At what point this season will we know if Muschamp will be back for 2015?

[ergator920103]

http://theotherteam.net/2014/06/30/a...e-2015-season/ AT WHAT POINT THIS SEASON WILL WE KNOW IF MUSCHAMP WILL BE BACK FOR THE 2015 SEASON?

If I had to guess, I would say 3 or 4 out of 5 Gator fans already have Muschamp out the door after 2 less than stellar seasons. The 11-2 season 2 years ago isn’t enough for most to keep him around for another season. Even knowing that the biggest reason for the 4-8 debacle was due to a plague of injuries to very key players on both sides of the ball.
There have been a lot of questions about what it will take for Muschamp to save his job. We already know that Foley is not shy about pulling the trigger mid-season if things aren’t going well. Just ask Ron Zook.
So at what point this season will Muschamp’s job be safe… or at what point will Foley have to make a change to appease the Gator Nation?
Lets break down the season and see what Gator Fans or even Foley may be thinking.
The Warm Up Stretch
8/30 Idaho
9/6 Eastern Michigan
9/13 Kentucky
Fans Analysis: The likely response by Gators everywhere would probably sound something like this: “The Gators had better win all these games with 1000 point blowouts. 999 point differential and Muschamp should be fired.”
Realistic Analysis: I agree that if the Gators lose anyone of these three games, even if by one point, Muschamp is likely gone and may not even make it back to the locker room before he finds out. But the Gators offense will be breaking in a new Offensive Coordinator Kurt Roper’s system and there may be some touch and go for this stretch of games. That being said, with an absolutely stacked Gator defense, we should be able to shut out Idaho who has been a perennial bottom feeder, and Eastern Michigan should be limited to 10 points as they have not shown to be much of a threat. But maybe Georgia Southern gave them confidence that it can be done. However, I am guessing the Gators are pretty sick of hearing about it and will want to handle these guys pretty handily. Kentucky, under Mark Stoops has had a good stretch of recruiting, but they still have a lot of growing before they are ready to play a contender at any level of the SEC. However, Kentucky has scared Florida before, and early on I believe that may be the case again until Florida makes their usual dynamic changes at halftime and pull away to a comfortable lead.
The Group of Death
9/20 @Alabama
9/27 OPEN DATE
10/4 @Tennessee
10/11 LSU
Fans Analysis: “We need to be able to compete and win these games, especially in Tuscaloosa. Must win 2 of these three at minimum otherwise Muschamp is gonna be walking the unemployment line.”
Realistic Analysis: Lets face it, the Gators have not won in Tuscaloosa since 1998. 16 years is a long time not to get a win on a foes home turf. Not to mention the last several visits to Bama the Gators have lost in double figures. I don’t know how great of a loss it will be, but I don’t see the trend ending this year. So lets assume its atleast a 0-1 for the Gators in this group. After a week off, the Gators make another trip to Knoxville, where unlike Bama, the Gators have had some very good success. Butch Jones is in his second year and has recruited very very well. Are they ready to contend? Not 100%, but they will scare and they will upset someone along the way. This game will be a nail biter Im afraid. Gators are likely 1-1 after this visit. However, they come home to face LSU the very next week in Gainesville. They are likely pretty battered after battles with the Tide and Vols, but the Tigers have a lot of question marks specifically at QB. It will be difficult to say how this game will go, but I think it will unfortunately be a loss thanks to the LSU defense and the Gators are 1-2. So to answer the question about Muschamp’s fate, I think he is likely safe so long as the team is riddled with injuries again and none of these games are blow out losses.
The Battle for the SEC East
10/18 Missouri
10/ 25 OPEN DATE
11/1 Jawjuh (Jacksonville, Fl)
11/8 @Vanderbilt
11/15 South Carolina
Fans Analysis: “Florida MUST win the SEC East in order for Muschamp to save his job. ”
Realistic Analysis: The SEC-East is ripe for the taking, and really, assuming the Gators offense gets rolling and manages to score on a (more) regular basis the defense has enough to stop these teams. Mizzou’s Mauk may be the most experienced of these SEC-East foes and he certainly assisted the Tigers in bludgeoning the Gators in 2013. I think Florida must at least go 2-2 in this stretch for Muschamp to keep his name in future Gator media guides. But I think those two must be Jawjuh and Vanderbilt. If the Gators go 1-3, Muschamp may want to give his agent and real estate agent a call. This is the shakiest portion of the schedule to decide Muschamp’s fate and I cant help but feel that another loss to the Leghumpers may be his demise.
The Home Away From Home Stretch
11/22 Eastern Kentucky
11/29 @Florida State
Fans Analysis: “Lose to the Colonels and Muschamp will be run out of town with a mob carrying 15 foot alligators on leashes, pitch forks and torches. Get blown out by the CrimiNoles again and you might share the same fate.”
Realistic Analysis: I think the first part may be true. Lose to Eastern Kentucky and Florida is officially in the hunt for a new head coach. After losing to Georgia Southern.. losing to Eastern Kentucky would cause an uproar perhaps 50 times worse than anything Zook had to endure. Beat the Colonels but lose to the Noles by another blow out? Maybe. If you lose to the SmelliNoles, Leghumpers and 1 or 2 other SEC-East foes… Muschamp may be a cooked goose. Did you know that Jeff Driskel is undefeated vs. the Noles?
One Caveat. If the Gators make it to the SEC Championship game regardless of who we lost to… Muschamp will be back in 2015.
So what scenario(s) do you have Muschamp saving or losing his job?

 

[Gator Fever]

I think he has to go 8-4 pre-bowl to have any chance of remaining and may need one of the wins to be against Georgia - he may survive with 4 losses including Georgia only due to Foley being on his side but the big boosters may force his ouster possibly in that scenario.

As far as when we will know - I think the Tenn and LSU games are huge. Lose to both and he is 100% gone - even splitting the two if we already lost to Bama makes me think he will not survive.

 

[-THE DUDE-]

When UF beats bama

 

[Gator Fever]

When UF beats bama

If he pulls that off I doubt he will be going anywhere either.

 

[MJMGator]

The Cocktail party will be the defining game in my opinion.

 

[GatorJB]

I think we'll have a pretty good idea about Muschamp's future after the South Carolina game. It could be sooner, but there are too many possible scenarios at play to know for sure.

 

[TallyGator]

I think it will be late November/early December. Seriously doubt that Foley "Zookers" him.

 

[Gator Fever]

I think it will be late November/early December. Seriously doubt that Foley "Zookers" him.

He would have been gone last year if Zook standards applied.

 

[-THE DUDE-]

The Cocktail party will be the defining game in my opinion.

that only matters on how well the season is going up to that point. If UF is undefeated and loses that game it has 0 impact on him being here. We already have 2-4 losses at that point and he's gone. uga is important to the fans and some may still want him gone if he loses to uga and it's our only regular season loss like 2012 but that is not reality. There is 0 chance that happens.

 

[kepler]

I'm assuming he's gone, we just have to wait for Foley to realize it.

 

[Double Gator Dad]

He would have been gone last year if Zook standards applied.

I disagree, the Zook firing was due to more than wins and losses. Zook had completely lost control of his team and it showed on the field. Whether Muschamp wins enough or not this year remains to be seen but he has not lost control of the program.

 

[Gator Fever]

I disagree, the Zook firing was due to more than wins and losses. Zook had completely lost control of his team and it showed on the field. Whether Muschamp wins enough or not this year remains to be seen but he has not lost control of the program.

Then I guess Muschamp lost even more control when a 1AA team beat us. Zook was gone regardless of that frat incident and he had a better first 3 years than Muschamp who has had 2 losing SEC seasons and hasn't beat our main SEC rival.

 

[TheDouglas78]

He would have been gone last year if Zook standards applied.

I disagree, the Zook firing was due to more than wins and losses. Zook had completely lost control of his team and it showed on the field. Whether Muschamp wins enough or not this year remains to be seen but he has not lost control of the program.

Zook's greatest crime was being the Coach after Spurrier and with a President who wanted regime change and had a coach selected. Zook put a better product on the field than Muschamp has. Zook was gone before the MSU loss, that just was the final nail in a already sealed coffin. But to say that Muschamp had more on field control of his team after three years than Zook did. That is laughable. Zook's team at least played hard for him until the end including his last game at Tallahasse. Can't say the same about the team last year at the end of the season for Muschamp.

Muschamp like Zook has earned his ticket out. Now he has a stay of execution, and could prove worth staying. But no one would have complained if he was broken off after last season.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

I fully expect them to leave him Jacksonville ala Lame Kiffy.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

He would have been gone last year if Zook standards applied.

I disagree, the Zook firing was due to more than wins and losses. Zook had completely lost control of his team and it showed on the field. Whether Muschamp wins enough or not this year remains to be seen but he has not lost control of the program.

That's laughable. The team quit on him as his ridiculous just punt and run out the clock offense against Looeyvulle and never returned. Once the team quits, it's over for a coach.

There just weren't any decent options for a replacement last year.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

I think it will be late November/early December. Seriously doubt that Foley "Zookers" him.

I doubt he would consider anything else. Firing him in October will ensure we have plenty of time to find the right replacement.

 

[MJMGator]

He would have been gone last year if Zook standards applied.

I disagree, the Zook firing was due to more than wins and losses. Zook had completely lost control of his team and it showed on the field. Whether Muschamp wins enough or not this year remains to be seen but he has not lost control of the program.

Last year's team gave up early and often by mid season. I don't ever recall seeing that out of any of Zook's teams.

 

[SaltGator]

The Cocktail party will be the defining game in my opinion.

This, beat Georgia and 8 or 9 wins.

 

[Dugaboy]

If we lose to UGA and FSU

 

[deuce]

To say we have to beat this team or that team doesn't seem reasonable to me. I think it will be about how we win or lose, how competitive we are.
Also comparing Zook and WM is like comparing teams from different era's. Times have changed, Foley is older and more experienced and the President isn't pulling strings behind the scene.

I'm just anxious to get started.

Gators 2014, 9-3