Predict the Senate

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Ancient Reptile, Oct 27, 2018.

  1. Gator Fever

    Gator Fever Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2014
    Messages:
    21,341
    Oxbucks:
    $2,226
    Ratings:
    +6,256 / -130
    Trafalgar had the white guy getting 30% of the black vote in Georgia in their governor poll.
     
  2. alcoholica

    alcoholica Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2014
    Messages:
    11,139
    Oxbucks:
    $2,316
    Ratings:
    +9,277 / -337
    WV is now considered a toss up.
     
  3. Swamp Donkey

    Swamp Donkey TaggelwainLivesMatter
    Lifetime Member

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2014
    Messages:
    41,562
    Oxbucks:
    $23,877
    Ratings:
    +48,206 / -1,765
    Manchin is gonna lose. The last minute whisper promise to flip parties is desperation, and probably a lie. Too late for that.

    They hate lefties, and they aren't going to vote for Chuck Shumer.
     
    #83 Swamp Donkey, Nov 5, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2018
    • alcoholica

      alcoholica Well-Known Member

      Joined:
      Jun 11, 2014
      Messages:
      11,139
      Oxbucks:
      $2,316
      Ratings:
      +9,277 / -337
      I think a super majority needs to be watched for tomorrow. It's in play.
       
      • Ancient Reptile

        Ancient Reptile Senior Member
        Supporting Member

        Joined:
        Mar 4, 2015
        Messages:
        4,280
        Oxbucks:
        $2,392
        Ratings:
        +3,052 / -187
        Latest polls mostly bad news for Scott. RCP is at 53-47.
         
      • Ancient Reptile

        Ancient Reptile Senior Member
        Supporting Member

        Joined:
        Mar 4, 2015
        Messages:
        4,280
        Oxbucks:
        $2,392
        Ratings:
        +3,052 / -187
        Source? Polls still show Manchin up 5
         
      • Back Alley Gator

        Back Alley Gator Well-Known Member
        Lifetime Member

        Joined:
        Jul 16, 2018
        Messages:
        403
        Oxbucks:
        $567
        Ratings:
        +669 / -17
        Amending my prediction to 52R at best.
         
      • alcoholica

        alcoholica Well-Known Member

        Joined:
        Jun 11, 2014
        Messages:
        11,139
        Oxbucks:
        $2,316
        Ratings:
        +9,277 / -337
        RCP, they have now moved TN to toss up despite good numbers for the Pub, and ND from likey pub to leans Pub.

        I think what's clear is that pollsters are comfortable saying, "well I wouldn't say we got it wrong. we should a shift right in the last week, but we can only report on what the people tell us."
         
        • alcoholica

          alcoholica Well-Known Member

          Joined:
          Jun 11, 2014
          Messages:
          11,139
          Oxbucks:
          $2,316
          Ratings:
          +9,277 / -337
          Nah, I'm thinking good news. Polls did this two years ago. Pinched towards the end, but never corrected far enough to reach the right conclusion.
           
        • Back Alley Gator

          Back Alley Gator Well-Known Member
          Lifetime Member

          Joined:
          Jul 16, 2018
          Messages:
          403
          Oxbucks:
          $567
          Ratings:
          +669 / -17
          I think its going to be Makers and Knob Hill early tonight so as to be asleep by 930. I don't have a good feeling about this at all. Not even a little bit.
           
        • alcoholica

          alcoholica Well-Known Member

          Joined:
          Jun 11, 2014
          Messages:
          11,139
          Oxbucks:
          $2,316
          Ratings:
          +9,277 / -337
          Is Knob Hill the Wal-Mart generic, or have you already started drinking?

          [​IMG]
           
        • Back Alley Gator

          Back Alley Gator Well-Known Member
          Lifetime Member

          Joined:
          Jul 16, 2018
          Messages:
          403
          Oxbucks:
          $567
          Ratings:
          +669 / -17
          Shiit....ya got me. Been at work 1 hr and Im already drunk as fvvck. Pile on the abuse. I deserve it for that. *embarassed*
           
        • Gator Fever

          Gator Fever Senior Member

          Joined:
          Jun 13, 2014
          Messages:
          21,341
          Oxbucks:
          $2,226
          Ratings:
          +6,256 / -130
          losing faith?
           
        • Gator Fever

          Gator Fever Senior Member

          Joined:
          Jun 13, 2014
          Messages:
          21,341
          Oxbucks:
          $2,226
          Ratings:
          +6,256 / -130
        • Back Alley Gator

          Back Alley Gator Well-Known Member
          Lifetime Member

          Joined:
          Jul 16, 2018
          Messages:
          403
          Oxbucks:
          $567
          Ratings:
          +669 / -17
          Yes. I have no faith in the average american voter. Never have. Never will. Think about how stupid the average person you meet is...now remember that half of them are more stupid than that.
           
          • Gatoravatara

            Gatoravatara Protaganista

            Joined:
            Jun 18, 2014
            Messages:
            12,751
            Oxbucks:
            $735
            Ratings:
            +1,996 / -549
            Wow this is pretty brutal. But you might have a point.
             
          • Detroitgator

            Detroitgator General Factotum
            Lifetime Member

            Joined:
            Jul 15, 2014
            Messages:
            12,435
            Oxbucks:
            $3,860
            Ratings:
            +10,438 / -32
            So, EXACTLY like 2016? ;) But I’m with ya
             
          • Gator Fever

            Gator Fever Senior Member

            Joined:
            Jun 13, 2014
            Messages:
            21,341
            Oxbucks:
            $2,226
            Ratings:
            +6,256 / -130
            My final prediction for the toss up (5% or closer) polling averages Senate Races and number of seats held. RCP poll averages at this time included:

            Nevada (Tie): Dem wins and flips seat (I look at this as almost 50/50)
            Arizona (.2% R lead): Rep wins
            Missouri (.6% R lead): Rep wins and flips seat
            Indiana (1.3% D lead): Rep wins and flips seat
            Florida (2.4% D lead): Rep wins and flips seat (I look at this as almost 50/50)
            Montana (3.3% D lead): Rep wins and flips seat (I look at this as almost 50/50)
            West Virginia (5% D lead): Dem wins
            Tennessee (5.2% R lead): Rep wins

            Other races with big polling differences: Michigan (8.3% D lead), Ohio (roughly 7.5% D lead) and Minnesota special election (roughly 7% Dem lead) etc:

            Dakota flips to Reps and I am thinking we might get a big surprise possibly where one of these real big underdogs (Michigan, Ohio and Minnesota special election) outperform the polls a lot and might possibly pull the real big upset.

            Balance after election: 55 Reps
             
            #98 Gator Fever, Nov 6, 2018
            Last edited: Nov 6, 2018
            • alcoholica

              alcoholica Well-Known Member

              Joined:
              Jun 11, 2014
              Messages:
              11,139
              Oxbucks:
              $2,316
              Ratings:
              +9,277 / -337
              haha, I knew what you meant. But more importantly, I didn't know what I was going to drink tonight while I watch the results. Now I know I'll be drinking some Knob Creek Single Barrel.
               
              • NOLAGATOR

                NOLAGATOR Deep Behind Enemy Lines

                Joined:
                Aug 20, 2018
                Messages:
                1,532
                Oxbucks:
                $1,267
                Ratings:
                +1,279 / -132
                I guess I am the Sunshine Pumper.

                GOP 55-56 Senators

                GOP holds the House

                DEMs go full Chernobyl and meltdown own


                I have the same feeling I had 2016.
                 

                Share This Page

                The Box

                Help

                You don't have the necessary permissions to use the chat.

                  1. There are currently no users chatting.
                    • About Us

                      Our community sprung up when the Gatorsports message board was shut down in the summer of 2014. We pride ourselves on offering Gator-biased, yet critical discussion among people of all different backgrounds. We are working every day to make sure our community is the best Gator message board you will find.
                    • Like us on Facebook

                    • Buy us a Zima!

                      The management works very hard to make sure the community is running the best software, best designs, and all the other bells and whistles. Care to buy us a non-alcoholic Zima? We'd really appreciate it! Just click the "Donate" tab at the top of the page.