Positioning for the Great Reset

Discussion in 'Business, Investing & Finance' started by Concrete Helmet, Nov 24, 2020.

  1. Concrete Helmet

    Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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    Ok, it is officially on at this point with the Corona virus/rigged election results and expiration of the LIBOR all happening within an 18 month span. The writing is on the wall with another round of shutdowns to kill off the rest of most service oriented industries as well as what is expected to be a major shift away from conventional energy sources in the coming years...

    What I want to get an idea of is the best way to position myself going forward for the next 1.5 years or so(short term) and then beyond for 8-10 years(retirement) Currently I have a majority of investments in commercial and residential RE that are around 70% equity in total market value of holdings. Half of these holdings are split with a partner. I have roughly 35% of the amount of RE equity in retirement funds that are for the most part set at the accepted risk rate appropriate for my age(70/30)or so minus my little experimental funds :lol: that always seem to do better when I leave them alone...and last but not least about half of the total equity in RE in liquid cash, savings, CD's and such.

    Knowing that taxes of ALL kinds(including RE and capital gains)are likely to go up drastically as well as inflation with the coming of UBI and government assistance programs and debt forgiveness where do you guys see the biggest opportunities? My understanding is typically when the CB does any kind of reset they will default to using gold as a way to value their paper(or electronic transfers in the future). Would they manipulate the value of gold to perhaps make it more or less desirable?

    Factoring in taxes, inflation, interest rates, and market cycle timing what will be the key to continued financial success. Thoughts?
     
  2. CDGator

    CDGator Well-Known Member
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    Following...
     
  3. Concrete Helmet

    Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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    I guess all of the resident guru's haven't returned from the Global Economic Convention yet...:lol:
     
    • CDGator

      CDGator Well-Known Member
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      Or busy burying their gold in the back yard?
       
    • BMF

      BMF Bad Mother....
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      CH, I have no clue. I don't think any of us has a crystal ball, but I'd like to see what @Detroitgator has to say.

      I've been cautious lately and dumping anything that I've made some profit on - I dumped Ford stock today after it ran up. I've owned F for years and watched it tank and still hung on (like a dumbass), I added shares along the way down and today, it finally paid off. I'm actually pretty excited about it and I don't really care if it keeps going up and I miss out. I'm kinda embarrassed to admit how far down I was in F!

      I think having some cash and keeping your eyes and ears open and you'll catch on to whatever is coming. Maybe something in solar, green energy, or something along those lines since Creepy Joe is going to end climate change once and for all!

      I'm counting on a real estate bubble. I've been talking about it on here w/ @FireFoley quite a bit. I don't see anything like 2007/08, but at least a 15-25% dip in current prices.

      You mentioned commercial real estate. I listen to Ric Edelman (financial show) every week. He said the expectation is for commercial real estate to take a big hit in 2021 - which makes sense considering how many people are teleworking nowadays vs. going into the office.
       
    • Concrete Helmet

      Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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      You are going to see RE take a hit. I'm not going to say how quick but keep your eye out starting in March...Florida will be later. Same with commercial. Florida will be much later because EVERYONE is trying to move here. In our case the commercial buildings should be fine as the smaller one is paid off and brings 3.5K per month with a current value of 450K....The larger building is somewhere in the 1.8m-2.2m range with about 250K owed. We lease this from our investment company to our business so were not looking to sell or move(prime downtown location).

      The residential rentals and our primary are all currently between 50-60% equity at current market value....Here's where it get tricky though. I am starting to wonder if I should refinance all of them to take advantage of interest rates that are literally as low or lower than the rate of inflation as well getting/keeping the tax write offs or pay them off? I worked on a few investment loans this week that we closed at 2.5%@15yrs!!! Yeah, 2.5% investment(heavy fees)....decisions decisions...

      Another part of the equation is investing. I don't trust this stock run up further than March/April at the latest due to a coming change in taxes and likely double digit unemployment in alot of the country. Starting to wonder about gold which I know nothing about ...oh and of course another investment property or 2 once the drop hits Florida(likely 12-18 moth's).
       
      • 78

        78 Dazed and Confused
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        With interest rates this terminally low, you’d be silly to bet against capital markets with the possible exception of commercial RE, which is going to be impacted by continued high unemployment coupled with a permanent transition toward a stay-at-home labor force.
         
        • Concrete Helmet

          Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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          What's the old saying.....location, location, location...Some areas like Florida will remain stronger for longer(1.5-2yrs)
          BTW I'm with you on the markets until they get a dose of double digit unemployment and tax revisions....My take is the SM will be worse by this April than it was last March creating another dilemma....do you buy that dip or wait for the RE dip......or I guess you could do both as long as you're going to stay in the game for about 3-5 years minimum....
           
        • BMF

          BMF Bad Mother....
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          If you can refi at 80% of current value and pocket the remainder for future investments that may not be a bad route. I'd be worried about going 80%, personally, because if/when the market tanks you wouldn't be at 80%....more like 90% or more. I agree w/ your timelines. Florida probably won't start tanking for another year. BUT, I do see prices leveling off soon (I follow certain areas in Florida and I'm already seeing a lot of price drops - people are greedy and are over listing their homes).

          If we move back before May or June we'll likely rent until we see an opportunity (ie the market drops off a little).
           
          • Concrete Helmet

            Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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            Yup were leveling off in this area and have recently gotten hammered with Investor sell offs over the last 2 month's at the office.(cashing out at the top).
            I would never go back to 80% and most lenders will only go 70% on investment anyway. I'd most likely just refi the remaining balance(40-50%) to stay way ahead of the drop because you never know what life can throw at you....I didn't work with my wife back in 2007-2010 but she went from having 2 title companies in 3 locations to having 1 and went from about 30 employees to 7, often forgoing a paycheck for month's to feed the remaining mouths... sold off a 700k building downtown which is worth double that right now :banghead:...just don't want to end up there again.
             
            • 78

              78 Dazed and Confused
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              Blot out the news. The only thing that matters right now is policy decision, specifically a stimulus bill and what the Fed plans next. Both are expected to be bold. The financial markets will continue to melt up in anticipation. I’m very bullish.
               
              • Concrete Helmet

                Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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                I would never argue your advise but the market didn't like ANOTHER upward jobless claim today....and I don't believe it is going to like the ones in March/April either. Vaccine giddiness will also have subsided by then. Yes feast now and often for the next 2 month's is my prediction.
                 
              • Detroitgator

                Detroitgator Well-Known Member
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                I agree with 78, and I think you are making the mistake I did going on 10 years ago now... trying to figure out when this game will end. Biden, especially now with Yellen = monumental debt increases = massively stock market positive... long term (whenever it finally happens), not so good... at all...
                 
                • Concrete Helmet

                  Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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                  I'm down with a run up no matter what the timeline is...and will pull back accordingly when a big drop happens so no problem there. What I'm trying to figure out is what else to get my hands on(gold, silver, bitcoin or whatever)to back up the other investments and RE during the downturn, ya know something less trackable/taxable ....right now I just have fistfuls of dollar bills....:lol:
                   
                • Detroitgator

                  Detroitgator Well-Known Member
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                  oh, unless you buy precious metals in increments under $5K, you gettin' tracked, and if you makin regular purchases in the same $ amounts, you gettin' troubles...

                  The one thing I hated in the Trump tax cuts was the removal of precious metals from 1031 exchanges. :(
                   
                  • Concrete Helmet

                    Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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                    You ever watch a squirrel collect acorns....
                     
                    • ChiefGator

                      ChiefGator A Chief and a Gator, Master of the Ignore list!!!!
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                      The great reset is not really going to happen. Now commercial real estate will be taking a major hit. I see ads for a reit that claims all sorts of great things, if they were reality they would not need an ad to get you to invest.

                      If somehow those idiots get rid of fossil fuels a revolution will happen with them not being around when we go back to having electricity and cars.
                       
                    • Concrete Helmet

                      Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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                      Chief open your eyes...Look back at 1907, 1933 and 1971....
                      What percentage of shopping is online?
                      There are businesses who DON'T want your cash...it's dirty.
                      Both the price of gold and the stock market are influenced MORE by the CB than by individual investors.
                      How often do you use a CC now versus 25 years ago..
                       
                    • ChiefGator

                      ChiefGator A Chief and a Gator, Master of the Ignore list!!!!
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                      Perhaps my idea of the reset is in error. My idea is that we will remove fossil fuels from our society in some very short period of time. They don't like nuclear power either.

                      I would like for all nuclear power plants to shut down for say two weeks to show these idiots what would happen. I need a whole house generator and a lot of propane first.

                      Otherwise I agree, I don't use cash much because it is not that convenient and might be a source of the virus.
                       
                    • itsgr82bag8r

                      itsgr82bag8r Political Forum Fire Starter
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                      Next to their rifles.
                       

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