- Dec 31, 2018
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You are an errand boy sent by grocery clerks to collect a bill.You're an errand boy by your own admission, fatso.
You are an errand boy sent by grocery clerks to collect a bill.You're an errand boy by your own admission, fatso.
In your wife's tire you mean?Next time you put a nail in my tire I'm gonna kick your ass....
Total mortgage application(purchase and refi)down 55% since FEB....Fed about to start taper tantrum(raising rates)…..
Oh they'll do everything they can to float the turd along and suck in as many dipsh!ts as possible until the thing is crayon tipping the bowl on the way down...Look at the NASDAQ....It's a one day trader circle jerk going up 100-200 points in the morning and then selling off by the afternoon...the only solid sector over the last 4 months is financials which will tank once all the dipsh!ts who just ran out and overspent on their new 500K house lose their jobs because corporations will see they don't need the overhead when the economy is not recovering....oh and then there is the manipulated commodities market which the Government control through their henchmen(Blackrock,JPM) and the lying ass Fed....smart people aren't buying the ******** CPI numbers either...they fill up at the pump and buy groceries like the rest of us...Until the Fed and gov't allow market forces to work, all of us can only guess what the outcomes will be
The market will crash. There are time cycles to these things. Stocks can crash quickly due to their level of turnover and liquidity. Housing is about as illiquid as you can get.You’ve been predicting housing crash for many months now and couldn’t be more wrong....give it a rest.
You are an errand boy sent by grocery clerks to collect a bill.
It's already starting...I work in the industry and have seen our orders go down 40% over the last 6-8 weeks. Our 2 largest clients (Lenders) are both down over 50% in total mortgage applications including both purchase and refi's....There are already tons of stories out there about how fast housing is falling off after March and save for a few weekly upticks have been trending downward since February.The market will crash.
True, but the prices haven’t started crashing. In fact, I’ve noticed a trend of price increases on Zillow for listings. But yes, things are becoming more evident. Hell, housing starts were cut in half before the stock crash in ‘08. I still think Dec of next year is a reasonable targetIt's already starting...I work in the industry and have seen our orders go down 40% over the last 6-8 weeks. Our 2 largest clients (Lenders) are both down over 50% in total mortgage applications including both purchase and refi's....There are already tons of stories out there about how fast housing is falling off after March and save for a few weekly upticks have been trending downward since February.
But like you are saying these things take time for John Q Public to notice and the Gov. will try and suppress MSM from reporting too much about it...those of us on the inside have a head start on the bad news.
The market will crash. There are time cycles to these things. Stocks can crash quickly due to their level of turnover and liquidity. Housing is about as illiquid as you can get.
the last go around, we saw 2006 as the peak, with 2007 as a ho hum year in housing. In late summer of 2008, the stock market started to go off the ledge. Only took the stocks a few months to bottom out. The housing market in G'ville bottomed out about the end of 2010 give or take a few months. So roughly two years later. Liquid vs. illiquid.
But things aren't equal. In the 2005 run up, it was fueled by crazy structures and fraud. There was an area in Jax, where a great number of people bought homes on ARM's because it was cheaper than rent. Thought they'd be able to sell at a higher price at the rate adj period....nope. People taking out 3 or even 4 mortgages because they were told they could tap into their homes equity. But now it's fueled by low rates and moratoriums on FC's and evictions. Rates can change quickly and I haven't heard anything about the judge ruling against the CDC on moratoriums, so it may stand. FC's in FL will probably take between 12 and 24 months depending on the back log and location.
It takes time, but if you aren't getting out of RE now, there's going to be a period of purgatory, where nothing moves. I do think that the lack of volume compared to 2006 and the ability to affect values quickly through RE adjustments, that this could/should turn quicker than the prior crash. But you'll see the stocks crash first.
Damn the coffee boy just found a fed.tax lien that could have been a potential 60k claim on an investment closing for later today....amazing that his wife trust him enough to do the final update on all title searches that were previously done by a professional abstractor...I think he found somewhere near 2 million in potential claims over the last few years.....I'm such a good coffee boyCrete is apparently only just getting coffee and dry cleaning
Yeah, I think we’re ending up at the same place for the most part, just on different trains.You and I have discussed this before, and big picture I don't think you're wrong. I do still have an inkling, or hope, that it's not to the same degree as '07-'10 or even worse as you suggest, but I also recognize some of you are have boots on the ground in this arena(even if Crete is apparently only just getting coffee and dry cleaning). And as I mentioned last week, any non-essential or investment properties that you're not planning to hold for a minimum 10 years should probably be listed and closed immediately(we just did yesterday). Personally though, I think we see a cooling in prices, likely soon, followed by a cooling in equities appetite(starting already). But given the consumer driven market that we're in now, I think the housing pull back may lead the way, simply because the closest link to consumer confidence is generally confidence in real estate. Seeing and knowing that their homes are appreciating, or at a minimum maintaining value, is psychologically huge for people and trickles to everything else. If we see a serious decline there, we'll see overall sentiment fall and it will be reflected in companies' earnings. Not to mention just the emerging from this "Covid coma" mindset, where money stops coming in in tranches, and instead reality starts hitting some in the face. I'm not saying we won't see a sizeable retracement in stocks before. I think that's brewing as we speak. But if we're talking complete crash, I think stocks actually follow housing.
Funny you mentioned the late summer of 2008. I had two investment properties in a garbage area of north Miami that I owned for less than 2.5 years and sold in June of 2005 for a nice gain. But when I sold my home in Tequesta(Jupiter) in September 2008, which I'd owned for close to 6 years, was obviously much nicer and 30 years newer, I had to sell it at breakeven, and one of the stipulations was that I rented it from them for a year until they were ready to move down from NY. Otherwise, I was bringing cash to the table. So you're going off a ledge description is spot on. Nothing made sense in the lead up, and made even less in that moment.
Damn the coffee boy just found a fed.tax lien that could have been a potential 60k claim on an investment closing for later today....amazing that his wife trust him enough to do the final update on all title searches that were previously done by a professional abstractor...I think he found somewhere near 2 million in potential claims over the last few years.....I'm such a good coffee boy
In regards to the rest of the post you are pretty much spot on about investment property....If you ain't gonna hold it for income later down the road I'd send it immediately to anyone who would buy at close to market....
Agree with a whole lot of this. Especially the stagnation. I’m leaning more on the banks liquidating FC’s and driving prices down, since they may actually be the market in some areas. Although I’m probably under estimating the will of the Fed Gov’t to keep pumping out money.As someone who predicted a full fledged crash in 2005 (I sold my primary home that year and did not buy back until 2010), I am fully predicting NO crash this time. Things are totally different. However I am predicting a steady, very slow price decline that will take a long time to shake out. The factors have all been stated such as NO inventory, ZERO % rates. etc. etc. etc. People do not own 5, 10, 15 homes on SPEC trying to sell to the next sucker. But when rates rise even slightly and meet already inflated prices, the slow decline will begin. No one wants to sell for less than their next door neighbor or even worse sell for less than they purchased, so it takes a long time to shake out. there will be an incredible amount of stagnation b/c no one will sell their home b/c they have a 2% mortgage. Then when new homes start selling for less than people paid for their existing home, things will pick up to the downside again. but NO crash. Their is just not enough leverage out there for that to happen. There is plenty of debt, but not enough leverage.
Annnnnd it's gone!Just put an offer in for a house in KC.
That's what I expect to happen.Annnnnd it's gone!