- Sep 8, 2014
- 487
- 1,297
I know the comment has been made many times that betting odds are one of the best projectors given it has real money behind it.
So, given all of the talk about expectations for next year, I thought it might be interesting to do some real quick digging and see what betters think. It's hard to get lines for actual games, but the futures allow us to see big picture how Vegas and those betting think the season will play out.
Here are the odds for winning the national championship (form VegasInsider.com):
ODDS TO WIN 2018-19 COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (1/7/19)
Team Odds
Alabama 12/5
Clemson 6/1
Georgia 15/2
Ohio State 15/2
Michigan 14/1
Penn State 20/1
Auburn 25/1
Miami, Fl. 25/1
Oklahoma 25/1
Washington 25/1
Wisconsin 25/1
Florida State 28/1
LSU 33/1
Michigan State 33/1
Notre Dame 33/1
Texas 33/1
USC 40/1
Florida 50/1
Stanford 50/1
Virginia Tech 50/1
West Virginia 50/1
Texas A&M 66/1
Oklahoma State 100/1
Oregon 100/1
TCU 100/1
UCF 100/1
Nebraska 150/1
Texas Tech 150/1
UCLA 150/1
Rutgers 500/1
As you can see, we are ranked 18th (tied with three other teams which implies it really is somewhere between 18 and 21).
An interesting takeaway here is that we are projected as the second most likely in the East. Everybody else is off the board, so that would imply we are clearly the only team other than Georgia that betters think could somehow get to the title game this year. Obviously, we are still a longshot, but interesting nonetheless.
Another thing to think about is how volatility plays in to this. This bet is really only focused on the upside (getting to and winning the title game), and doesn't really care about any other result (so finishing the year in the Top 5 result in the same payout as finishing the season unranked --- nothing). We are getting most of our odds on the chance that things really click and Mullen takes the talent that is there and does what McElwain couldn't even dream of (nor would he try as evident by the way he ran the program). So, you can't read too much into this because it doesn't imply that a 6-6 type record isn't also reasonably likely, just that an 11-1 or so regular season in which we get into Atlanta, win, and make the playoffs is possible (and not even a completely crazy scenario given the 50-1 implies somewhere around 2%, but is capturing our odds to WIN the title, not just make the playoffs, implying our odds to make the playoffs are actually much better than the 2%). Therefore, those putting money down (and those making the odds to begin with) see a pretty high POTENTIAL upside from this team, but could also see a very low potential downside that simply wouldn't be captured by this measure.
OK, moving on to odds to win the SEC:
ODDS TO WIN 2018 SEC CHAMPIONSHIP (12/1/18)
Team Odds
Alabama 4/5
Georgia 7/2
Auburn 8/1
Mississippi State 12/1
Florida 16/1
LSU 20/1
Texas A&M 20/1
South Carolina 25/1
Missouri 33/1
Tennessee 50/1
Arkansas 66/1
Ole Miss 66/1
Kentucky 100/1
Vanderbilt 100/1
Now we begin to see something a bit more like we would expect based on discussion around here. The West is crazy crowded, so the fact we were so high on the National Champ odds was partly driven by the fact that Georgia is the clear favorite and we just happen to get decent odds as the only team they think might be capable of beating them, winning the East, and running a good enough record to have a shot at the playoffs.
Here we can see that sports gamblers expect even Miss St to be significantly better than us given their odds are better despite having to go through a tougher division. Realistically, they are likely implying that LSU and A&M are projected to be better teams as well, but their odds are just hurt by being in the division with Bama, Auburn, Miss St, each other, etc.
Anyways, I'm curious to see what everybody else thinks about the odds. Any action you would want to get in on? Are Vegas betters falling too far in to the "pumper" camp and need to be shown just how big of a mess we really are?
As was once said by someone at some point along the way...Discuss!
So, given all of the talk about expectations for next year, I thought it might be interesting to do some real quick digging and see what betters think. It's hard to get lines for actual games, but the futures allow us to see big picture how Vegas and those betting think the season will play out.
Here are the odds for winning the national championship (form VegasInsider.com):
ODDS TO WIN 2018-19 COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (1/7/19)
Team Odds
Alabama 12/5
Clemson 6/1
Georgia 15/2
Ohio State 15/2
Michigan 14/1
Penn State 20/1
Auburn 25/1
Miami, Fl. 25/1
Oklahoma 25/1
Washington 25/1
Wisconsin 25/1
Florida State 28/1
LSU 33/1
Michigan State 33/1
Notre Dame 33/1
Texas 33/1
USC 40/1
Florida 50/1
Stanford 50/1
Virginia Tech 50/1
West Virginia 50/1
Texas A&M 66/1
Oklahoma State 100/1
Oregon 100/1
TCU 100/1
UCF 100/1
Nebraska 150/1
Texas Tech 150/1
UCLA 150/1
Rutgers 500/1
As you can see, we are ranked 18th (tied with three other teams which implies it really is somewhere between 18 and 21).
An interesting takeaway here is that we are projected as the second most likely in the East. Everybody else is off the board, so that would imply we are clearly the only team other than Georgia that betters think could somehow get to the title game this year. Obviously, we are still a longshot, but interesting nonetheless.
Another thing to think about is how volatility plays in to this. This bet is really only focused on the upside (getting to and winning the title game), and doesn't really care about any other result (so finishing the year in the Top 5 result in the same payout as finishing the season unranked --- nothing). We are getting most of our odds on the chance that things really click and Mullen takes the talent that is there and does what McElwain couldn't even dream of (nor would he try as evident by the way he ran the program). So, you can't read too much into this because it doesn't imply that a 6-6 type record isn't also reasonably likely, just that an 11-1 or so regular season in which we get into Atlanta, win, and make the playoffs is possible (and not even a completely crazy scenario given the 50-1 implies somewhere around 2%, but is capturing our odds to WIN the title, not just make the playoffs, implying our odds to make the playoffs are actually much better than the 2%). Therefore, those putting money down (and those making the odds to begin with) see a pretty high POTENTIAL upside from this team, but could also see a very low potential downside that simply wouldn't be captured by this measure.
OK, moving on to odds to win the SEC:
ODDS TO WIN 2018 SEC CHAMPIONSHIP (12/1/18)
Team Odds
Alabama 4/5
Georgia 7/2
Auburn 8/1
Mississippi State 12/1
Florida 16/1
LSU 20/1
Texas A&M 20/1
South Carolina 25/1
Missouri 33/1
Tennessee 50/1
Arkansas 66/1
Ole Miss 66/1
Kentucky 100/1
Vanderbilt 100/1
Now we begin to see something a bit more like we would expect based on discussion around here. The West is crazy crowded, so the fact we were so high on the National Champ odds was partly driven by the fact that Georgia is the clear favorite and we just happen to get decent odds as the only team they think might be capable of beating them, winning the East, and running a good enough record to have a shot at the playoffs.
Here we can see that sports gamblers expect even Miss St to be significantly better than us given their odds are better despite having to go through a tougher division. Realistically, they are likely implying that LSU and A&M are projected to be better teams as well, but their odds are just hurt by being in the division with Bama, Auburn, Miss St, each other, etc.
Anyways, I'm curious to see what everybody else thinks about the odds. Any action you would want to get in on? Are Vegas betters falling too far in to the "pumper" camp and need to be shown just how big of a mess we really are?
As was once said by someone at some point along the way...Discuss!
