So just to add a little to your thoughts, I am starting to see small signs resembling 13-15 years ago. I was walking by what used to be a golf course that has set empty and overgrown for 15 years. Back in 2006ish, the property was going to be used for a huge building spree of homes, townhomes, condos, etc. etc. Well the surrounding communities fought it and won so the place has been an eyesore for years. Well the other day I am walking by there and construction equipment everywhere,, trees cut down, ground dug up, and all over the original 18 holes. I saw a lot of that in 2006-2007, which if I recall was literally the end of the credit bubble and unfinished developments left standing and in bankruptcy. . I asked a guy out there if he knew what was happening and he said he heard they were going to build homes, etc. Let me repeat I am NOT predicting the same result b/c very few individuals have purchased multiple properties with 110% mortgages and the starting mortgage rates are lower than 15-17 years ago. What I think will happen is a very slow, very long small decline in prices that will stabilize then drip a little lower then stabilize then drip a little lower lasting upwards of 15 or so years. Now areas like Florida, TX, AZ, parts of TN and NC, etc. will be less impacted but certain areas where people paid 30-60% over asking will be part of that long, slow drip lower, IMO.
FWIW, for those people who never think or ever thought you can lose money in residential real estate I give you a very recent example. Spoke to a friend who just sold home that was purchased 15 years ago, which was the top, south Florida. So I did some interweb snooping, and lo and behold the home was sold for the exact same price as it was purchased for in 2006. My point is that when you have one and two generational type price gains in a matter of a few years (or in this Kung Flu case one year), it can take a very very long time for dynamics to correct themselves.