Gators breakdown article and stats from Will Miles

[Omar's Coming Yo!]

Since 2005, there have been 132 Power-5 conference head coaching hires, including 11 who – similar to Mullen – have yet to coach a game. I examined multiple metrics from each coach’s first three seasons to hopefully paint a complete picture about what is historically necessary to win nationally and in the SEC. The metrics included were the following:

• Win/loss record during the year prior to the coach’s arrival
• Win/loss record for each coach’s first three years at the program
• Eight different recruiting metrics for each of their first three recruiting classes

2 coaches have won the SEC after year 3: Tuberville and Fat Phil
79% of New hires see a increase in recruiting ranking in bump class.

This percentage is actually a little higher in the SEC, as second classes rose only 6 spots on average – from roughly 24th to 18th – but represent an improvement of 25 percent (since 1st and 2nd year classes are ranked higher in the SEC than the national average). Based on this, a reasonable expectation for Mullen’s transition class would be a finish of 10th or 11th, as a 25 percent improvement would be 10.5.

Of course, that does ignore Gators history, as previous UF coaches since Steve Spurrier have seen their classes improve by 9 spots, from 13.5 to 4.5, an improvement of 67 percent. If Mullen were to maintain this average, his 2019 class would finish with a national ranking of 4th or 5th.

While it might seem counterintuitive that a coach would need help from his second recruiting class to win an early championship, that’s exactly what happened with the following bump class-additions:

• Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin from Urban Meyer’s 2006 class at Florida
• Cam Newton from Gene Chizik’s 2010 class at Auburn
• Mark Ingraham from Nick Saban’s 2008 class at Alabama
• Jake Fromm from Kirby Smart’s 2017 class at Georgia

Also, if you’re counting at home, that’s 3 Heisman trophy winners acquired in the bump classes of the last 6 SEC championship-winning coach hires. So yeah, the bump class is a little important. But just how good were the bump classes of these guys? Well, the aforementioned future SEC champion coaches acquired bump classes that averaged:

Additionally, the 6 future SEC Championship coaches hired since 2005 saw the following during their bump class:

• An increase of 8.2 spots in the national rankings
• An increase 2.3 spots in the conference rankings
• An average of 2.3 5-star recruits
• An average national ranking of 4.7
• An average conference ranking of 2.3
• An average of 16.8 blue-chips (4 or 5-star recruits) in the class

Mullen is a great transition class recruiter but falters in bump class joining some pretty bad coaches:



In fact, Mullen is one of only five Power-5 coaching hires (of 132 total, 121 who have completed a bump class) since 2005 to see recruiting rankings decline in his first three cycles.

• Jerry Kill – Minnesota (2011-2013): 57, 59, and 67
• Kyle Flood – Rutgers (2012-2014): 23, 48, and 56
• Derek Dooley – Tennessee (2010-2012): 7, 14 and 19
• Derek Mason – Vanderbilt (2014-2016): 46, 49 and 54
• Dan Mullen – Mississippi State (2009-2011): 18, 30 and 41

Mullens 3rd class at state fell to 41 despite winning 9 games

Texas, Tennessee, and Washington have all had great recruiting despite not winning much at first under Herman, Jones and Sarkisian at the time.

Mullen has a 2% chance of getting a great bump class his 3rd year joining Dabo, SOS and Richt.

The Cali strategy is a not a good strategy.

Comparing Mullen to meyer doesn't work because Meyer had rosters built that includes 63% & 65% instate players and landed 10 top 25 FL players.
Bill Sikes: The 5-star nerd breaks down the current state of Gators recruiting - Read and Reaction

 

[MJMGator]

That’s some deep seated hate.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

That’s some reality there

Mullinz recruiting poorly isn't really a suprise to anyone who paid attention

 

[GR8 2B]

2 coaches have won the SEC after year 3: Tuberville and Fat Phil

Does Fat Phil = Fulmer?

 

[Theologator]

Does Fat Phil = Fulmer?

Yes.

Please note:

Same dashing figure

Same dopey expression

No one has EVER seen Fulmer and The Grimace in the same room at the same time.

 

[GR8 2B]

Fat Phil last won the SEC in 1998. He hasn't won squat since 2005.

 

[Omar's Coming Yo!]

That’s some deep seated hate.

Wrong. Just the facts.

 

[oxrageous]

Wrong. Just the facts.

Well, no reason to even play the season then.

Why are you so invested in us being horrible?

 

[Omar's Coming Yo!]

Well, no reason to even play the season then.

Why are you so invested in us being horrible?

Im not. The UF athletic dept is. Blame them for this mess.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

The writer in this case did not seem to consider at all that the better your transition class the harder it is for you bump class to be a big improvement. Partly this is an artifact of numbers, but it also is probably due to a good transition class partly takes away the recruiting pitch that you have lots of playing time available.

 

[Theologator]

The writer in this case did not seem to consider at all that the better your transition class the harder it is for you bump class to be a big improvement. Partly this is an artifact of numbers, but it also is probably due to a good transition class partly takes away the recruiting pitch that you have lots of playing time available.

Reaching a goal is hard. Sustaining success over time is much harder. Once you’re in that top 5-10 consistently it’s more a matter of balance, reloading & finding those special players that gel in your system.

 

[deuce]

More useless info to cloud the picture. Play the season and see what happens...

 

[Mr.Breeze]

Since 2005, there have been 132 Power-5 conference head coaching hires, including 11 who – similar to Mullen – have yet to coach a game. I examined multiple metrics from each coach’s first three seasons to hopefully paint a complete picture about what is historically necessary to win nationally and in the SEC. The metrics included were the following:

• Win/loss record during the year prior to the coach’s arrival
• Win/loss record for each coach’s first three years at the program
• Eight different recruiting metrics for each of their first three recruiting classes

2 coaches have won the SEC after year 3: Tuberville and Fat Phil
79% of New hires see a increase in recruiting ranking in bump class.

This percentage is actually a little higher in the SEC, as second classes rose only 6 spots on average – from roughly 24th to 18th – but represent an improvement of 25 percent (since 1st and 2nd year classes are ranked higher in the SEC than the national average). Based on this, a reasonable expectation for Mullen’s transition class would be a finish of 10th or 11th, as a 25 percent improvement would be 10.5.

Of course, that does ignore Gators history, as previous UF coaches since Steve Spurrier have seen their classes improve by 9 spots, from 13.5 to 4.5, an improvement of 67 percent. If Mullen were to maintain this average, his 2019 class would finish with a national ranking of 4th or 5th.

While it might seem counterintuitive that a coach would need help from his second recruiting class to win an early championship, that’s exactly what happened with the following bump class-additions:

• Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin from Urban Meyer’s 2006 class at Florida
• Cam Newton from Gene Chizik’s 2010 class at Auburn
• Mark Ingraham from Nick Saban’s 2008 class at Alabama
• Jake Fromm from Kirby Smart’s 2017 class at Georgia

Also, if you’re counting at home, that’s 3 Heisman trophy winners acquired in the bump classes of the last 6 SEC championship-winning coach hires. So yeah, the bump class is a little important. But just how good were the bump classes of these guys? Well, the aforementioned future SEC champion coaches acquired bump classes that averaged:

Additionally, the 6 future SEC Championship coaches hired since 2005 saw the following during their bump class:

• An increase of 8.2 spots in the national rankings
• An increase 2.3 spots in the conference rankings
• An average of 2.3 5-star recruits
• An average national ranking of 4.7
• An average conference ranking of 2.3
• An average of 16.8 blue-chips (4 or 5-star recruits) in the class

Mullen is a great transition class recruiter but falters in bump class joining some pretty bad coaches:



In fact, Mullen is one of only five Power-5 coaching hires (of 132 total, 121 who have completed a bump class) since 2005 to see recruiting rankings decline in his first three cycles.

• Jerry Kill – Minnesota (2011-2013): 57, 59, and 67
• Kyle Flood – Rutgers (2012-2014): 23, 48, and 56
• Derek Dooley – Tennessee (2010-2012): 7, 14 and 19
• Derek Mason – Vanderbilt (2014-2016): 46, 49 and 54
• Dan Mullen – Mississippi State (2009-2011): 18, 30 and 41

Mullens 3rd class at state fell to 41 despite winning 9 games

Texas, Tennessee, and Washington have all had great recruiting despite not winning much at first under Herman, Jones and Sarkisian at the time.

Mullen has a 2% chance of getting a great bump class his 3rd year joining Dabo, SOS and Richt.

The Cali strategy is a not a good strategy.

Comparing Mullen to meyer doesn't work because Meyer had rosters built that includes 63% & 65% instate players and landed 10 top 25 FL players.
Bill Sikes: The 5-star nerd breaks down the current state of Gators recruiting - Read and Reaction

Wow, your fingers must be sore

You fail to acknowledge that Mullen established these stats, in the most undesirable university (little brother to Ole Miss), in an undesirable town, in arguably the most undesirable state in the country, playing in the toughest division in the toughest conference in all of college football.

I’m not going to the trouble to look it up, but I’ll wager 100 internet dollars that Franklin wasn’t significantly more impressive in his first years at Vandy, and Nashville seriously trumps Starkville in every possible way imaginable, including a straight-up comparison of the universities - in a comparatively weaker division.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

The writer in this case did not seem to consider at all that the better your transition class.

Youre silly. Did you.actually read it? He covered exacrly that with a coiple of the people who had top 10 transition classes.

He also did some stuff earlier saying to compete in your conference you basically have to be top 3 in recruiting, and even that is marginal. MOST of the time the team that recruits best wins.

Mullinz was 7th in SEC and will be worse this year. We are currently 11th.

You can say Mullinz record doesnt matter bc he will do better w Florida talent, Ive been told. What do you expect, if he actually continues to bring home less than Cowbell talent?

 

[SeabeeGator]

Youre silly. Did you.actually read it? He covered exacrly that with a coiple of the people who had top 10 transition classes.

He also did some stuff earlier saying to compete in your conference you basically have to be top 3 in recruiting, and even that is marginal. MOST of the time the team that recruits best wins.

Mullinz was 7th in SEC and will be worse this year. We are currently 11th.

You can say Mullinz record doesnt matter bc he will do better w Florida talent, Ive been told. What do you expect, if he actually continues to bring home less than Cowbell talent?

You have no patience. Just wait, August is going to be yuge!

 

[InstiGATOR1]

Reaching a goal is hard. Sustaining success over time is much harder. Once you’re in that top 5-10 consistently it’s more a matter of balance, reloading & finding those special players that gel in your system.

I think once you get it going there can be some momentum at least for a while. I think it is surprisingly non-transferable, as in Bielema seemingly had it going at Wisconsin, but could not transfer that to UAR.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

I think once you get it going there can be some momentum at least for a while. I think it is surprisingly non-transferable, as in Bielema seemingly had it going at Wisconsin, but could not transfer that to UAR.

Yeah... he was amazingly bad at Arky.

 

[jaywalker72]

People are working extra hard to make that crystal ball work perfectly for them. There is a lot to consider when weighing the recruiting at UF today. Things such as still trailing in the amenities dept, almost of decade of mediocrity or worse on the field, especially offensively, the change in the conference balance of power and, also, state competition. There is a ton of rot to rebuild, and we have been asleep for too long.

This is an unique situation for this university, for this century, at least, due to the failings of the past decade, so I am not surprised things are not immediately shaping up.

Why don't we stop pretending we know what's going to happen, step back off the ledge (for now) and see if the program can stop the bleeding/sliding and start to trend in the right direction by the end of the season?

 

[InstiGATOR1]

Youre silly. Did you.actually read it? He covered exacrly that with a coiple of the people who had top 10 transition classes.

I not only read what was posted, but read the entire thing at the link. He did talk about high ranked transition classes. I did not see him make the link to high ranked transition classes affecting the bump class, but maybe I missed it. I looked for it when he talked about the top transition classes and I did not read it as him recognizing that issue.

 

[Gator Fever]

I think once you get it going there can be some momentum at least for a while. I think it is surprisingly non-transferable, as in Bielema seemingly had it going at Wisconsin, but could not transfer that to UAR.

And yet he out recruited Mullen 3 out of 5 years.