Hurricane Florence

Discussion in 'The Lounge' started by secgator, Sep 10, 2018.

  1. Tilly

    Tilly 40K posts on UF boards. A legend in my own mind.

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    11 pm...Now down to a Category 2. This is good news.
     
  2. secgator

    secgator Well-Known Member

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    Stay safe tilly.
     
    • itsgr82bag8r

      itsgr82bag8r Political Forum Fire Starter
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      Hurricane Ivan, in the Gulf of Mexico back in 2004, had measured wave heights to 90 feet.

      https://phys.org/news/2005-08-hurricane-ivan.html
       
    • NVGator

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      It’s coming right for you. Looks like it will be a Cat1 when it hits. Stay safe.
       
      • Flgator2

        Flgator2 Active Member
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        My buddy and family also are staying put. You guys stay safe
         
        • secgator

          secgator Well-Known Member

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          I live in Pensacola and took direct hit from Ivan. I hadn't heard Ivan generated those kinds of waves....but then during the build up to the storm I stayed pretty busy and missed a lot of info like that.;)

          As a side note, we were without power for almost 4 weeks. No cable or phone(landline back then) for 6 weeks. Needless to say, Ivan was a nightmare experience I wouldn't wish on anyone. Ever.
           
        • g8tr72

          g8tr72 Well-Known Member

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          USCe cancels their home game Saturday.
           
        • g8tr72

          g8tr72 Well-Known Member

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          Best wishes to you all with prayers for safety.

          Watching some of the detailed forecasts, the big issue seems to be the rain and surge. Hope your property can withstand what's coming without damage.
           
          • Theologator

            Theologator Enchanter

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            Hysterical reporting is routine and thus loses its punch. I just read the latest AP article and, in just a few sentences, it at once hypes the dangers of Florence while the actual news is it has dropped from a Cat 4 to Cat 2 and is likely to be a Cat 1 at landfall.

            Bad, but what will they have to say about a Cat 3, 4, 5? “You’re all going to die!”
             
            • itsgr82bag8r

              itsgr82bag8r Political Forum Fire Starter
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              I lost my home to Ivan. (Surge & wind) So, trust me, I understand what you’re saying.
               
            • secgator

              secgator Well-Known Member

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              No doubt the networks....TWC included....definitely hype the living crap out of just about every storm, and lots of times the storm does downgrade(thankfully) prior to landfall. I wish they would be much more honest & prudent about the seriousness without all their hyperbole and ratings driven adjectives.

              Having said that---most outlets should err on the side of overemphasizing the severity of a storm. It's better to hard play it and the storm turn out less, than to be overly reserved and have more casualties than necessary. There has to be a happy/accurate medium but(again, for ratings) the news agencies don't practice that. For those who've never been through one, it doesn't really matter whether it's a Cat 1 or Cat 3 or etc....a Cat 1 can really screw up your life depending on the circumstance so they should be taken very seriously. When the media announces a storm downgrades from a 4 to a 2, ignorant people tend to think "whew, we should have stayed" or get pissed off they were mislead. That's either stupid or extremely naive---you can lose everything(or die) in a 1 just about as easy as in a 3---just not prudent to take the ratings as a true measurement. I think they should do away with the numbers and simply call the storms--bad, worse, and worst. A minor hurricane can still kill you.

              FWIW....just found this on a WX forum which is comprised of REAL meteorologists(not tv weather announcers), the serious technical folks who actually do know what they're talking about in terms of facts-not hyperbole.....and the apparent downgrading may not be the final action of Florence. It can still begin growing and intensifying before landfall so people need to ignore what the network morning shows are telling them.

              "looking at satellite, Florence appears to be strengthening and in best shape over past 24 hrs. Outflow is healthy in all quadrants, good symmetry and, blossoming of deep convection within CDO. All that said, as I mentioned yesterday Florence appears to be translating most/all of his intensification into greater size, which acts to impede potential increases in windspeed/SLP as the circulation is broadening much more than tightening."

              This was from a meteorologist in New Hampshire posted at 8:30 am today. In other words, the eye--which had been deteriorating, is rebuilding and could be in the Rapid Intensification mode again. It's windfield IS expanding--that has already been ongoing for awhile. If intensity begins to grow--then it could become a stronger storm again, just like it was. This is not going to be an 'easier' storm regardless what some people are thinking when they see it go from Cat 3 to Cat 2.
               
              • g8tr72

                g8tr72 Well-Known Member

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              • g8tr72

                g8tr72 Well-Known Member

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                The whole "err on the side of caution" appears to always be at play in these situations.

                Last thing that government officials want to have to do is answer the "Why didn't you________?" question.

                It'd be a terrible experience to have most of your population sitting in a slow moving traffic jam while the hurricane makes landfall because you underestimated, rather than overestimated, the size and severity of a storm.

                Meteorology is far from an exact science, and the TV personalities aren't really that helpful.
                 
                • itsgr82bag8r

                  itsgr82bag8r Political Forum Fire Starter
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                  Wait, I’m almost positive I’ve heard it was settled science......
                   
                • itsgr82bag8r

                  itsgr82bag8r Political Forum Fire Starter
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                  BTW, speaking from 1st hand experience, just because a storm downgrades wind speed right before landfall has zero bearing on already accumulated water pushed in front of the storm when it was stronger & pressure lower. Ivan went from Cat 5 to Cat 3 in the hours before landfall but the storm surge was still as high as it would’ve been as a Cat 5.
                   
                  • secgator

                    secgator Well-Known Member

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                    A couple of cool cams.....one from the Frying Pan rig off North Carolina.



                    This one is an underwater shark cam, I presume from the same rig--not sure. Fish are swimming by as usual, although sometimes debris or something comes zipping by I guess due to turbulence--and rather fast. Never know what will come by today.

                     
                    • secgator

                      secgator Well-Known Member

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                      They're starting to feel the effects coming onshore now. Should be a long day for those folks.
                      [​IMG]
                       
                    • secgator

                      secgator Well-Known Member

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                    • Theologator

                      Theologator Enchanter

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                      I appreciated your whole post, thanks.

                      A legitimate piece of this is that too many people don’t think preparation through properly and are desensitized by hyperbolic rhetoric in all things. So hyping the warnings is necessary yet perpetuates the problem.
                       
                      • secgator

                        secgator Well-Known Member

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                        Couldn't agree more. You summarized it much better than I did....you wrote Reader's Digest while I wrote War and Peace.:fistbump:
                         

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