- Jun 11, 2014
- 16,754
- 20,381
Founding Member
until there is a consistent and significant shift downward, with some actual fundamentals looking at us, i'm not falling for it. Most or all losses will probably be recouped by the end of the week...sans travel stocks
it's going to go to shyt one way or the other. there is nothing this admin is doing that kicking the can will help, only going to make the kick in the pants that much worse when it happens.Another Fed meeting and another Powell and Co.
I'm no fan of Powell but I think if you read between the lines he basically told us in code that the whole "transitory" inflation thing is a load of BS...remember by their own words they were shooting for 2% inflation and are admitting by what are usually doctored numbers that it is at 6%...the highest in almost 50 years...and yet we still have 9 million job openingsAnother Fed meeting and another Powell and Co.
Market is set to take a small crash this morning.....
Can someone explain what this all means?
Something, something... China... something, something... Evergrande... something, something... due for a correction... something, something... bitcoin fixes this... something, something... buy the fcking dip...
Without going too deep in the weeds. when the FED is doing it's QE and buying Treasurys and MTGE backed securities to the tune of 120 Billion a month, they are in essence putting money into the system, thus the talk of how much liquidity there is in the system and it has to go somewhere. But since the banks, etc. are sitting on way too much money they have to do something with it and it has come to the point where the FED has to basically take the money out of the system nightly in the form of these reverse repos
Correct this if it is wrong:
In theory, for the economy:
In theory, for the equities markets:
- Reverse Repos = slightly less “money” in circulation
- Less money in circulation is slightly deflationary
- Less money in circulation means less money looking for a place to be invested
- Less investment money means slower equities market price growth, or downward pressure on the market prices
The question is, are these reverse repos significant enough to move either one?
10YR is up about 25 basis points over the last 2 weeks. Could this be the beginning? Nasdaq is throwing a fit....In my opinion, right now the answer is no. There is such an excess in the system, which is why these huge often reverse repo's are occurring. If you listen to anyone on the blower, they all say that liquidity is one of the main reasons they remain bullish on stocks. Even when the FED tapers, they will still be adding money monthly. It will take them 6+months just to not be adding excess liquidity. Some (myself included) don;t think they will ever finish tapering. I contend the window was wide open 12 months ago and is beginning to close and fast.
10YR is up about 25 basis points over the last 2 weeks. Could this be the beginning? Nasdaq is throwing a fit....