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Discussion in 'Business, Investing & Finance' started by Zambo, Jul 3, 2019.
Just going to leave this here....from RealtyTrac
How about showing the 11 months prior to March 2020, too?
Contact the website and ask them, or you can do it. But you obviously don't understand what it's showing, or what that means. While you're at it, find us some eviction stats as well. Or maybe you're just one of those that has such faith in Biden to navigate this issue.
He's pretty drunk on the Bidenaid....to the moon, baby....never coming back down ...
Yeah, I read the chart as being impacted by the no evictions. i've been lazy and not dug into it, but there has gotta be a pretty big bubble (at least blister) that isn't really showing up in both the commercial and residential markets (especially on a state by state basis) with the no foreclosure/eviction stuff.
I read it as basically this is what the foreclosure bans have created. And honestly, I’m surprised it wasn’t lower, and am curious what states were allowing foreclosures, because Florida was shut off into the fall. There is a latent supply of housing that has been held hostage by government. The backlog is going to take a couple years to cycle through the courts just like a decade ago. the other issue that may hit is contractors going thru bankruptcy. Depending on their mix, there are are buildings getting f’d by fix cost contracts. Not uncommon to hear about a builder losing $20k or much higher on a home right now. Even more pissed off buyers who are finding all the corner cutting. So if they don’t take the full brunt of financial costs, their reputation is getting hit, especially in smaller communities. I know you get it, but a lot of folks don’t understand the 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc ripples from things like this. Way more complicated than what people are thinking.
Pro Tip #4653: Arrogant kvnts use terms like "secondary and tertiary effects"... it sounds more arrogant than what you said.
I have to use that vocabulary on the daily for work. I feel like a pretentious douche when I have to write recommendation memos.
I have a friend here in DC area that signed a contract on a pre-built home in Annandale (suburb in Virginia). It's a 5000sf home and is just an empty lot right now. The builder keeps bs'ing them about not being able to get permits and variances, blaming the city/county. They think he's trying to force them to back out of the contract because he can get more than $100k more now than when they signed (about a year ago). That foreclosure chart is very telling. I saw articles more than two months ago saying the number of people 90 and 120+ days behind on mortgage payments is at a 15+ year high. Something's gotta give and these stimulus foreclosure/eviction protections need to end soon - hopefully by the fall?
This is where I'm at.
Does anyone think the cost of lumber (i.e. new home construction) will come back down anytime soon?
Define.... "soon". Has any hot market/city showed signs of a weakness or slump? I feel like this is going to take years to come down in price. And my instinct tell me it'll never come down to where it was.
Well, it seems to be a supply issue - caused by covid (they shut down operations for a while, then when workers returned it wasn't up and running 100%). So, at some point I imagine production will be at 100% of pre-covid and there will be leveling off of prices. This happens w/ ammo every time a Dem starts talking about gun control (and we're seeing it now, nearly impossible to find ammo - and when you do, it's more expensive than during "normal" times). I was thinking maybe by the fall we'd see prices start to come down for lumber, at least.
I keep hearing it's a supply issue. But you can find anything you want at Home Depot. Last time I was there I asked the guy why in the flying fuch were the 2x4s 8 bucks. He had your same response, "supply issue". I responded with, "you have 10 full pallets of 2x4s crowding the aisles... you have no issues with the product being scarce". I think it's high simply because they can sell it high.
If gubbermint allows crude oil and Pharma to price fix, why not lumber?
There’s going to come a point where builders can’t sell their product. Those who used fixed priced contracts may end up bankrupt. Those that didn’t will have trouble meeting any contractual deadlines. apparently last lumber is not the issue so much as spray foam. So other products like doors are being back ordered with no ETA. Windows are apparently in actual shortage too. Does anyone really think G’ville will see $200/SF beginner homes? Because that’s not too far off the horizon. There’s always a terminal price on things like this.
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