Mortgage rates

BMF

Bad Mother....
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Sep 8, 2014
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I get back to DC tomorrow night, meet w/ the realtor on Tuesday. While we were gone (moving into the new Gulfport house) we had the interior painted, landscaping, and a cleaner at the house. We're also staging it. I'm not sure what we're going to list for yet - one house in our neighborhood (similar size/type) listed at $680k and sold for $750k...but another house (bigger than ours) listed for $750k and just lowered the price $20k. I have no clue - but after sinking about $7k+ into the painting, staging, landscaping, etc I'm going to be disappointed if we don't get $700k. It goes on the market either Thursday or Friday this week....
 

CGgater

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Jul 30, 2014
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I get back to DC tomorrow night, meet w/ the realtor on Tuesday. While we were gone (moving into the new Gulfport house) we had the interior painted, landscaping, and a cleaner at the house. We're also staging it. I'm not sure what we're going to list for yet - one house in our neighborhood (similar size/type) listed at $680k and sold for $750k...but another house (bigger than ours) listed for $750k and just lowered the price $20k. I have no clue - but after sinking about $7k+ into the painting, staging, landscaping, etc I'm going to be disappointed if we don't get $700k. It goes on the market either Thursday or Friday this week....
What's up, BMF? I heard you were dead.
 

BMF

Bad Mother....
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Sep 8, 2014
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What's up, BMF? I heard you were dead.

I went "dark" for a few days (no internet at the new house.....hurricane....drove to Jax....heading back to DC tomorrow).

On a sad note - the Coast Guard is searching for a good friend of mine who did not resurface from a dive yesterday while 45 miles off shore from Jacksonville. He's a UF grad, so are his two brothers. We were all Jax Beach lifeguards together:

217062579_10218357281258884_5850218813136076884_n.jpg
 

CDGator

Not Seedy
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Jul 24, 2020
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I went "dark" for a few days (no internet at the new house.....hurricane....drove to Jax....heading back to DC tomorrow).

On a sad note - the Coast Guard is searching for a good friend of mine who did not resurface from a dive yesterday while 45 miles off shore from Jacksonville. He's a UF grad, so are his two brothers. We were all Jax Beach lifeguards together:

217062579_10218357281258884_5850218813136076884_n.jpg

Devastating.
For those that have a heart, we need a sympathy emote. I’m so sorry.
 

CGgater

Gainesville Native
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Jul 30, 2014
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I went "dark" for a few days (no internet at the new house.....hurricane....drove to Jax....heading back to DC tomorrow).

On a sad note - the Coast Guard is searching for a good friend of mine who did not resurface from a dive yesterday while 45 miles off shore from Jacksonville. He's a UF grad, so are his two brothers. We were all Jax Beach lifeguards together:

217062579_10218357281258884_5850218813136076884_n.jpg
Sorry to hear. I hope the CG pulls off a miracle for your friend!

BTW, my comment had more to do with donk's post in the BNAG8R thread.
 

FireFoley

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@BMF best of luck with everything. As an aside I have noticed that stuff that was going under contract here in south Florida in about 10 minutes is sitting well over 10 days now. Not saying it is over and you are in a different area in Va., but it is a little slower here, but stuff still moving, just not in seconds. As I have been saying, everyone who WANTED to overpay for a home/condo, etc. already has.

Lastly, prayers for your friend and his family. may we hear good news on that front.
 

BMF

Bad Mother....
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Lumber prices falling:

Lumber Wipes Out 2021 Gain With Demand Ebbing After Record Boom

Lumber, which at one point was among the world’s best-performing commodities as the pandemic sent construction demand soaring and stoked fears of inflation, has officially wiped out all of its staggering gains for the year.

Prices at Monday’s close are now down 0.6% for the year as demand eases and supply expands in response to earlier gains. The rally turned a common building product into a social media sensation and a flash point in the debate over U.S. monetary policy. At one point, lumber futures were trading as high as $1,733.50 per thousand board feet, more than quadruple the level of a year earlier.

Lumber’s drop is among the most dramatic examples of the easing in commodity prices after rallies in raw materials from copper to corn earlier this year fueled concern that rising costs would undercut the economic recovery. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last month cited lumber’s decline as evidence that price pressures will cool as supply bottlenecks from the reopening economy are worked out and stimulus fades.


“The sheer expense has taken many people out of the market,” said Jamie Greenough, investment and commodities futures adviser for brokerage PI Financial in Vancouver.

Lumber for September delivery fell 5.6% Monday to $712.90 per thousand board feet on the CME.

Prices have declined on rising inventory levels and a “significant drop” in lumber demand at large retail stores, where do-it-yourself home renovators typically make their purchases, said Westline Capital Strategies Inc. Chief Executive Officer Greg Kuta, whose Ohio-based firm specializes in lumber-trading strategies. Lower renovations have made more wood available for home builders to buy, which has helped to pressure prices lower, Kuta said.

The market has even shrugged off more than 300 simultaneous wildfires and rail car gridlock in major producing region British Columbia in Western Canada.

Still the current price level is historically high. Since the 1990s, lumber futures have mostly traded between $200 to $400 per thousand board feet, with the exception of 2018 when they shot above $600. This “massive corrective free fall” indicates the market is resetting to reflect supply-demand expectations for the rest of the year, according to Kuta.

Historically high prices for lumber threaten to keep housing costs high in North America for the foreseeable future. Lumber prices are undergoing a “paradigm shift” and are in the process of determining a new and much higher average price level as a result,” Kuta said.

“I think lumber futures prices will continue to see severe, two-sided volatility vacillating in a more extreme price range of $550 to $1,200 for the remainder of 2021,” Kuta said in an email. “But any attempt to break back above the $1,000 level should be aggressively sold by lumber producers.”

Lumber prices could find a “near-term floor around $700–$800 before moving higher again ahead of the fall construction season,” citing “a very disruptive fire season” as a likely upside catalyst for prices, ERA Forest Products Research said in a June 30 note.

Paul Quinn, an analyst for RBC Capital Markets, said it is typical for prices to drift lower during the summer months, make a small rally in September, and drop again in November.

“We think 2022 spring prices will see a similar run as 2021, though likely not as high given the incremental capacity adds,” Quinn said, noting that new home construction demand is still accelerating. “We still expect prices will be higher than long-term averages going forward.”
 

BMF

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Here's the listing: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/M5273295649

Just need one sucker!!

The small room w/ the small blue couch is where I'm sleeping. It folds out into a twin, and I have a mattress topper. I'm here for at least another month, sucks! I have to put everything away daily, tidy up, and get TF out. There's an open house Saturday & Sunday. Hopefully it sells quickly....
 

FireFoley

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Looks nice @BMF. The fact that you priced it under 700K will bring in more suckers who think they can now afford it. Nice big drop in long term rates this week might also give you help. also just b/c it is listed for a price does not preclude anyone from making an offer over asking. see @BMF-Cabin in the Woods!
 

LagoonGator68

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My rule #2 after location #1 is how and where does the water go? AKA, think like water.
 

Gatordiddy

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Here's the listing: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/M5273295649

Just need one sucker!!

The small room w/ the small blue couch is where I'm sleeping. It folds out into a twin, and I have a mattress topper. I'm here for at least another month, sucks! I have to put everything away daily, tidy up, and get TF out. There's an open house Saturday & Sunday. Hopefully it sells quickly....

good luck - good looking house.
 

Gator By Marriage

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Here's the listing: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/M5273295649

Just need one sucker!!

The small room w/ the small blue couch is where I'm sleeping. It folds out into a twin, and I have a mattress topper. I'm here for at least another month, sucks! I have to put everything away daily, tidy up, and get TF out. There's an open house Saturday & Sunday. Hopefully it sells quickly....
Good luck. The location alone will help you sell it fairly quickly. We used to live a few miles due NW of you in Dominion Hills. Outside of how lefty it is, Arlington is a great place to live.

I thought the property history pull down was pretty fascinating.
 

BMF

Bad Mother....
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Good luck. The location alone will help you sell it fairly quickly. We used to live a few miles due NW of you in Dominion Hills. Outside of how lefty it is, Arlington is a great place to live.

I thought the property history pull down was pretty fascinating.

Thanks man. The two open houses were kind of 'meh', only about 20 groups (represented by agents) showed up....no offers. The market here has definitely cooled. There's only 2 other houses in all of Arlington under $700k, and one is a dump (needs full reno). I'm getting worried, really don't want to have to lower the asking price.
 

FireFoley

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Thanks man. The two open houses were kind of 'meh', only about 20 groups (represented by agents) showed up....no offers. The market here has definitely cooled. There's only 2 other houses in all of Arlington under $700k, and one is a dump (needs full reno). I'm getting worried, really don't want to have to lower the asking price.

Hang in there, it only takes one. And the new strain of the Kung Flu might just send one family to your doorstep.

As an aside I posted two price cuts by bank analysts yesterday on Rocket Mortgage (RKT). I am not picking on RKT or their business etc. but the gist of both reports is that the refi market is over, which we have mentioned on here a lot.


JPMorgan Adjusts Rocket's Price Target to $16.50 From $21, Maintains Underweight Rating

--Wedbush Cuts Rocket to Underperform From Neutral, PT to $12 From $14, Anticipating 'Dramatic Fall Off in Refinance,' 'Slowing Levels of Purchase-Related Mortgages'
 

FireFoley

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Housing boom is over as new home sales fall to pandemic low

I have no clue and find it hard to extrapolate on one month's numbers, but I have noticed listings of existing homes (I know this was a new homes #) are taking more than 5 minutes to sell now. Perhaps this is the start of my 10-15 year prediction on a low, slow stair step down in prices. time will tell.
 

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