Mortgage rates

Concrete Helmet

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I'm thinking we're all good....then she starts boxing up other sh*t....and more, and more, and more...it just kept coming. I said, "Where in the hell did you get all this stuff???"
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:.....You sound like me when it come to taking the garbage out every Tuesday and Friday....
 

FireFoley

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We closed yesterday on the Gulfport house. I'm sitting at Springhill Suites outside of Savanah. Absolutely brutal drive. The whole thing has been a sh*tshow. We reserved a U-haul truck in Alexandria, get there and they tell us they don't have a truck...so we had to drive into the city (just before rush hour started, then drove home in rush hour, about 45 minutes). The military is paying for the move, so I have to get the truck weighed empty and fully loaded - because those retards didn't have a truck ready in Alexandria and we had to drive into the city the place I was going to get it weighed empty closed (next closest place would have taken a few hours round trip)...so, now I have to unload it in Florida and find a weigh station to get it weighed empty before I drop it off. We loaded it up Wed night and all day Thursday. My wife had me at my wits end - for the last few weeks I've been asking her, "You do know we're moving in XX days, right?" She kept saying, "I got it", "It's taken care of". Well, moving day/days come and I load up all the boxes and furniture (w/ a couple of friends). I'm thinking we're all good....then she starts boxing up other sh*t....and more, and more, and more...it just kept coming. I said, "Where in the hell did you get all this stuff???" Anyhow, I had to pull a bunch of stuff out of the truck and reconfigure. We ended up pulling our dining room table out w/ 6 chairs and she gave it away on Craigslist. Today I got on the road t 555am. It took 11.5 hours to drive here (Richmond Hill area). I can usually do DC to Jax in 10.5 to 11 hours. Ooooof! It rained the entire drive. I got re-routed off the interstate 3 times to avoid crashes. GPS says it's 5 hours to Gulfport. I'll consider it a win if I make it there in less than 6....

upload_2021-7-2_21-42-36.jpeg
 

bradgator2

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There is no way to slice it…. Moving is flat out awful.

I think my worst is when I moved from Philly to Oregon in December. I was still single and only 4 years out of college. I packed what little I had in a upack trailer. You partition it off, then the trucking company uses the rest of the trailer for whatever they need. My wife was just my girlfriend at the time, so we hop in my truck and head west. Driving across the northern country in December was awful. Then we wreck on December 31 just west of Boise in the deserts of eastern of Oregon. The worst ice storm the state has ever seen. The state was paralyzed. No smart phones. No cell service. There is absolutely nothing in eastern Oregon. Not cool.
 

Concrete Helmet

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Investors, keep those powder kegs dry.... starting to see an uptick in listings.....some areas still flat but nationally most states are up 10-43% in June...Once the evictions ban and forebearance are lifted we'll probably see an additional 25-40% increase on top of those numbers. This will siphon investors who are considering selling to maximize profits into those who will run to sell after this nightmare into the same pool along with the credit needy who will be forced to sell or lose their property.
Oh yeah average price just fell 9,000 too......here it comes....
 
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FireFoley

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Investors, keep those powder kegs dry.... starting to see an uptick in listings.....some areas still flat but nationally most states are up 10-43% in June...Once the evictions ban and forebearance are lifted we'll probably see an additional 25-40% increase on top of those numbers. This will siphon investors who are considering selling to maximize profits into those who will run to sell after this nightmare into the same pool along with the credit needy who will be forced to sell or lose their property.
Oh yeah average price just fell 9,000 too......here it comes....

So just to add a little to your thoughts, I am starting to see small signs resembling 13-15 years ago. I was walking by what used to be a golf course that has set empty and overgrown for 15 years. Back in 2006ish, the property was going to be used for a huge building spree of homes, townhomes, condos, etc. etc. Well the surrounding communities fought it and won so the place has been an eyesore for years. Well the other day I am walking by there and construction equipment everywhere,, trees cut down, ground dug up, and all over the original 18 holes. I saw a lot of that in 2006-2007, which if I recall was literally the end of the credit bubble and unfinished developments left standing and in bankruptcy. . I asked a guy out there if he knew what was happening and he said he heard they were going to build homes, etc. Let me repeat I am NOT predicting the same result b/c very few individuals have purchased multiple properties with 110% mortgages and the starting mortgage rates are lower than 15-17 years ago. What I think will happen is a very slow, very long small decline in prices that will stabilize then drip a little lower then stabilize then drip a little lower lasting upwards of 15 or so years. Now areas like Florida, TX, AZ, parts of TN and NC, etc. will be less impacted but certain areas where people paid 30-60% over asking will be part of that long, slow drip lower, IMO.

FWIW, for those people who never think or ever thought you can lose money in residential real estate I give you a very recent example. Spoke to a friend who just sold home that was purchased 15 years ago, which was the top, south Florida. So I did some interweb snooping, and lo and behold the home was sold for the exact same price as it was purchased for in 2006. My point is that when you have one and two generational type price gains in a matter of a few years (or in this Kung Flu case one year), it can take a very very long time for dynamics to correct themselves.
 

Bullag8r

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So just to add a little to your thoughts, I am starting to see small signs resembling 13-15 years ago. I was walking by what used to be a golf course that has set empty and overgrown for 15 years. Back in 2006ish, the property was going to be used for a huge building spree of homes, townhomes, condos, etc. etc. Well the surrounding communities fought it and won so the place has been an eyesore for years. Well the other day I am walking by there and construction equipment everywhere,, trees cut down, ground dug up, and all over the original 18 holes. I saw a lot of that in 2006-2007, which if I recall was literally the end of the credit bubble and unfinished developments left standing and in bankruptcy. . I asked a guy out there if he knew what was happening and he said he heard they were going to build homes, etc. Let me repeat I am NOT predicting the same result b/c very few individuals have purchased multiple properties with 110% mortgages and the starting mortgage rates are lower than 15-17 years ago. What I think will happen is a very slow, very long small decline in prices that will stabilize then drip a little lower then stabilize then drip a little lower lasting upwards of 15 or so years. Now areas like Florida, TX, AZ, parts of TN and NC, etc. will be less impacted but certain areas where people paid 30-60% over asking will be part of that long, slow drip lower, IMO.

FWIW, for those people who never think or ever thought you can lose money in residential real estate I give you a very recent example. Spoke to a friend who just sold home that was purchased 15 years ago, which was the top, south Florida. So I did some interweb snooping, and lo and behold the home was sold for the exact same price as it was purchased for in 2006. My point is that when you have one and two generational type price gains in a matter of a few years (or in this Kung Flu case one year), it can take a very very long time for dynamics to correct themselves.

In addition to the COVID migration to Red states, the baby boomer migration is much much larger and long term. As the rust belt retirees pursue and fulfill their lifelong dream of living in a climate where they can play golf, fish and otherwise recreate outdoors 52 weeks of the year, a bubble pop, crash, pandemic or other economic bump in the road is only a temporary deterrent. According to planners and relevant statistical data, the great migration to the south as of now is only a drop in the bucket. A drop in Florida's real estate values may just be bloody chum to the bargain hunters planning their retirement.
 

Bullag8r

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Experts_grande.jpg
 

Concrete Helmet

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This guy is spot on...most landlords will be dropping their properties like a hot potato after this and although the forbearance won't be hitting all at once it will trickle enough along with regular movement(selling) to start a downward trend. Oh and Florida isn't immune to this either because we are a Mickey Mouse state of no real income producing(wage) industries....as many people move from Florida at one time or another as come here. I've seen it for 53 years....
So I'm seeing a 15-20% correction by this time next year in Florida....nationally it will be 30-40%.....
scottwaltersrealtorusa - Bing video
 

alcoholica

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This guy is spot on...most landlords will be dropping their properties like a hot potato after this and although the forbearance won't be hitting all at once it will trickle enough along with regular movement(selling) to start a downward trend. Oh and Florida isn't immune to this either because we are a Mickey Mouse state of no real income producing(wage) industries....as many people move from Florida at one time or another as come here. I've seen it for 53 years....
So I'm seeing a 15-20% correction by this time next year in Florida....nationally it will be 30-40%.....
scottwaltersrealtorusa - Bing video
People fled FL after the last Real Estate debacle. It may or may not happen this time, but to think FL is immune is silly
 

Concrete Helmet

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People fled FL after the last Real Estate debacle. It may or may not happen this time, but to think FL is immune is silly
They leave for a lot of reasons. One the pay for trades and most fields is considerably lower in Florida. A lot of people come specifically for the construction jobs then they realize they don't pay nearly as much as in other parts of the country. Even real companies like Lockheed Martin are very quick to lay people off as fast as they bring them in, and the service industry isn't enough to afford rent or a house anymore. I've seen this play out multiple times in my 53 years of living here. They come with high hopes and Mickey sends half of them packing with their tales between their legs.
 

FireFoley

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Didn't we play this game before and lose?

I mentioned this exact thing the day that the guy overseeing Fannie and Freddie was fired and those agencies were brought directly into the ORAL office. I said then that instead of taxpayers paying for many to live rent free thru Section 8, they would create a new Section # and make these same people "homeowners" while the taxpayer paid the so called "mortgages"
 

GatorCatsi

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:lol2: What's the saying people use when they're too young or too naïve to remember a disaster of one sort or the other....oh yeah, they usually say "this time is different"...
Yep.

Pretty good book by that title written in 2009.

This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
A comprehensive look at international financial crises that puts more recent economic meltdowns into perspective

Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing―and recovering―their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises.

Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"―claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong.

Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes―from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe.

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much―or how little―we have learned.

Amazon product
 

GatorCatsi

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Just got our appraisal back at 5k over what we're paying.
Also got the sellers to pay closing costs.
Small wins, but I'll take 'em.
 

GatorCatsi

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People fled FL after the last Real Estate debacle. It may or may not happen this time, but to think FL is immune is silly
The guy we rent from swooped in like a banshee and bought several houses here in Hernando Beach, Pine Island, and Spring Hill. He's got a great little retirement rental business going.
 

alcoholica

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The guy we rent from swooped in like a banshee and bought several houses here in Hernando Beach, Pine Island, and Spring Hill. He's got a great little retirement rental business going.
Some travel for him, but not too terrible
 

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