Impeachment talk and the Markets

Discussion in 'Business, Investing & Finance' started by FireFoley, Sep 24, 2019.

  1. FireFoley

    FireFoley Senior Member
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    I wanted to take the politics out of the impeachment talks and discuss how it could affect the markets.For those of us who follow the markets closely and are always looking for opportunities, this is the kind of thing that might open the door. I have no idea if there will be any effect on the markets or any added volatility, but the beauty of this is that it is officially on the menu, so we know about it and it gives us all a chance to prepare. Whether you are interested in equities, fixed income, Commodities, etc., we all have time to ready our plans and be ready to react shall we get a roller coaster ride. I know I always have a list of stocks that I am interested in but feel are over priced, so maybe I will get a chance. Perhaps you own a lot of fixed income and there is a rush into treasurys driving yields lower? Maybe you can sell at a nice profit as opposed to holding on and collecting paltry sized interest payments. Maybe this effects the trade talk with China which might cause moves in oil, gold, copper etc. Whatever comes of this, the fact that the genie is officially out of the bottle gives a chance to get our ducks in a row. Perhaps it turns into a yawn, but for those who are always looking for opportunities this might open up the doors for us. Stay alert b/c no one cares more about your money than you do!
     
    • Politigator

      Politigator L-boy's Cousin
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      There isn't much evidence that anybody, much less individual investors, can consistently out smart the markets with publicly available information. What would make you think your information is superior to everyone else's?
       
    • FireFoley

      FireFoley Senior Member
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      If you are asking if my info regarding the potential impeachment talk is superior, it is not. I know what the blowhards tell me. Are you asking if my investment info is superior? it is not. What I am saying is that I always have a plan, whether it turns out to be right or wrong is to be determined. All I was saying was that sometimes these out of the box events allow for things to happen and for people to capture certain investments that have evaded them previously. I don;t invest personally in funds due to the higher fees and I want to do better than average. I have been lucky to have done reasonably well but it certainly does not mean I have not had more than my share of losers. I have. but over time I think with the correct research,. a plan and good discipline, you can outdo the overall averages. I firmly believe that you can't time the markets, but you can time your buys and sells, instead of just investing blindly same time, same month or same year. I am certainly not judging anyone's personal choices, I was only trying to bring up the possibility of some added volatility that might allow opportunity that we were not counting on.
       
      • 78

        78 Dazed and Confused
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        Any dip in the market is a potential buying opportunity, but non-systemic dips are generally short-lived and very difficult to time for the very reason L-boy pointed out.

        The market at any given moment is impacted by tens of millions of transactions. Twenty years ago the market was efficient. Today, it is hyper-efficient based on information technology. The speed of information impacting the market has never been more swift. You cannot preempt the market without insider trading knowledge.

        You have but one choice. Go back to basics. Investment objective, time horizon, risk tolerance.
         
        • Concrete Helmet

          Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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          I was afraid yesterday.....today I am not. :lol:
          I used to listen what the stock market was doing when I had a chance but until recently I have never managed my own investments(stocks) except RE and some CD's....Now I catch myself looking in 4 or 5 times a day and wonder if the whole thing isn't manipulated by a bunch of millennial day traders looking at their Apple newsfeed on their phones for up to the minute headlines....ffs
           
          • Politigator

            Politigator L-boy's Cousin
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            I'm glad you've done well. And yes everybody should have a plan, but I don't think trying to time in and outs based upon dips is a plan. How do you define a dip? Once a dip.has happened, whose to say it won't fall farther?

            As a general rule I think you pick an asset allocation and stick with it. Rebalance as necessary. Index or target date funds help rebalance for you.

            If you stick to index funds and a few very low fee funds fund fees will be inconsequential.

            Now having said all that, I'd be lying if I hadn't bought on some dips and timed a few ins and outs. But the net amounts were pretty inconsequential. I occasionally modestly vary allocations based upon market conditions. In some instances it has helped (2000). Others it hurt (2008).

            At this point if I make modest variations it is more about mitigating downside risk vs trying to beat the market.
             
          • URGatorBait

            URGatorBait #TeamDubs
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            I am not taking what FireFoley said as trying to necessarily perfectly timing the market.

            What I am getting from him is that events like this, or even the threat of, can cause movement in the markets.

            Because of that, it is wise to have a plan on points you are interested in, because events that cause market disruption could cause the investment you are eyeing to come into a level you (general you) will be more interested in making a purchase at. I think that's all he means by timing your buys.
             
          • Concrete Helmet

            Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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            I think as a general rule this is pretty sound and is what I'm doing outside of my IRA and PSP which are controlled by a financial advisor. That said if someone has the time to research and scrutinize different stocks and bond they will probably end up getting a larger return,
             
          • FireFoley

            FireFoley Senior Member
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            Thanx @URGatorBait . You explained better than I did. Maybe I should have used "Throws out baby with bathwater" analogy.
             
            • URGatorBait

              URGatorBait #TeamDubs
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              :fistbump:
               
            • Politigator

              Politigator L-boy's Cousin
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              I assume if you are an individual stock picker that picks based upon fundamentals it makes sense, but there is little evidence individual stock pickers can beat the market. By definition on average they can't beat the market.
               
            • URGatorBait

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              Again, He isn't trying to beat the market as a whole.
              He is simply saying, be on the look out for stocks you are interested in at a price you might be willing to buy them.
              It's what everyone does, or tries to do all the time anyway, he is simply saying an event like this could be a time when what one is looking for, occurs.
              There really isn't anything more to what he said lol
               
            • FireFoley

              FireFoley Senior Member
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              For the record, IMO, these tame sell offs we are currently having have zero to do with impeachment talks. I have decided that no one cares about impeachment in the country and feel like Prez Tweeter will probably join the ranks of Andrew Johnson and Slick WiLLLLLLLie Clinton as impeached prezzes who stayed in office. But I do believe these tame sell offs are economic induced as people are finally worried about the U,S. b/c the world is in a recession. I am in this camp, but am hoping for much more. Rates are not really scurrying to the downside, so I don;t sense panic. I am more income driven in my investments so usually the stuff I am interested in is the last stuff to be sold off. I am kicking myself b/c I was watching McCormick (MKC, yes the spice maker) and that damn stock was 120 7 months ago and hit 170 yesterday. I blew it, but there are opportunities like that that pay good dividends and are outside crazy tech areas. But if the slowdown does come to fruition, some stocks I like may reach 6-7 % dividends and even if they remain stable, I am okay with that type of return.

              But to repeat, the impeachment BS has /is having no effect on the markets. No one cares, LOL
               
              • Gator By Marriage

                Gator By Marriage A convert to Gatorism
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                Sort of off topic but, in my first job out of college I worked for an industrial packaging firm and McCormick was a customer of ours. Initially I only went to the plant at their then headquarters near downtown Baltimore. Like many manufacturing or processing plants built in that era (it was an older plant) as soon as you got near the place you could smell it. Unlike most plants however it was a really good smell. Since it was a mix of so many spices, you couldn't really figure out which ones were dominant no matter how hard you tried. Later they moved all their operations to a modern plant in Hunt Valley north of town that clearly had some kind of filters to eliminate the smell. I sure the neighbors appreciated it, but I was always nostalgic for the old place.
                 
              • Concrete Helmet

                Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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                Yes and no.... I think the younger generation is easily moved by headlines although that's not to blame the last couple of weeks entirely on them. Yes there certainly does seem to be worldwide downturn(recession) in general which compounded by a drop in manu. report for the 2nd straight month I guess are also on some investors minds....GM strike probably isn't helping either.....Christ at this point I might be better off dumping some of the rest of my lump sum I recently got into the add on retirement 3%CD I took out a while back.:banghead:
                 
              • 78

                78 Dazed and Confused
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                When money flows out of stocks it has to rotate somewhere.

                Flight to safety.

                Nothing epitomizes safety better than treasurys (yes, that's the correct spelling). Combined with an accomodative Fed, longer duration treasurys are outperforming.

                What's happening in the market has more to do with the global economy and cracks seen in the US consumer than the impeachment proceeding.
                 
              • Concrete Helmet

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                I don't want to get political in here but we have 2 huge trade deals on the table, N. American and China and Dems have done NOTHING with their congress to approve the N.A one and have lowered our Presidents position with China now with impeachment talks...may every damned one of them rot in hell......the party of do nothing.
                 
                • Politigator

                  Politigator L-boy's Cousin
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                  TPP would have been good for American business but it was **** canned day 1 of the current administration.
                   
                • ChiefGator

                  ChiefGator A Chief and a Gator, Master of the Ignore list!!!!

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                  TPP would have been good for China, fair for us, and even your Hillary was opposed to it.
                   

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