Recruiting NSD 2020 Thread: Zach Evans goes to TCU

[SeabeeGator]

Not trying to be contrarian, and any fool can see I said recruiting is important. But going back to post #455, what really is the difference between a 5.8 and a 5.9?

Individually? No difference. Collectively? I would have to see the actual numbers but I’m guessing you would see a difference in post season awards, draft position, etc.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

I read all the time about recruiting services bumping uga and fsu guys. Do we think that really happens or is it just sour grapes??

it CLEARLY happens w 247. CLEARLY. like a two-star player signs with FSU and he's a borderline 4-star the next day or two. Then a four star a few months later.

but I don't look at 247 because it's garbage.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Did you just pluck that number out of the sky?

Which number?

 

[Woodstork]

CDM can and will win here. It just isn’t happening at the benchmark pace of the two greatest modern-era HBCs (Meyer, Saban). But it will happen.

There has been fundamental improvement every year. Flipped a losing roster into a winning one in Year 1. Changed the team culture to ‘the Gator standard.’ Took care of sloppy losses and made progress in roster balance in Year 2, with upgrades at 2 position coaches. Recruited better in Year 3 with some potentially generational players on both sides of the ball. Upgraded one position coach.

 

[Oscar the G]

"trust the coaches"

There are countless studies that prove you need bluechip talent to win. Period. It's empirical data not anything made up.

Are you just trolling?

Who said trust the coaches? My question is how accurate are the services in dividing the blue chip talent? And what's the real onfield difference between high blue chip talent and low blue chip talent?

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Who said trust the coaches? My question is how accurate are the services in dividing the blue chip talent? And what's the real onfield difference between high blue chip talent and low blue chip talent?

I mean they're generally accurate I forget the number exactly but a 5* or high 4* (5.9 6.0) they succeed about 50%.

When you get down into the three stars, theyre like a one in 30 to 1 in 50 guys.

There is a reason why Meyer and saban and all the others are fighting for those high 4* guys. and there is a reason why they were our plan a and plan b that we spent most of the year trying to land.

 

[TheDouglas78]

I read all the time about recruiting services bumping uga and fsu guys. Do we think that really happens or is it just sour grapes?

If you took that I said the recruiting analysts at rivals, 247, etc have no clue then you werent paying attention. I'm saying these services are definitely able to decipher talent (for the most part). But what are the levels of talent? No one wants to be 6th in the SEC. but does that accurately depict the talent gap? (As decided by a for profit company) I'm saying what is the actual difference between a 3.9 player and a 3.7?

Could they be wrong on a single player here and there compared to another, sure. Are they going to be so wrong on 25 players compared to 23 players... that is where the issue is. If the different in one player against another is 5.8 to 5.9 probably not, but 5.9 to 6.0 there is. As far as recruiting service bumping because X school gets them, might happen, I think the older ones (rivals for example) it's not going to happen too much reputation is on the line. The problem isn't most of us aren't talking about one player being .1 better, we are talking about a whole class average .1 or more better which is a much bigger issue.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Do this exercise, go to Rivals and pull down our old classes. Look at the Mullen Meyers years so you arent getting ground clutter of poor coaching and sort the classes by the rivals ranking, see the better success rates of the 6.1 and 6.0 vs 5.9. Then look at 5.8 vs 5.9.

It still works if you go to the Chimp/McElwain/Mullinz years it works too, you'll see less (or no) all SEC players but guys that are just starters.

as in all stats you're looking for clusters

 

[Oscar the G]

Do this exercise, go to Rivals and pull down our old classes. Look at the Mullen Meyers years so you arent getting ground clutter of poor coaching and sort the classes by the rivals ranking, see

It still works if you go to the Chimp/McElwain/Mullinz years it works too, you'll see less (or no) all SEC players but guys that are just starters.

as in all stats you're looking for clusters

But is that the correct exercise? Why not compare all the 5.8 and 5.9 and 6s? The problem is there are a million variables. I dont want yall to trust the coaches. I ain't pumping the team. I'm just questioning the respect yall give to the 5.8/6 rating difference.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

But is that the correct exercise? Why not compare all the 5.8 and 5.9 and 6s? The problem is there are a million variables. I dont want yall to trust the coaches. I ain't pumping the team. I'm just questioning the respect yall give to the 5.8/6 rating difference.

If you have the time, knock yourself out.

Or send a Twitter request to Miles cuz he seems to live for this sort of thing. he may already have the data.

 

[t-gator]

I'm not understanding all this fall out from you guys? Signing went exactly how we thought it would minus Williams plus umenalium. I get the point about not being on par the with some of our rivals but we've known for over a month that this was how we were gonna finish.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

I'm not understanding all this fall out from you guys? .

It finish exactly the way I thought it would, sixth in SEC.

Most others were sure we were gettin ERRBODY and building championships rosters.

 

[TheDouglas78]

I'm not understanding all this fall out from you guys? Signing went exactly how we thought it would minus Williams plus umenalium. I get the point about not being on par the with some of our rivals but we've known for over a month that this was how we were gonna finish.

t, I don't think most of us are surprised, I think that is the real issue. I don't think it is fall out except for the people who honestly thought we were going to shoot up in the top 5.

 

[GatorInGeorgia]

Article:

A big part of McElwain’s successful first two seasons was that he went 7-1 in one-score games. When that success regressed to the mean (2-2 under McElwain in 2017), the bottom fell out.

Mullen has gone 6-1 in close games during his tenure. A lot of that is due to his abilities as a coach, but those things tend to level out over time. Were he 4-3 or 3-4 in those games – as we would expect – would we feel as rosy going into 2020?

We needed a late score and then a defensive stand to beat Miami. Lowly, shytty, FREAKING Miami for heaven sake!

As the article aptly notes, those games won’t always go in our favor.

 

[GatorInGeorgia]

Rivals.com - National Signing Day: Winners and losers

Always exciting to be considered losers by national recruiting websites.

Fcvking ridiculous! We’ve got several loser recruiter/coaches that need to be fired ASAP. Unfortunately I don’t see it happening.

 

[Marine1]

These guys are still in depression over missing Chip Kelly. He was the guy they truly believed would exceed 21-5 first 2 years and already have 2 NC’s here. The few who were not Chip fans were Norvelle fans. When he wins it all this year they will jump ship and bandwagon the Noles. How can he lose? You see his recruiting at Memphis South?

We got better in 2019. We will be better again in 2020. On track.

 

[t-gator]

It finish exactly the way I thought it would, sixth in SEC.

Most others were sure we were gettin ERRBODY and building championships rosters.

Anyone that's followed this thread thought we were only signing Henderson and Williams. Nobody predicted anyone else

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Anyone that's followed this thread thought we were only signing Henderson and Williams. Nobody predicted anyone else

Lulz... ok.

 

[GatorKen714]

The only way to test if the recruiting services are worth a piss is to see where the player is after 3 or 4 or even 5 years. Plenty of 5 star dropouts vs 3 star successes. Anyone have that info or is that a trade secrete no one is allowed to see