Blue-Chip Ratio 2022: The 15 teams who can actually win a national title

GR8 2B

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Winning a national championship in college football requires a lot of things. It takes coaching, luck, timing, scheduling, and yes, talent.

Sometimes, the most talented team in college football is the champion. Sometimes, it’s a lesser-talented team. But what is the minimum level of talent needed to win it all? That’s a potentially evolving question of interest every year.

Put simply, to win the national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits (AKA “Blue Chips”) than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes.

This is a necessary but not sufficient condition. It does not guarantee a national championship, but a team not meeting it is almost certainly guaranteed not to win it all.

HOW HAS THIS STAT PERFORMED IN THE PAST?
  • In 2021, Georgia had an 80 percent BCR and won it all, beating the No. 1 BCR team Alabama in the title game. Three of the four playoff teams were BCR teams as Cincinnati was the first crasher since 2017.
  • In 2020, Alabama had an 83 percent BCR and won it all. All four Playoff teams were BCR schools.
  • In 2019, LSU won it with a 64 percent BCR, and all four Playoff teams were BCR schools.
  • Clemson, with a 61 percent mark, took it home in 2018. And all four Playoff teams were BCR schools.
  • Alabama won it all in 2017 with an incredible 80 percent mark.
  • Clemson took home the title in 2016 after signing 52 percent blue chips in the 2013-16 classes.
  • In 2015, Alabama had a 77 percent mark.
  • In 2014, it was Ohio State at 68 percent.
  • In 2013, Florida State was at 53 percent.
  • In 2012, Alabama was at 71 percent ...
  • ... just as Bama was in 2011.

LET'S GET TO THE 2022 LIST​

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FINALLY, LET’S LOOK AT THE BCR WITH THE TRANSFERS​

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Bloviate.
 

NavetG8r

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There's always a chance of a group of 3 and 4 star guys putting it all together once the majority of them are experienced and well disciplined, but the chance can be greatly improved by getting some of those top 50 can't miss types.
 

maheo30

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There is a huge difference between the top 3 and the rest and it is in the trenches. Sure, one of the other teams can win it all if they have an elite QB or a few 3 or 4 stars put it together like @NavetG8r said. I think the Florida team this year will be really good. However, we have no depth whatsoever on the lines of scrimmage. A single injury, like at LT or DT, could devastate us.
 

gatorev12

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It'll be interesting to see what this index looks like in a few years time when Napier gets more recruiting classes under his belt. 2023's class is shaping up to be 90% Blue Chips..
 

G. Gordon Gator

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FINALLY, LET’S LOOK AT THE BCR WITH THE TRANSFERS
View attachment 46512

Bloviate.

Wow, is that right? So NO TEAM has had a net gain in Blue Chip talent as a result of the Tranfer Portal except for Bama, and theirs was only +1%?

If that's accurate, personally I consider it good news. I thought the transfer portal would be more impactful, and was not happy about it.
 

Durty South Swamp

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Tranny portal is largely fools gold. And the few occasions when it does work, it's very short term gain.
 

Bayougator

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Were Montrell Johnson and O’Cyrus blue chips coming out of high school? They certainly would be now. With a year or two of college experience you get different blue chips.
 

NavetG8r

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Were Montrell Johnson and O’Cyrus blue chips coming out of high school? They certainly would be now. With a year or two of college experience you get different blue chips.

They're better than blue chips. They're champions. Been there done that kind of guys. They'll be great examples in the locker room.
 

G. Gordon Gator

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They're better than blue chips. They're champions. Been there done that kind of guys. They'll be great examples in the locker room.
Maybe we need a different color to refer to top prospects in the transfer portal. Considering the implications of the NIL Era, we should call them Green Chips.
 

Gator By Marriage

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Wow, is that right? So NO TEAM has had a net gain in Blue Chip talent as a result of the Tranfer Portal except for Bama, and theirs was only +1%?

If that's accurate, personally I consider it good news. I thought the transfer portal would be more impactful, and was not happy about it.
What’s misleading about that is the question of whether someone would still be a blue chip. Take Bama for example. The blue chips they lost were not getting much, if any playing time. The ones they gained are likely to be either starters or major contributors.

In our case, we lost some guys who were solid and gained some who were solid, plus one who is potentially an all-SEC player (Torrence) at a real position of need. Overall, I think we improved.
 

Alumni Guy

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Just like any list composed of top Universities, FSU is absent.

Does that school TRY to suck at everything!?!?
 

I Have No Friends :(

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Kickers ought not to factor into the whole star ratings for teams...
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Durty South Swamp

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Seems to me I remember a QB from tpOSU who transferred to LSU with some short term impact.
I'm talking about us numbnuts but my statement is accurate. For every Joe burrow there are a boatload of failed second chancers.
 

ThreatMatrix

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Tranny portal is largely fools gold. And the few occasions when it does work, it's very short term gain.
Yeah I think that stat is deceiving. The kid that transfers out probably wasn't seeing the field and the kid you get you expect to play. It's not like you're just trading a 4* for a 4*. You're trading "essentially" a bust for what you expect to be a fit. And now the way the rules have changed those kids could be around for a few seasons.
 

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