Inflation Duration

BMF

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I heard an economist this morning on a radio show say something along the lines of, "We are in a recession right now...we've been in a recession. Many times we don't realize we're in a recession until we start to come out of it." Then she went on to explain - and it made sense. I asked, I think in the fuel prices thread (on the politics board), 'how are we not in a recession right now' - and it was explained that it's defined as 'two consecutive quarters'. But with the stock market, rising interest rates, inflation, and fuel costs....ummm, yeah, we're in a recession right now!
 

soflagator

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I heard an economist this morning on a radio show say something along the lines of, "We are in a recession right now...we've been in a recession. Many times we don't realize we're in a recession until we start to come out of it." Then she went on to explain - and it made sense. I asked, I think in the fuel prices thread (on the politics board), 'how are we not in a recession right now' - and it was explained that it's defined as 'two consecutive quarters'. But with the stock market, rising interest rates, inflation, and fuel costs....ummm, yeah, we're in a recession right now!

We were pacing one before Covid. Covid, in a lot of respects, bailed things out or at least kicked the can. But even in 2019, many economists felt that ‘20 would be the year. All Covid and the subsequent spending did was delay the inevitable, worsen the impact and likely stretch it out even further. It would’ve been manageable before. It’s yet to be seen whether this mutation will be.
 

BMF

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We were pacing one before Covid. Covid, in a lot of respects, bailed things out or at least kicked the can. But even in 2019, many economists felt that ‘20 would be the year. All Covid and the subsequent spending did was delay the inevitable, worsen the impact and likely stretch it out even further. It would’ve been manageable before. It’s yet to be seen whether this mutation will be.

I was going to buy a rental property in 2019 - in the Englewood, FL area - for around $225-$250k. We looked at about 12 properties w/ a realtor and most of the houses in that price range were (seemingly) over priced or not what we expected. We concluded we'd hold off as a lot of people were talking about another housing bubble. Then....covid. And real estate prices went through the roof. smh If we had bought a house in 2019 for $250k we likely could have sold it for $400k or more in 2021/22.
 

Bernardo de la Paz

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Refining capacity is part of it. Still below pre-Covid production, so gas inventories are not where they need to be.
Not just total capacity either. The refineries need to be tuned to the type of oil they are refining. They can't just flip a switch and replace the light shale they were getting a couple of years ago with the heavy crude we import.
 

soflagator

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Not just total capacity either. The refineries need to be tuned to the type of oil they are refining. They can't just flip a switch and replace the light shale they were getting a couple of years ago with the heavy crude we import.

Correct.
 

abefroman

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Fed funds rate needs to eventually surge beyond 18% for a healthy rebound, protect yourselves long-term fellas
 

Detroitgator

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I could feel the difference in weight the second I picked it off the shelf ... Et tu, Speed Stick?!?!?!?!?
 

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Concrete Helmet

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Were beyond being in a recession...were actually entering stagflation as inventories pile up and disposable incomes are plummeting to near all time lows. With the gap created in higher prices coupled with less DI and the highest level of debt on a revolving basis EVER and savings rates now depleted to almost all time lows there will be no choice but for retailers and large corps to move to liquidation(homebuilders are getting close and in my opinion will be there within 2-4 months.....

What this means is there won't be enough earnings or available short term corporate financing to fuel the economy OR the stock market, OR the bond market and housing is literally the end of this summer away from A MAJOR crash....In fact we may enter a period over the next 5-10 years of ZERO returns in the stock market....

There is only 2 ways out of this. A complete reversal of energy policies which along with conventional "tightening" but some say that window has already closed and I agree. It's not what the Fed is doing is wrong.....it's just 10-12 months too late and unsustainable for more than a few months at a time without risking utter destruction. The current leadership is blind to this concept and refuses to set their self interest aside.

The other is to keep up tightening through the summer months and let demand dry up(energy).....then go back to ZERO percent interest rates quickly before the 4th quarter to salvage the housing market as 70% of most Americans have the majority of their "wealth" in their home or Real estate. This would help prime major retailers for the holiday season.....it will be years before the stock market corrects itself and sustain any real growth but it would be the best plan available for everyone. Then return to tightening in the next year leading up to summer.....rinse and repeat.
 
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Egor's Assistant

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BMF

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How much will the Social Security raise be this year? It's based off of the current quarter. I saw the 'senior citizens league" or some similar organization predicted 10.5% (but I'm sure the biden admin will fudge the numbers and somehow get it down under 9%). I'm curious because my VA disability goes up the same amount. $$$
 

Concrete Helmet

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I'm curious because my VA disability goes up the same amount. $$$
Disability!!! For what ? You were in the Coast Guard for Christ sakes.....did you throw your shoulder out pull starting the 5HP outboard motor on the back of an inflatable dingy or something? :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl: I've never seen one person in my life collect more free government money than you........j/k
 

BMF

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Disability!!! For what ? You were in the Coast Guard for Christ sakes.....did you throw your shoulder out pull starting the 5HP outboard motor on the back of an inflatable dingy or something? :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl: I've never seen one person in my life collect more free government money than you........j/k

I got old. I did parts of 31 years (between active duty & reserve). I deployed twice to the desert (GW1 & GW2) - I was also a Navy Corpsman for 12+ years, and a FMF Corpsman. I make no apologies to anyone about my service - joking or not. I gladly cash that $3613 (tax free) check every month from the VA (it's actually direct deposited) and my O4 pension.....(and my 18 year fire department pension!) lol (and I went over 16 years as a federal employee in May with the military time I bought back). "Free government money"? Nah, it was earned. And what's great about it is - any hard working American can do the same exact thing! I have buddies who are District Chief's on the FD (they'll get at least a $125k pension, plus the DROP money - which I didn't get since I left the FD early) and are also O5's in the reserves (so they'll get a reserve pension and a VA disability). Yes, it's a scam....but a legal one!
 

FireFoley

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@BMF, don;t pay any attention to Crete. BTW do you still have any of that TBLT stock you mentioned long ago? That SOB is having t=a mother of a short squeeze.
 

BMF

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@BMF, don;t pay any attention to Crete. BTW do you still have any of that TBLT stock you mentioned long ago? That SOB is having t=a mother of a short squeeze.

I sold off tblt a while ago. I made a pretty big profit on it initially, then bought more and took a "mild" loss. Overall I made out up about 12%. But had I not bought back in? 40+%. Lessons learned.....
 

URGatorBait

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How much will the Social Security raise be this year? It's based off of the current quarter. I saw the 'senior citizens league" or some similar organization predicted 10.5% (but I'm sure the biden admin will fudge the numbers and somehow get it down under 9%). I'm curious because my VA disability goes up the same amount. $$$
well here's hoping it's only like 2% :stirpot:


:lol:
 

FireFoley

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This is a pretty good article talking in simple terms about real inflation. Even though I say CPI is most important b/c it includes Energy and Food, which is an everyday type purchase, the talking heads always like to tout Core CPI, which is EX Food and Energy.

 

Concrete Helmet

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It more than likely has peaked since were past the halfway point of summer(travel and travel related purchases and services typically go to nil in mid August), fuel for travel will decrease, dining hits rock bottom mid August through October, auto and home sales hit seasonal low cycles, pools and sun rooms are already built, people are back at work and school meaning less free time to piss money away....

In fact if I were the Fed I wouldn't do anything until next month to get a better read on where were at inflationwise.

The REAL concern is how long the bleed out last...
 

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