They figured a way to leverage modern day tulips.....what could ever go wrong.
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Frilly Dilly won't see a lick of jail time.....
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Lending other peoples leveraged crypto....what could possibly go wrong.... @FireFoley you see any effects this may have on the bond market? My guess is the stock market despite lower 10yr is going to be a mess between now and Jan./Feb. what's your take?Gemini, BlockFi, Genesis announcing new restrictions as FTX contagion spreads
The lending arm of the crypto investment bank Genesis Global Trading is pausing new loan originations and redemptions.
There is no way of knowing for sure but what is noticeable is that curve inversion (2-10) is approaching almost never seen before levels. Minus 67 basis points today. Clearly the market is sniffing severe slowdown in the future into rising short term rates from Grand Master J. The 20 year auction today was very strong driving longer rates even lower. But my experiences tell me that any financial or political stress (see Poland yesterday) sends people into the Treasury market for safety. I think a bit of that is going on yes. And with the Dallas Fed releasing their report today of a probably 20% drop in home prices nationally on the horizon, that also makes people think. There is no telling how many people delve into crypto, but like any other "thing of value", if people feel wealthy they will spend. If not they run and hide. I suspect that Xmas will be a tough sell this year, tax loss selling will be heavier than normal and the first of year might be difficult if the MSM starts talking about imminent recession. Most on the blower still think economy can muddle thru, but many like me think we are already in recession. And after Xmas I am not sure what the consumer can do to continue to support the needed spending. Sure you saw that household debt hit an all time record last month. I assume that will continue monthly until something shatters.
I noticed the short rate vs 10yr earlier today and converted my 3 month TB's to 6 month CD at 4.50. Hope that was the right move but what I'm wondering is if a lot of big Hedge Funds where holding a lot of the crypto....Won't they start selling off to cover losses there? Might drive the short end higher and make for some nice bargain basement prices on stocks? I'm also hoping they unload metals and drive those prices into the back of my truck....
Asking me about anyhting crypto and if they will sell, etc. is not my area of expertise. I plead ignorance on that front, but remember when Subrime was only like a a few billion bux or a very "manageable" situation? I have no idea but who knows where this crypto thing goes. More banruptcies today and the WinkleVi twins have Gemini which is into all this mess. I just hope they don;t lose all that ZuckerPutz money they got from their FaceShyt settlement. I too have overloaded in short term Treasurys, but in all honesty the big money was made buying 10 years and out a few months ago. Yes, less yield, but the prices have gone up dramatically so big profits to be made. But my plan and perhaps yours? was to just earn a decent interest rate and then reevaluate. But I am always looking at my list of stocks just to see if they reach my shopping prices. The curve inversion is really telling and I just do not know for how much longer the FED can ignore that. The problem is, to be frank, the FED needs massive firings and layoffs and they ain;t getting them.I noticed the short rate vs 10yr earlier today and converted my 3 month TB's to 6 month CD at 4.50. Hope that was the right move but what I'm wondering is if a lot of big Hedge Funds where holding a lot of the crypto....Won't they start selling off to cover losses there? Might drive the short end higher and make for some nice bargain basement prices on stocks? I'm also hoping they unload metals and drive those prices into the back of my truck....
