Recruiting Do Stars Really Matter? A review of ESD

alcoholica

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Wanted to take another look at ESD from a position by position perspective and start a discussion on where the class really stands. Currently, we have 20 signees and one commit (Diwan Black). We are ranked #17 on Rivals and 247.

QB - Jalon Jones 5.7 3* - He was ranked a 4* earlier in the process, but never really heard what happened that made him drop. He appears to have found a great landing spot for his skill set.

RB - Nay'Quan Wright 5.8 4* - Played in the big boy Miami area football. At one point was considered the #1 RB in the state, prior to an ankle? injury. Some coaches have told Gators Breakdown, they believe he could still be. Blend of power and speed. Another solid RB in the stable.

WR - Dionte Marks 5.5 3*
Ja'Markis Weston 5.7 3*


Neither of these guys appeared to have camped, so their ranking could be artificially lower than their peers. Marks refusal to compete at FNL is troubling. Both appear to have better than average size. Weston gained a sleeper tag during signing day. While I don't like the "trust the coaches" mentality, Mullen was giddy about Weston and obviously thinks he stole one.

TE - Keon Zipperer 5.8 4* - Very fluid runner, needs to work on blocking. Decent size. Should be a matchup problem in the passing game.

OL - Deyavie Hammond 5.8 4*
Michael Tarquin 5.8 4*
Kingsley Eguakun 5.6 3*
Will Harrod 5.8 4*
Riley Simonds 5.7 3*
Ethan White 5.6 3*
Wardrick Wilson 5.8 4*


Lot of guys with good size. Four of the seven are blue chippers, but all low end 4*s. Lot of numbers and potential, but it's the numbers and size of prospects that stands out.

DL - Lloyd Summerall 5.8 4*
Mohamoud Diabate 5.8 4*
Jaelin Humphries 5.8 4*


Need more numbers. Humphries appears legit, but WDE looks to have some projects at the position. Diabate was originally listed as a LB and Summerall is light.

LB - Tyron Hopper 5.9 4*
Jesiah Pierre 5.6 3*


Diwan Black may very well end up in this class and with this group, but right now, we have these two listed. Hopper is light, but is one of our highest rated guys. Not sure if Pierre camped at all (I hope not given his rating), but he certainly looks the part. Let's hope Pierre is not a looks like Tarzan plays like Jane situation. Hoping more for a looks like Tarzan plays like Kong.

DB - Chester Kimbrough 5.8 4*
Jaydon Hill 5.7 3*


This groups needs some work, and Mullen admitted as much. Steele is reported to be signed, but we have to wait and see. We have some other high end prospects we're looking at, with Elam being our best shot at an elite player (outside of Steele). Black and Whittemore could both end up in this group. Also, Dean could easily slip back into Safety or Nickel.

ATH - Diwan Black 5.9 4*
Trent Whittemore 5.6 3*


Black is likely our best prospect, if he can qualify. He may have to go to prep school, but it certainly appears as though he's close to qualifying. He'll either start his path at safety of LB, but most think the move to LB will happen at some point. No one has mentioned that Kearse was a safety in HS, and maybe that's a good comparison.

Whittemore is rumored to start off at WR. Not hearing a lot of positives in regard to his on field prospects. Is rumored to have good hands and a great utility player in terms of understanding the game. Hopefully, he can find a niche and be a contributor, which is more than a lot of higher ranked kids end up being.

Take aways
  • While we have several 4* kids, most are the lowest ranking (5.8)
  • We have three kids (Marks, Pierre, Weston) that didn't appear to camp. Weston may be a sleeper....Pierre too.
  • Hill is a question mark to me. He better be special, because Mullen could easily get a 3* from FL, which would have helped future recruiting in FL
  • We do seem to have fits in the class. Jalon Jones should play much higher than his 3* rating. I think Weston is another that should play higher than his rating. Someone else can comment on the OL and if they see any good matches for the system.
  • We've got to do work on the DL and DB classes, which Mullen has commented on. IF we finish strong in these areas, we would have addressed our needs.

The book isn't closed on this class, but there is a lot of work to be done on the defensive side of the ball. We have a guy like Diwan Black, who should be a top 50 (maybe top 20), but is ranked 155. If we can fill the defensive spots remaining with 4* talent, I'm willing to say this is an underrated class, but not dramatically so. I'd say 2-4 spots based on Black and Jones being an optimal fit.

Also keep in mind, we are in line to potentially get two grad transfers: Jonathan Greenard and Stewart Reese. Greenard was injured this past year but had 7 sack and 15.5 TFL in 2017. Reese started all 13 games at RT for Mullen in 2017 and was the starter in 2018. Both of these guys would appear to be instant contributors. If this class somehow ends up top 10, these two proven quantities could push us to a talent bump close enough to consider the class a win.
 

Alumni Guy

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Good summary and much appreciated.

Early signing day has ruined ‘crootin season for me. After bowl season I would get to learn the ‘croots and dork out about who took what visit and who would flip.

Now that most croots sign early and the Gators are NOWHERE on the Rivals 100, I know nothing about our incoming class.
 

JDW

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The thing I heard about Jalon Jones was he got into a fight and has to sit out the State Championship game acing they lost by a wide margin without him at QB but his measurable abilities and size are spot on for Mullen offense
 

Swamp Donkey

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JJ is a 3* on Rivals, but is still a 4* on ESPN and 247.
Rivals does matter but also note that Rivals measures general abilities and favors game changing passers. They also punish kids for things like getting suspended bc it shows the kid is somewhat less likely to contribute in college. This no doubt also lowered Diwun's rating.

Would JJ be an elite QB in most systems? probably not, as his passing game is still rudimentary. Could he be elite Mullinz system which requires running ability first and only simple throws and passing reads? Yes, IMO.
 

BMF

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Long story short...but yes, stars DO matter. Anyone arguing otherwise is pretty much a hard-headed retard. Sure, a few slip through the cracks and we can spend all day pointing out 2 and 3 star kids who turned into studs. And we can also look at the last 20 national champions (and runners-up) and see that their roster is chocked full of blue-chip players.

JJ only did one early camp (where he showed off his 40 time and new weight). He was listed at 6'2 180lbs up until he attended that lone camp. In an article he mentioned that when he showed up to UF for a visit the coaches were wowed by how much he had grown and how much weight he had put on. The kid is an athlete and comes from a family of athletes (dad was a stud college LB at Colorado, making over 300 career tackles; mom was an Olympian, and track star in college; older sister plays for UNC woman's basketball). His knock is his limited passing stats. He has the body to grow into a 230+lb QB, which is perfect for what Mullen does.

I wouldn't worry about Summerall's weight. Sure, he likely doesn't play next year because of it. But I pointed out, if you go to Rivals and/or 247's list of WDE's they are mostly similar size. Alabama signed a WDE that is 6'4 218 (Diabate is 6'4 220). Nolan Smith, #1 WDE, is 6'3 228. Khris Bogle, the #3 WDE on Rivals is 6'5 215 (Summerall is 6'6 210).

Kimbrough's film is incredible. He's a low 4-star on 247. Travaris Robinson said Hill is the best HS DB he's ever seen - should have been a 5-star.

Riley Simonds played on a HS OL that had 5 kids sign w/ D1 schools - one was a 5-star that went to Ohio State. If he was on a typical HS team he would have stood out and likely been rated higher.

IMO, Tarquin is the best OL we signed. White was/is a reach - will be interesting to see if he develops or fizzles out.
 

alcoholica

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Long story short...but yes, stars DO matter. Anyone arguing otherwise is pretty much a hard-headed retard. Sure, a few slip through the cracks and we can spend all day pointing out 2 and 3 star kids who turned into studs. And we can also look at the last 20 national champions (and runners-up) and see that their roster is chocked full of blue-chip players.

JJ only did one early camp (where he showed off his 40 time and new weight). He was listed at 6'2 180lbs up until he attended that lone camp. In an article he mentioned that when he showed up to UF for a visit the coaches were wowed by how much he had grown and how much weight he had put on. The kid is an athlete and comes from a family of athletes (dad was a stud college LB at Colorado, making over 300 career tackles; mom was an Olympian, and track star in college; older sister plays for UNC woman's basketball). His knock is his limited passing stats. He has the body to grow into a 230+lb QB, which is perfect for what Mullen does.

I wouldn't worry about Summerall's weight. Sure, he likely doesn't play next year because of it. But I pointed out, if you go to Rivals and/or 247's list of WDE's they are mostly similar size. Alabama signed a WDE that is 6'4 218 (Diabate is 6'4 220). Nolan Smith, #1 WDE, is 6'3 228. Khris Bogle, the #3 WDE on Rivals is 6'5 215 (Summerall is 6'6 210).

Kimbrough's film is incredible. He's a low 4-star on 247. Travaris Robinson said Hill is the best HS DB he's ever seen - should have been a 5-star.

Riley Simonds played on a HS OL that had 5 kids sign w/ D1 schools - one was a 5-star that went to Ohio State. If he was on a typical HS team he would have stood out and likely been rated higher.

IMO, Tarquin is the best OL we signed. White was/is a reach - will be interesting to see if he develops or fizzles out.

I really wanted to start a discussion on two fronts. Stars vs. Fit (i.e. Jalon Jones) and how grad transfers are affecting recruiting. We all know stars matter in aggregate. However, did Mullen find guys that will out perform their stars due his system?
 

Swamp Donkey

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As for Sumerall and Diabate, both are about 210ish pounds and desperately need weightroom work. Both have been listed as OLB at times. It is hard to imagine them playing soon on the line and they need to be about 250ish (CeCe sized) to play OLB effectively (taking on TE innrun support).

You mentioned I would and Kearse. Frankly I don't see that at all. Jevon was a guy who played safety in high school but we always thought he was going to be an outside linebacker. Also, frankly, Kearse was terrible at run support and pass coverage. His game was simply blitz, though he was incredibly elite at that. Sumerall and Diabete are more Kearselike, I guess, in that they are also one trick ponies rush backers.

Diwun is not that guy at all and is a much more rounded player though obviously not an elite pass-rusher.
 

GR8 2B

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Great post, alky. Assuming we get Steele, Elam and Greenard, what further needs remain at DL and DB, and who might be available to fill those needs?
 

Swamp Donkey

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However, did Mullen find guys that will out perform their stars due his system?
Only if you are talking QB. Other than his completely QBcentric playcalling, the rest of his "system" is unremarkable.

Big bodied WRs who block first (and on most plays) are another Mullinz trait but that is common to many option offenses.
 
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Swamp Donkey

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Great post, alky. Assuming we get Steele, Elam and Greenard, what further needs remain at DL and DB, and who might be available to fill those needs?
Elam is a bad assumption. Many think he leans Ugly with scUM trailing us. Stampini still has us CBed but Ugly is pretty confident. We haven't won too many battles versus ugly lately.
 
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BMF

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Great post, alky. Assuming we get Steele, Elam and Greenard, what further needs remain at DL and DB, and who might be available to fill those needs?

Unless we get an unknown Safety (or convert one of the CB's we signed) we should be done at DB.

We need at least one more heavy DL (DT and/or SDE). Not for next year, but for the future of the team. Fuller was the top candidate to fill that spot. Byron Young (Alabama commit) is the other (kid is from Mississippi) - as far as blue-chips. Other than those two it's likely a Plan B.
 

AnObfuscator

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I really wanted to start a discussion on two fronts. Stars vs. Fit (i.e. Jalon Jones) and how grad transfers are affecting recruiting. We all know stars matter in aggregate. However, did Mullen find guys that will out perform their stars due his system?

3* can mean many things. You can get stuck as a 3* because you aren't as athletic as you should be, or undersized, or raw and underdeveloped.

I don't know enough about evaluating players to know which kind of 3*s Mullen recruited this year, or how they will perform. But Mullen has a good track record of evaluating and developing good 3* talant.

I have no issues with any of the players Mullen is taking. His 3*s will mostly be solid contributors. These aren't Randy Specials, probably. My issues with Mullen's recruiting is the players he isn't getting -- specifically more high 4* and 5* talent.
 

alcoholica

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Only if you are talking QB. Other than his completely QBcentric playcalling, the rest of his "system" is unremarkable.
i don't know enough about the OL play or our recruits to know if some of the guys will thrive in this system. Sure seems like mobile guys would have a leg up on getting playing time. I also think someone like Weston, who appears to have good hands could play better than his rating. He's big enough to block, so if he can be a reliable receiver, then he's probably a plus. Although it'd be nice if we can get more Grimes types that have speed too.
 

alcoholica

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Unless we get an unknown Safety (or convert one of the CB's we signed) we should be done at DB.

We need at least one more heavy DL (DT and/or SDE). Not for next year, but for the future of the team. Fuller was the top candidate to fill that spot. Byron Young (Alabama commit) is the other (kid is from Mississippi) - as far as blue-chips. Other than those two it's likely a Plan B.
Are we out of it with Pickering?
 

alcoholica

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Honestly, I have no clue. I don't like relying on these out of state kids....but he's still on the list.
yeah, I'm glad the future classes appear to be going after FL kids
 

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