Napier’s first full offseason thread

[lagator]

Who in the name of God said that? Certainly not me, and no one else I can think of. In fact, I said if there wasn't obvious improvement in year 2 it's a direct reflection on his coaching abilities. I would absolutely see it as a red flag.

You simply see wins and losses as the pure black and white correlation on the state of the team. With an established coach and team (like UGA), that's generally true. In UF's circumstances, it isn't. If the team showed obvious improvement from their often sloppy play in 2022 yet only went 7-5 because a couple of close losses to ranked teams, are you suggesting we should fire Napier at that point? Just keep the revolving door of coaches going every 2 to 4 years?

I’m not suggesting we fire him if we go 7-5 because he is going to be back 2024 regardless. But I’m guaranteeing there will be tons of noise in the system. Already this year the national press ranked him at the bottom of the new hires and gave him a grade of D+. A repeat of last year’s record while other new coaches are building on their first year successes will be viewed very negatively.

We’re both agreeing we need to see improvement next year. Where we diverge is you think we can end the regular season 7-5 and still show improvement and I’m saying there’s no such animal. If there is real improvement it will show up in the win/loss record, especially the second half of the season.

 

[Gator By Marriage]

I’m not suggesting we fire him if we go 7-5 because he is going to be back 2024 regardless. But I’m guaranteeing there will be tons of noise in the system. Already this year the national press ranked him at the bottom of the new hires and gave him a grade of D+.

Most people in the press are lazy. They take a look at the record and compare it 1st year guys like Riley and Dykes and say why isn't Napier winning 10 games? He gets a D+..... If one of them took the time to look at all the issues he's fixed and the foundation he's building, I think they'd be giving him a higher grade. Is the bottom line wins and losses? Ultimately yes, but not for first year guys. That grade is both stupid and, in the end, meaningless.

 

[oxrageous]

It's why I usually stay out of these kinds of discussions.

Thank Christ.

 

[aka]

Most people in the press are lazy. They take a look at the record and compare it 1st year guys like Riley and Dykes and say why isn't Napier winning 10 games? He gets a D+..... If one of them took the time to look at all the issues he's fixed and the foundation he's building, I think they'd be giving him a higher grade. Is the bottom line wins and losses? Ultimately yes, but not for first year guys. That grade is both stupid and, in the end, meaningless.

I tend to think this way, too. Everyone should realize how the press are. We have to do better and I think we are. I just hope it gets us more W's.

 

[aka]

Thank Christ.

 

[I Have No Friends :(]

Most people in the press are lazy. They take a look at the record and compare it 1st year guys like Riley and Dykes and say why isn't Napier winning 10 games? He gets a D+..... If one of them took the time to look at all the issues he's fixed and the foundation he's building, I think they'd be giving him a higher grade. Is the bottom line wins and losses? Ultimately yes, but not for first year guys. That grade is both stupid and, in the end, meaningless.

You don't get to lose to Vandy and Kentucky in the same year while going 0-fer against your rivals as head coach at Florida and get any grade higher than a D+. Sorry, I don't make the rules.

 

[Gator By Marriage]

You don't get to lose to Vandy and Kentucky in the same year while going 0-fer against your rivals as head coach at Florida and get any grade higher than a D+. Sorry, I don't make the rules.

B.S. There are no rules. Wins and losses the first year are only part of the picture. You wanna give him a D+ the first year? Be my guest, but the same people prolly gave the last guy an B+ or higher for the first year and we all know how that story ended and most everybody here knew that was an inflated grade. I agree with everyone else here the the on-field product was way too often disappointing to down right pitiful, but it's the height of ignorance to not realize he accomplished quite a bit off the field. If we want to be truly fair - a rarity here on this topic - the proper grade is probably an "incomplete."

 

[Theologator]

Personally, I think a terrific run game combined with a veteran QB like Mertz not turning the ball over could be a lot more effective than the maddening Jeckle-and-Hyde nonsense we got out of Richardson. This massive OL we are compiling excites me - I want to steamroll opponents. All we need from Mertz is to keep defenses from stacking the line.

That’s the project with Mertz, to not stare down his target, work through progressions, and deliver the ball on time to the right target. He got zero help with that at WI. If he responds to coaching we’ll all be happy, or happier.

But we also need our defense to be a defense. Why can’t we load the box and dare teams to throw it? Why do we give huge cushions on 3rd & long? Here’s hoping we see huge steps forward on D. The pieces added offer some hope. And I’m looking for James and McClellan in particular to be great players this fall.

 

[Theologator]

Isn't the knock on Mertz that he has accuracy issues and turns it over too often? Even more than AR.

Will Miles described his stats as “AR without the rushing.”

But, Wisconsin’s passing attack was horribly conceived and the most predictable offense in the country. They ran more on first & second downs than anyone. They faced 3rd & 10+ more than anyone. Their routes were slow developing, which forced him to hold the ball too long. No slants or other quick throws. And they had lost their top 3 WRs from 2021, with no emerging talent. He does throw a nice deep ball.

We can reasonably expect Mertz to be a 60% completion guy and if things go well edge towards 65%. He’s got to stop staring down his primary target, work efficiently through his progressions and deliver the ball on time. BN will coach him on all that and design opportunities that Chryst never did. We’ll see how he responds.

 

[GatorTruth133]

Will Miles described his stats as “AR without the rushing.”

But, Wisconsin’s passing attack was horribly conceived and the most predictable offense in the country. They ran more on first & second downs than anyone. They faced 3rd & 10+ more than anyone. Their routes were slow developing, which forced him to hold the ball too long. No slants or other quick throws. And they had lost their top 3 WRs from 2021, with no emerging talent. He does throw a nice deep ball.

We can reasonably expect Mertz to be a 60% completion guy and if things go well edge towards 65%. He’s got to stop staring down his primary target, work efficiently through his progressions and deliver the ball on time. BN will coach him on all that and design opportunities that Chryst never did. We’ll see how he responds.

Our passing attack isn't much better with long developing routes. Very few slants or quick throws. Hopefully, that changes. Again, this scheme has been in the 60's or higher passing more times than it has been 59 or above. I agree with Gator Nation Football Podcast on this one. And AR without the rushing looks like the Oregon State game. Trust me, missing one guard shouldn't leave you with 7 yards in 2 quarters combined. Especially when you had played without that player already this season.

Maybe this passing scheme does get updated. Maybe Mertz is the Heisman winner I keep seeing people projecting on Twitter. Until then, it is all projection without much basis in what's been seen so far both from Mertz and this scheme.

Also, my favorite you didn't mention, "MeRtz wAs BAd Cuz 3 oC's in 3 YeAR's". So yes, if its always switching OC's, and your logic is he is hampered by changing OC's every year, than why is the logic a 4th OC in 4 years magically changes that problem of OC changes? The very thing that is said to be the problem. You can say this offense is a better fit, but offensive fit is different than saying changing coaches is the struggle, but somehow isn't a struggle now.

 

[Durty South Swamp]

Our passing attack isn't much better with long developing routes. Very few slants or quick throws. Hopefully, that changes. Again, this scheme has been in the 60's or higher passing more times than it has been 59 or above. I agree with Gator Nation Football Podcast on this one. And AR without the rushing looks like the Oregon State game. Trust me, missing one guard shouldn't leave you with 7 yards in 2 quarters combined. Especially when you had played without that player already this season.

Maybe this passing scheme does get updated. Maybe Mertz is the Heisman winner I keep seeing people projecting on Twitter. Until then, it is all projection without much basis in what's been seen so far both from Mertz and this scheme.

Also, my favorite you didn't mention, "MeRtz wAs BAd Cuz 3 oC's in 3 YeAR's". So yes, if its always switching OC's, and your logic is he is hampered by changing OC's every year, than why is the logic a 4th OC in 4 years magically changes that problem of OC changes? The very thing that is said to be the problem. You can say this offense is a better fit, but offensive fit is different than saying changing coaches is the struggle, but somehow isn't a struggle now.

in before the bannings...

 

[oxrageous]

Mertz might be fine. Mertz might suck. WE DON'T KNOW.

 

[Bernardo de la Paz]

Will Miles described his stats as “AR without the rushing.”

But, Wisconsin’s passing attack was horribly conceived and the most predictable offense in the country. They ran more on first & second downs than anyone. They faced 3rd & 10+ more than anyone. Their routes were slow developing, which forced him to hold the ball too long. No slants or other quick throws. And they had lost their top 3 WRs from 2021, with no emerging talent. He does throw a nice deep ball.

We can reasonably expect Mertz to be a 60% completion guy and if things go well edge towards 65%. He’s got to stop staring down his primary target, work efficiently through his progressions and deliver the ball on time. BN will coach him on all that and design opportunities that Chryst never did. We’ll see how he responds.

*Sigh*

This motivated me to actually do some of my own research.

What I found is that first of all, Mertz only had two OCs in 4 years.

You pointed out that in 2022 he lost his top 3 receivers. Guess what, in 2021 when he had those receivers in his third year at Wisconsin, second year as a starter under a 7th year OC in Joe Rudolph, and behind an OL that delivered the 14th best rushing attack in country... he threw 11 picks on a dismal 3.9% of his passes.

That 3.9% improved slightly to a still terrible 3.5% under a new OC in 2022. His best season as far as taking care of the football was his redshirt freshman year in 2020 at a 2.6% rate. The only difference I see between that year and the other two is that he had a dedicated QB coach. (spoiler alert: he won't have one here)

I also checked to see if maybe Joe Rudolph just never produced any decent QBs. What I found was that the guy right before Mertz, Jack Coan a redshirt sophomore, had a pretty good year in his first and only season as the Wisconsin starter in 2019. He threw for 2700 yards with a 70% completion rate for 18 TDs to 5 INTs (1.5% of attempts).

Obviously this is just looking at stats without much context to what was going on, but I would say that if we are being reasonable we should expect Mertz to throw a lot of picks and we should be pleasantly surprised if he completes 60% of his passes or more.

 

[TN G8tr]

What Napier is doing in the portal seems to be more fitted to what he does offensively. We all can conclude that yes Mertz had a rough offense and coaching at Wisky. How in the world do you only throw play action 9 times in a whole season. That should tell you all about Wisky's mentality.

With Bringing in Cameron Carroll from Tulane also tells a bit. Good pass catching back that can pass protect. Had "0" sacks in pass protection last year. You would think at least he'll be the #3 back. If he can get past his mistakes and read progressions, adding a back as relief valve should help as well.

We have no idea how good or how bad he will be. But you can see they are trying to get the tools they need. Building a helluva OL. So set whoever the QB is sets up as a game manager and not a losing one. All I ask is can you hit a back in the flat or not shoot a missile to him?

 

[Theologator]

*Sigh*

This motivated me to actually do some of my own research.

What I found is that first of all, Mertz only had two OCs in 4 years.

You pointed out that in 2022 he lost his top 3 receivers. Guess what, in 2021 when he had those receivers in his third year at Wisconsin, second year as a starter under a 7th year OC in Joe Rudolph, and behind an OL that delivered the 14th best rushing attack in country... he threw 11 picks on a dismal 3.9% of his passes.

That 3.9% improved slightly to a still terrible 3.5% under a new OC in 2022. His best season as far as taking care of the football was his redshirt freshman year in 2020 at a 2.6% rate. The only difference I see between that year and the other two is that he had a dedicated QB coach. (spoiler alert: he won't have one here)

I also checked to see if maybe Joe Rudolph just never produced any decent QBs. What I found was that the guy right before Mertz, Jack Coan a redshirt sophomore, had a pretty good year in his first and only season as the Wisconsin starter in 2019. He threw for 2700 yards with a 70% completion rate for 18 TDs to 5 INTs (1.5% of attempts).

Obviously this is just looking at stats without much context to what was going on, but I would say that if we are being reasonable we should expect Mertz to throw a lot of picks and we should be pleasantly surprised if he completes 60% of his passes or more.

Nice work. Thanks. If he doesn’t drop that turnover rate it will really hurt.

 

[AuggieDosta]

*Sigh*

This motivated me to actually do some of my own research.

What I found is that first of all, Mertz only had two OCs in 4 years.

You pointed out that in 2022 he lost his top 3 receivers. Guess what, in 2021 when he had those receivers in his third year at Wisconsin, second year as a starter under a 7th year OC in Joe Rudolph, and behind an OL that delivered the 14th best rushing attack in country... he threw 11 picks on a dismal 3.9% of his passes.

That 3.9% improved slightly to a still terrible 3.5% under a new OC in 2022. His best season as far as taking care of the football was his redshirt freshman year in 2020 at a 2.6% rate. The only difference I see between that year and the other two is that he had a dedicated QB coach. (spoiler alert: he won't have one here)

I also checked to see if maybe Joe Rudolph just never produced any decent QBs. What I found was that the guy right before Mertz, Jack Coan a redshirt sophomore, had a pretty good year in his first and only season as the Wisconsin starter in 2019. He threw for 2700 yards with a 70% completion rate for 18 TDs to 5 INTs (1.5% of attempts).

Obviously this is just looking at stats without much context to what was going on, but I would say that if we are being reasonable we should expect Mertz to throw a lot of picks and we should be pleasantly surprised if he completes 60% of his passes or more.

Have we all forgotten Mertz's comment/words that he "was a shotgun QB in HS but chose Wisconsin because their O was under center and he wanted to put that type of skill set on tape to better prepare him for the NFL"? Let's overlook that he chose poorly as the NFL now have most QBs in the gun. Being in the gun should give him more time to read the D/field and give him another second or two to make a decision.

 

[Theologator]

Mertz might be fine. Mertz might suck. WE DON'T KNOW.

I’m far from exhausting my ignorance re: Graham Mertz (among other things.)

 

[Egor's Assistant]

I’m far from exhausting my ignorance re: Graham Mertz (among other things.)

For all we know, Graham Cracker is the second coming of Stetson Bennett.

 

[lagator]

For all we know, Graham Cracker is the second coming of Stetson Bennett.

As hard as you try, this just isn’t getting any traction.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

I wasn’t concerned with losing and winning games as I just wanted to watch us be competitive.

I wanted more of an edge in the rivalry games.I wanted to see great game plans taking advantage of teams weaknesses.
I wanted to be in awe of how individual players played and improved throughout the season.

You pretty much captured it right there.....I got roughed up by 90% of the members in here even before the season started because I saw a HUGE talent gap between us and the top 25-35 teams in the country.....What I wanted to see is if this guy could make us competitive game in and game out with game over game steady improvements AND putting team in positions to offset some of the talent disparity....I saw none of that and the coaching never improved either....in fact it seems to get worse toward the end of the season. Not a good sign going forward with or without more talent.