BB Final Stretch

[lagator]

As we head toward the regular season end, there is still a lot of uncertainty about our post-season fate. Currently we are projected as around a 7-9 seed. Of course that is assuming we will continue to win at our current pace of around 65%.

Ignoring the SECT for now, there are 8 games left, 4 at home and 4 on the road. So if we want to keep pace with where we are right now, that would be finishing 5 and 3. If we go 4-4 we are going to need to help ourselves in the SECT, and a loss in the first round of the SECT, and we could be looking at an NIT bid.

So here's how I see it breaking down, we have to win our home games with the possible exception of the UK game. That means tonight's game against Ole Miss and Saturday's game against Alabama must wins. We also really can't afford to lose at home to Vandy on 2/23/16. A loss in any of those 3 and we are in serious trouble unless we somehow figure out how to win in tough environments on the road.

Obviously our best bet for a road win is the final game of the conference schedule March 5th against really bad Missouri team. The other 3 road games are going to be tough since the home court advantage has been huge this year. Probably our best bet of a road win other than at Mizzou is 2/16 @ UGA.

So what do you think? I say 5-3 assures us of a Tourney bid even if we tank in the first round of the SECT, going 4-4 likely leaves us in a place we don't want to be, needing at least one win in the SECT, and 3-5 or worse and we're out, short of winning the SECT.

 

[MidwestChomp]

I agree with your assessment. I think we'll beat Mizzou on the road. If we lose to UK at home (we need another key win) we need to beat UGA on the road. I would love a South Carolina road win, but don't think that will happen. 11 or 12 wins in conference and we'll be in. If we have 10 wins we might slip to one of those 'play in games'

 

[Durty South Swamp]

I think we should change the thread title to BB Final Stench, its more apropos.

 

[t-gator]

5-3 down the stretch. Win a game or 2 in the conference tourney and we should be safe.

 

[LeeForThree]

Don't think it's nearly as bad as you make it out to be. 4-4 with winning the home games only probably gets us between a 7-9 seed regardless of the SECT. This is not like most years, 1 seeds will moat like have between 4 and 7 losses. With our SOS, RPI, and BPI we are at a good spot now if we just keep winning games we should. Winning any of the road games will probably give us more room for error as well.

I think we can sweep at home, beat LSU, SC, and Missouri. Regardless of the SEC Tourney that should give us roughly a 5 seed or a little better.

We need to win 3/4 at home and the 1/4 on the road. That would put us on the bubble with a loss in the SECT, but again with our rankings and SOS I still think we would get a 10ish seed

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[rogdochar]

Durty, I gave a like for the wordplay, not the BB-play assessment. It's true that we need a
good sense of humor observing this team.
Hope the rest is a fine learning-yearning experience for our fellows.

 

[lagator]

Don't think it's nearly as bad as you make it out to be. 4-4 with winning the home games only probably gets us between a 7-9 seed regardless of the SECT. This is not like most years, 1 seeds will moat like have between 4 and 7 losses. With our SOS, RPI, and BPI we are at a good spot now if we just keep winning games we should. Winning any of the road games will probably give us more room for error as well.

I think we can sweep at home, beat LSU, SC, and Missouri. Regardless of the SEC Tourney that should give us roughly a 5 seed or a little better.

We need to win 3/4 at home and the 1/4 on the road. That would put us on the bubble with a loss in the SECT, but again with our rankings and SOS I still think we would get a 10ish seed

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I wouldn't say you see it "not nearly as bad", maybe slightly better. You said pretty much the same thing I did in so many words. If we lose to UK at home and our only win road win is at Mizzou we are looking at the bubble and could need at least one win in the SECT to be safe. If we go 5-3 we are fine even if we blow it in the SECT. And of course, if we go 4-0 at home and 2-2 or 3-1 on the road we're going to move up from our current projection.

 

[LeeForThree]

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I wouldn't say you see it "not nearly as bad", maybe slightly better. You said pretty much the same thing I did in so many words. If we lose to UK at home and our only win road win is at Mizzou we are looking at the bubble and could need at least one win in the SECT to be safe. If we go 5-3 we are fine even if we blow it in the SECT. And of course, if we go 4-0 at home and 2-2 or 3-1 on the road we're going to move up from our current projection.

I agree. I was thinking your post was insinuating that we would be on the bubble bubble sitting on the outside. I probably misinterpreted some of your post.

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[lagator]

I agree. I was thinking your post was insinuating that we would be on the bubble bubble sitting on the outside. I probably misinterpreted some of your post.

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Well you did point out that 4-4 with a win against UK almost certainly gets us in even if we finish with only 19 wins, and that's a good point. In fact 4-4 with a win over UK, LSU, and maybe even USC is probably enough.

 

[GatorBart]

Good discussion la and Lee. I agree with you fellers.

 

[Gatorphan]

This season is in college basketball is like no other I've ever seen. Nobody seems to have consistency. I'm watching Mighigan State, who has looked as good as any team in the land over the last few weeks, getting beat up by Purdue. Home court has been king in the NCAA this year, that's about it.

There's no telling how far this Gator team (or anybody decent) could go in a tourney. It hurts my head to even try to make a prediction.

Edit - just as soon as I make this post MSU cut it from 16 to 6.

 

[t-gator]

I wish we had the fsu and Tennessee games back. We would be pretty much clinched a spot right now.

 

[MidwestChomp]

I hope the FSU loss doesn't come back to haunt us.

 

[lagator]

One down, Bama up next. Unless we really tank that should be a win. Like most of the teams in the SEC (and the country) Bama has not been able to pull upsets on the road. I think they only have one Conf road win and needed OT for that. Our huge home court advantage along with our superior size and athleticism should be too much for them to overcome. If we take Obasohan out of his game by sticking a body on him the whole night like we did Moody they should struggle to keep up offensively.

Take care of business and we're right on track. This is getting pretty fun.

 

[Double Gator Dad]

Great subject guys.

The problem for me is that this team is so unpredictable that we really have no idea how they will finish. Let's be honest, this team could win or lose any game remaining on the schedule due to the lack of consistency.
The game last night was a microcosm of the season, they had streaks of strong defense and disciplined offense, followed by streaks of complete disarray. Just when you think the light has turned on, they lay an egg.
I will take the high road and predict that we win 4 of the 7 remaining but.......

 

[Gatorphan]

Alabama just beat aTm. Saturday is no gimme.

 

[Gatorbait25]

Alabama just beat aTm. Saturday is no gimme.

Wow. A and M has dropped a few lately.

 

[Since65]

Great subject guys.

The problem for me is that this team is so unpredictable that we really have no idea how they will finish. Let's be honest, this team could win or lose any game remaining on the schedule due to the lack of consistency.
The game last night was a microcosm of the season, they had streaks of strong defense and disciplined offense, followed by streaks of complete disarray. Just when you think the light has turned on, they lay an egg.
I will take the high road and predict that we win 4 of the 7 remaining but.......

I agree with your assessment but wonder why fans would have expected anything more than what we're currently observing? Last year's team was below average despite being led by a Hall of Fame coach. This year we have much the same team led by a new head coach. There are a few new additions, some of them pretty good but nothing approaching a one and done type player. All things considered I think White has settled in nicely and the team is playing about as well as can be expected. The inconsistency is not a great surprise based on all the ingredients.

 

[RobertPooner]

Alabama just beat aTm. Saturday is no gimme.

There is no such thing as a gimme with this team anyway. Just stick a guard on Obamasu or whatever his name is like they did with Moody and I like our chances.

 

[MidwestChomp]

The game was at Bama, and A&M missed some free throws late. I'm not concerned. Bama is not a good road team.