Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

BMF

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That is the majority thought, perhaps gold more than silver. And gold has been moving up as of late, but remember a few weeks ago when everything was going down, including AAA rated debt and gold? People were asking why? That was b/c everyone was selling everything to raise cash, margin calls or not. Well I am not much of a gold bug, but that was the time to begin accumulating those assets if your view is the hyper inflation theory. Perhaps we will have another opportunity after the sugar high of the Japanese Central Bank (oops sorry, the FED) actions wears off, and we are able to reassess actually what it all means. Supporting risk assets is not quite the same as having the economy back up and running.

Good points. I own a precious metals mutual fund, have had it for years and it's been mediocre. I added some to it over the last month. But I just don't quite understand buying actual gold or silver.
 

Detroitgator

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Well money is free now. The FED is buying everything even going into junk bonds. Hell all of us can now qualify from a direct loan from the FED. I am not sure who was the one talking about hyper inflation in a few years, but that has clearly elevated to the head seat at the table. I have been waiting for years for the textbook to be written regarding all that crap from 10+ years ago. Well the book just got another 20 chapters added to it. I will be long gone before that thing ever gets published.
Have now added "Hedge" Funds to the bailout list... "Hedge"...
 

Detroitgator

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Good points. I own a precious metals mutual fund, have had it for years and it's been mediocre. I added some to it over the last month. But I just don't quite understand buying actual gold or silver.
FWIW... Here is the stock market performance... Priced in ounces of gold. You can substitute gold with just about anything real... Home price, eggs, whatevs...
20200411_165510.jpg
 

BMF

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I have heard this often. I am not against anyone who likes or chooses to invests in funds, but as you know you have to put your order in by a certain time and you get the closing NAV price. Have you ever considered having that money go to the money fund or whatever they call the cash portion of the account and then when it looks like it is going to be a down day, you can place the order prior to the cut off time in the afternoon? I know you can't ever pick bottoms, but it is always nice IMO to get stuff on down days, especially funds which won;t go to ZERO, unlike some of the stocks I have owned in my life.

Interestingly, after being pretty much a dud in my portfolio for years - my precious metals mutual fund has shot up the last three or four trading days, up around 30%.
 

wrpgator

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I took advantage of this event driven correction. I've recovered my balances pre coronaV and then some. I had some cash so bought QQQ, XOM, AAPL, XLE. Last week I added Crown Castle Intl (CCI) a company that makes 5G towers / leases space to cell companies. 5G is rolling out--great upside.
CCI has a great looking chart pattern that was calling out to me to buy. If I can raise more cash before it breaks out I'll buy more.
AAPL was on a roll until a Goldman analyst downgraded it after Thurs close. Still it held its 200MA and recovered some losses in late Fri trading. Good sign of support. I'm keeping my eye on it to add more shares.
 

Detroitgator

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I took advantage of this event driven correction. I've recovered my balances pre coronaV and then some. I had some cash so bought QQQ, XOM, AAPL, XLE. Last week I added Crown Castle Intl (CCI) a company that makes 5G towers / leases space to cell companies. 5G is rolling out--great upside.
CCI has a great looking chart pattern that was calling out to me to buy. If I can raise more cash before it breaks out I'll buy more.
AAPL was on a roll until a Goldman analyst downgraded it after Thurs close. Still it held its 200MA and recovered some losses in late Fri trading. Good sign of support. I'm keeping my eye on it to add more shares.
I got a buy signal on AAPL pre-GS downgrade and am still bullish. I think GS is too and that's why the pushed the downgrade, which only got a -1% fail.
 

Detroitgator

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Update...

Economy: still a zombie.
Markets: still near term bullish.

Again, from S&P charts:
  • Cosed above 50 day SMA. Good sign.
  • Most likely: pushes higher to 2900-3000 level and fills gaps. Then pulls back, maybe to 2700 level, before resuming bigger leg up.
  • Support raised from 2500 to nearly 2700.
  • If closes below 2700, low probability that it goes down to 2450 or even 2250, but again, this is lower probability.
Oil: still dead. Until it gets above $27, I wouldn't be bullish. Where's the deal we've been told about for 2 weeks now? And again, we probably only have 2-3 weeks before we run out of global storage if they keep pumping.

Gold:$1650 is key support. Whatever happens there determines what it does next.
 

FireFoley

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Update...

Economy: still a zombie.
Markets: still near term bullish.

Again, from S&P charts:
  • Cosed above 50 day SMA. Good sign.
  • Most likely: pushes higher to 2900-3000 level and fills gaps. Then pulls back, maybe to 2700 level, before resuming bigger leg up.
  • Support raised from 2500 to nearly 2700.
  • If closes below 2700, low probability that it goes down to 2450 or even 2250, but again, this is lower probability.
Oil: still dead. Until it gets above $27, I wouldn't be bullish. Where's the deal we've been told about for 2 weeks now? And again, we probably only have 2-3 weeks before we run out of global storage if they keep pumping.

Gold:$1650 is key support. Whatever happens there determines what it does next.

Not agreeing or disagreeing but don;t be fooled by that $17 handle on oil. That is the May contract and it expires on Tuesday, so it has very little action. The main contract is the June contract and it is low to mid 20's already and each successive monthly futures contract is higher. The oil curve is in contango, but it does not mean that each successive contract won;t go lower b/c if you listen to the experts on the ground, spot oil prices in some areas are close to zero
 

FireFoley

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For reference, the Jun WTI contract closed Friday at roughly $25/barrell and is down about 80 cents in early trading tonite at just above $24.
 

Detroitgator

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For reference, the Jun WTI contract closed Friday at roughly $25/barrell and is down about 80 cents in early trading tonite at just above $24.
Down 5% now as I type... Bottom line is that Crude and 10 yr are the two things to watch...

Two headlines from this weekend:
  1. In last two weeks, Dow up most in 82 years (why, there is no economy?).
  2. Dow now more concentrated than ever in top 5 positions.
Again, I'm near term bullish, but this market is complete bull****
 

FireFoley

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Down 5% now as I type... Bottom line is that Crude and 10 yr are the two things to watch...

Two headlines from this weekend:
  1. In last two weeks, Dow up most in 82 years (why, there is no economy?).
  2. Dow now more concentrated than ever in top 5 positions.
Again, I'm near term bullish, but this market is complete bull****

Remember you yourself have said the stock market is not the economy and vice versa, that is absolutely correct. Forget about the Dow, it is only 30 stocks, but even the S&P 500 is concentrated in 10 or less stocks. 5 stocks make up almost 20% of the index. And I sit hear everyday and it is the exact same equities everyday and/or a variance of them. NFLX, AMZN, TDOC, ZM,AAPL,CLX,DG,WMT. All stay at home stuff or inexpensive retail. Here is what I don;t get. Yes everyone is at home playing video games and watching TV, but for instance NFLX is not the only company in that business. So is VIAC, so is DIS, so is T, . There is also a million other places to order from and get delivery for many times less money. So when we emerge from this and there is nothing but a monopoly in each sector of the economy, is everyone going to complain about monopolies as the people are the ones creating the monopolies?
 

Detroitgator

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Remember you yourself have said the stock market is not the economy and vice versa, that is absolutely correct. Forget about the Dow, it is only 30 stocks, but even the S&P 500 is concentrated in 10 or less stocks. 5 stocks make up almost 20% of the index. And I sit hear everyday and it is the exact same equities everyday and/or a variance of them. NFLX, AMZN, TDOC, ZM,AAPL,CLX,DG,WMT. All stay at home stuff or inexpensive retail. Here is what I don;t get. Yes everyone is at home playing video games and watching TV, but for instance NFLX is not the only company in that business. So is VIAC, so is DIS, so is T, . There is also a million other places to order from and get delivery for many times less money. So when we emerge from this and there is nothing but a monopoly in each sector of the economy, is everyone going to complain about monopolies as the people are the ones creating the monopolies?
The Fed is pumping those monopolies right now ;)
 

FireFoley

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Oh, the oddity of trading/owning commodity based ETFs. The May Crude Oil contract which expires on Tuesday just traded below $3/barrel The June price is $22/barrel. That ETF owns about 1/4 of all the May contracts so if does not want to have to deliver or take delivery of a barrel of oil it has to sell those contracts. It will then roll that money into the June and July and out contracts, and the number of shares of the USO that people own will probably go down. And this could happen again next month.
 

FireFoley

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I barely had time to hit the enter button on the above post and the May oil contract is down to $1/barrel. Negative here we come
 

Detroitgator

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Oh, the oddity of trading/owning commodity based ETFs. The May Crude Oil contract which expires on Tuesday just traded below $3/barrel The June price is $22/barrel. That ETF owns about 1/4 of all the May contracts so if does not want to have to deliver or take delivery of a barrel of oil it has to sell those contracts. It will then roll that money into the June and July and out contracts, and the number of shares of the USO that people own will probably go down. And this could happen again next month.
I'm trying to explain in the chat box that no, you can't buy the ETF today at the $1 price and it will magically jump to $22 tomorrow... futility
 

FireFoley

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I'm trying to explain in the chat box that no, you can't buy the ETF today at the $1 price and it will magically jump to $22 tomorrow... futility

:lmao::lmao::lmao::lmao::lmao:

Just tell them that can purchase a contract right now for NEGATIVE $7/barrel right now. Problem is if they still own it tomorrow at expiration they will have to deliver a barrel of oil to some destination.
 

FireFoley

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The regular hours trading session just closed and May oil closed at NEGATIVE $35/barrel. Something somewhere has blown up. Either some monster hedge fund or the ETF market is broken.
 

Detroitgator

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The regular hours trading session just closed and May oil closed at NEGATIVE $35/barrel. Something somewhere has blown up. Either some monster hedge fund or the ETF market is broken.
yeah, and i'm not a conspiracy theory guy, but given what i've said about the absolute need to prop up oil, we are straying well into the area of needing a false flag (or not even false) event
 

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