing some rates in the low 3's for standard 5/1 ARMs and sub 4% for 25 yr amortizations. It's getting stupid. I feel like this is going to get just as nasty on the commercial side as back when, but just in a totally different way. Even with low deposit rates, there is still a cost to funds....brick and mortar costs, tellers, branch managers, etc etc. So margins are shrinking. But beyond that, most of these deals are not 5 year fixed periods, banks and CU's are doing 7/1's, 10/1's, even 15 year fixed rates.
         
        • BMF

          BMF Bad Mother....
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          Gold & silver taking a beating the last two days.....thanks Fed!!
           
        • Concrete Helmet

          Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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          There's a golden cross coming up on the Gold chart in the next few days....the dollar won't stay up just like the 10 year started up today and dropped 8 points...long term gold is looking at 4K or more by 2024.
           
        • Concrete Helmet

          Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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          Bought the dip....looks like I've got some more midnight gardening to do....
           
          • FireFoley

            FireFoley Senior Member
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            Depends on what you bought on a dip? if you bought almost any stock that was on your shopping list it was a winner today.?
             
          • FireFoley

            FireFoley Senior Member
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            So the "academic" morons keep saying inflation is not a problem. I would say today's CPI contradicts that.

            Change in price from one year ago
            Top 20 items

            Car and truck rental
            87.7%
            Used cars and trucks
            45.2%
            Gasoline (all types)
            45.1%
            Fuel oil
            44.5%
            Other motor fuels
            32.1%
            Propane, kerosene, and firewood
            17.7%
            Moving, storage, freight expense
            17.3%
            Public transportation
            17.3%
            Motor vehicle insurance
            11.3%
            Jewelry and watches
            11.2%
            Domestic services
            10.6%
            Furniture and bedding
            8.6%
            Sporting goods
            7.5%
            Tobacco and smoking products
            7%
            Footwear
            6.5%
            Limited service meals and snacks
            6.2%
            Appliances
            5.8%
            Food from vending machines and mobile vendors
            5.7%
            Women's and girls' apparel
            5.3%
            New vehicles
             
            • BMF

              BMF Bad Mother....
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              Wife bought me a Tag Heuer watch for our anniversary this year, probably the nicest single thing I own. I have a couple of Seiko watches I've had for 25+ years, so it was a nice surprise. Just for fun I was at the mall getting a new suit a few weeks ago (nice Charles Tyrwhitt suit, btw) and I walked into a high dollar jewelry store with a Rolex sign outside - I asked to see the Rolex's and they had....zero, not a single Rolex in the entire store. They said there's no inventory...and that the prices, when they do get them in, are up over 10%.
               
              • Gator By Marriage

                Gator By Marriage A convert to Gatorism
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                It is my intention to never buy another suit again. I have few from Hickey Freeman and from Hart Shaffner Marx, so Mrs. G will have several options for my funeral.
                 
                • BMF

                  BMF Bad Mother....
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                  Unless I pork up I'll likely never buy another suit. In fact, I just purged my closet of 4 suits before we moved to Gulfport (they were a little dated and a little big on me). I think I have 5 suits now. When I come into the office (at Treasury) I usually just wear slacks, white dress shirt, and a tie. If I have a meeting w/ a supervisor then I wear a suit.
                   
                  • FireFoley

                    FireFoley Senior Member
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                    Now that you are in Florida, formal attire will mean a collared shirt!
                     
                    • Concrete Helmet

                      Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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                      Anyone else feel like throwing their laptop on the ground and stomping the sh!t out it? What a bi polar b!tch this market is....
                       
                      • FireFoley

                        FireFoley Senior Member
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                        There is nothing that says you have to be involved each day. And I can't remember where I heard this recently, but the word "market" implies true price discovery. Right now there is no true market due to the extraordinary manipulation. Perhaps when the manipulation is say below 50%, then maybe you might find better opportunities.
                         
                      • Concrete Helmet

                        Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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                        Today is one of those days I wish I hadn't looked....
                        That's what is so baffling. I've been playing the inflationary side predominantly for the last 6 or 7 months....heavy value, energy, total market and only 10-15% tech/growth....then a month or so back I upped the growth with some bio med and semiconductor stocks thinking the rates falling from 1.60 to around 1.30 would make that stuff fire....those MFer's have wiped out half of the gains I made from the Bank and Energy run up sine January....I guess the dollar creeping up is having more weight than these low rates? :scratchhead:
                         
                      • FireFoley

                        FireFoley Senior Member
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                        I will offer only one thing regarding what has been the no brainer trades: Higher Rates= Industrials, Oils, materials, old economy, etc. goes up. Lower Rates= No earnings tech, high growth tech, no earnings cos. go up as they can borrow for nothing.

                        However as I always believe (opinion only) at some point, Low Rates is totally awful for even the growthiest of growth! (and everything else). Lower rates signal "slowness" thus there will not be enough growth or business for those non-money making companies.
                         
                        • FireFoley

                          FireFoley Senior Member
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                          So just to touch base on my above post, the 10 yr. is trading 1.26ish tonight Days ago drawdown low was about 1.24-1.25. Of course last week making it back to to 1.40ish had all the "experts" on the blower saying this was an intermediate low... well well well we are at 1.26ish tonight. If we continue lower in yield (higher in price) is it possible all stocks will get spooked quickly????
                           
                        • FireFoley

                          FireFoley Senior Member
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                          Edit: Quick update. 10 year Treasury trading 1.21-1.22ish. New recent low yields, stocks down pre market. Maybe we might finally get some type of rationality.
                           

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