Predicting Mullen's UF results based on his MSU results

[SECund2nun]

Mullen's first season has been great. I was thrilled with the hire and expect Mullen to win national championships here, but his first season even surprised me. Though if you translate his results at MSU and project UF results based off of that it should be no surprise.

In his final 8 seasons at MSU Mullen averaged 8.25 wins per season. Had he coached the bowl game last year 3 of his final 4 seasons at MSU would have resulted in 9 or more wins.

Compare the MSU football program vs the UF football program:

*Average in state talent pool vs the best talent pool. Also the state of Mississippi gets raided by Bama, LSU, and Ole Miss was paying off recruits during Mullen's time there (and their budget is much larger). Ole Miss is also the top dog U of the state. He had to settle for reject recruits. UF gets to pick the best recruits, is the best funded Florida program, and has equal prestige to FSU and UM, if not more.
*MSU has no prestige and little ability to attract quality OOS recruits. UF is the opposite.
*MSU has one of the smallest football budgets in the SEC. UF is near the top. This especially affects the quality of his staff
*Mullen walked into MSU with no HC experience. He walked into UF as a seasoned veteran.
*He has a QB dependent system. At UF he will be able to consistently reel in 4 star and 5 star QB recruits. At MSU he had to settle for under the radar 3 stars.

I would say MSU is almost as hard of a job as Vandy. MSU has a little more in state talent to work with (even as back up options) but the SEC West has been much better than the East since 2009.

8.25 wins per season at MSU= ??? wins per season at UF. It's night and day.

 

[URGatorBait]

Welcome to the board.

Get an avatar, or you may not like the one Ox gives ya

 

[Tay Bang]

Mullen's first season has been great. I was thrilled with the hire and expect Mullen to win national championships here, but his first season even surprised me. Though if you translate his results at MSU and project UF results based off of that it should be no surprise.

In his final 8 seasons at MSU Mullen averaged 8.25 wins per season. Had he coached the bowl game last year 3 of his final 4 seasons at MSU would have resulted in 9 or more wins.

Compare the MSU football program vs the UF football program:

*Average in state talent pool vs the best talent pool. Also the state of Mississippi gets raided by Bama, LSU, and Ole Miss was paying off recruits during Mullen's time there (and their budget is much larger). Ole Miss is also the top dog U of the state. He had to settle for reject recruits. UF gets to pick the best recruits, is the best funded Florida program, and has equal prestige to FSU and UM, if not more.
*MSU has no prestige and little ability to attract quality OOS recruits. UF is the opposite.
*MSU has one of the smallest football budgets in the SEC. UF is near the top. This especially affects the quality of his staff
*Mullen walked into MSU with no HC experience. He walked into UF as a seasoned veteran.
*He has a QB dependent system. At UF he will be able to consistently reel in 4 star and 5 star QB recruits. At MSU he had to settle for under the radar 3 stars.

I would say MSU is almost as hard of a job as Vandy. MSU has a little more in state talent to work with (even as back up options) but the SEC West has been much better than the East since 2009.

8.25 wins per season at MSU= ??? wins per season at UF. It's night and day.

Solid first post.

 

[UFHealthGator]

*He has a QB dependent system. At UF he will be able to consistently reel in 4 star and 5 star QB recruits. At MSU he had to settle for under the radar 3 stars.

I would say MSU is almost as hard of a job as Vandy. MSU has a little more in state talent to work with (even as back up options) but the SEC West has been much better than the East since 2009.

8.25 wins per season at MSU= ??? wins per season at UF. It's night and day.

In before we get to hear Mullen's record against ranked teams at MSU and his losing record against his conference....

I highlighted the only thing I am not sure about. Will he be able to improve on his recruiting at UF? And no I am not saying have a better class at UF than he did at MSU. I want to see an improvement in our recruiting to put us in the top 10 teams in talent. That is yet to be seen.

 

[chferg]

In before we get to hear Mullen's record against ranked teams at MSU and his losing record against his conference....

I highlighted the only thing I am not sure about. Will he be able to improve on his recruiting at UF? And no I am not saying have a better class at UF than he did at MSU. I want to see an improvement in our recruiting to put us in the top 10 teams in talent. That is yet to be seen.

Recruiting has and will be the question till he proves us wrong. Cutting ties with a few guys and adding a better recruiter on staff might pay dividends in this matter

Looking at you English. Poor recruiting effort and safety play is lacking

 

[stephenPE]

8.25 wins per season at MSU= ??? wins per season at UF. It's night and day.

Someone has already proven that 6.25 of those wins were gimmes. This is just fool's gold. He will be like his mentor, come in gangbusters and then fade away with med. problems...............JUST KIDDING new guy. Great comments in this thread. He played in the west which was bad ass the whole time. LSU proved yesterday what playing tough games can do for you. Dan is MUCH sharper than some of his harshest critics but they were battered spouse syndrome folks for the last decade. I get it. Welcome to chatter and join our "fun"........

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Extrapolating results from MSU to UF is unsound. The analyses of data from two disparate systems with a myriad of differing variables will yield uncorrelated data and incoherent results.
Illuminating results may be obtained by contrasting results within the same closed system (i.e. MSU) while varying only a single variable (head coach).

In laymen terms: Compare MSU's records prior to Mullen and contemporaneus to Mullen. I think you will find those results much more enlightening.

 

[Omar's Coming Yo!]

Mullen's first season has been great. I was thrilled with the hire and expect Mullen to win national championships here, but his first season even surprised me. Though if you translate his results at MSU and project UF results based off of that it should be no surprise.

In his final 8 seasons at MSU Mullen averaged 8.25 wins per season. Had he coached the bowl game last year 3 of his final 4 seasons at MSU would have resulted in 9 or more wins.

Compare the MSU football program vs the UF football program:

*Average in state talent pool vs the best talent pool. Also the state of Mississippi gets raided by Bama, LSU, and Ole Miss was paying off recruits during Mullen's time there (and their budget is much larger). Ole Miss is also the top dog U of the state. He had to settle for reject recruits. UF gets to pick the best recruits, is the best funded Florida program, and has equal prestige to FSU and UM, if not more.
*MSU has no prestige and little ability to attract quality OOS recruits. UF is the opposite.
*MSU has one of the smallest football budgets in the SEC. UF is near the top. This especially affects the quality of his staff
*Mullen walked into MSU with no HC experience. He walked into UF as a seasoned veteran.
*He has a QB dependent system. At UF he will be able to consistently reel in 4 star and 5 star QB recruits. At MSU he had to settle for under the radar 3 stars.

I would say MSU is almost as hard of a job as Vandy. MSU has a little more in state talent to work with (even as back up options) but the SEC West has been much better than the East since 2009.

8.25 wins per season at MSU= ??? wins per season at UF. It's night and day.

Good to see you after all these years at gatorcountry

 

[BMF]

Good to see you after all these years at gatorcountry

He's a swampgas refugee!! Welcome to the board! I hope you find it welcoming, comical, and enjoyable! (and get an avatar!!)

 

[Gatordiddy]

In laymen terms: ....

Thankz fer brakin dat doun fer me Threat
Whut wood we doo wifout u?

 

[Zambo]

I measure coaches by height.

 

[Slevin]

Let’s say you open your own wine store in South Slope in Brooklyn. Not easy to get to by train. Doesn’t attract quality tourists. The neighborhood isn’t upper middle class, it’s lower income. So your store is stocked with sure sell items at price points your clientele can afford and want. You will have a couple of high end items, maybe a couple bottles of Opus One, maybe a bottle or two of Hennessy Privelege, but they will never sell. Maybe a bottle a year. You’re bread and butter is boxed Franzia and $3.99 Gato Negro Chilean varietals. You know what will get the job done. You aren’t competing with Total Wine in Long Island, even though some local clientele will drive out there just for their ridiculous price points.

And yet, even being a small shop in South Slope, that clearly cant compete price wise with Total Wine, there will still be people who walk in, look at an item they saw for 5 bucks less at Total, and let you know about it. “hey man, wow. This is expensive here! I can get this for ___ at Total!” They take none of the obvious into consideration. They leave with the simple minded conclusion that you’re simply not competitive enough.

You keep chugging away. The store is consistently successful with what it can be successful with.

THEN! you get a lucky break. A big wine store in midtown manhattan has not renewed its lease. They’re looking to sell their inventory and get out. You go to make an offer, more than the asking for their liquor license and space, and it just so happens to be the “I can get this cheaper at Total” guy!

“Hah!” He says. “You want my big store in Manhattan? What do you know about owning a big store? With high end inventory? There’s no way you can be successful here! You sold one Opus One in 2 years!!!”

“Well, I took over a project. A store with little capital and not much profit over the last 50 years before my arrival”, the South Slope owner says. “I turned it into a profit machine, constantly breaking monthly profit goals, larger buy ins on case drops to lower my margines, and grew clientele 75% in 5 years. Your store and that store aren’t the same, and honestly can’t be compared the same. The money is different, the needs are different, the products are different. Your store is a NY staple, with customers from all over the world coming to the city to shop at. You have celebrities that live above it. If I can make that store successful, I can take this store to places it’s never been before”

“Ha!” Says the Manhattan store owner. “Sorry, but you’ll never be more than a Franzia box man, and my ignorance on adaptation and growth proves that!”

See how dumb of an argument that is?

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Thankz fer brakin dat doun fer me Threat
Whut wood we doo wifout u?

Indubitably.

 

[Gatordiddy]

$3.99 Gato Negro

 

[Zambo]

Let’s say you open your own wine store in South Slope in Brooklyn. Not easy to get to by train. Doesn’t attract quality tourists. The neighborhood isn’t upper middle class, it’s lower income. So your store is stocked with sure sell items at price points your clientele can afford and want. You will have a couple of high end items, maybe a couple bottles of Opus One, maybe a bottle or two of Hennessy Privelege, but they will never sell. Maybe a bottle a year. You’re bread and butter is boxed Franzia and $3.99 Gato Negro Chilean varietals. You know what will get the job done. You aren’t competing with Total Wine in Long Island, even though some local clientele will drive out there just for their ridiculous price points.

And yet, even being a small shop in South Slope, that clearly cant compete price wise with Total Wine, there will still be people who walk in, look at an item they saw for 5 bucks less at Total, and let you know about it. “hey man, wow. This is expensive here! I can get this for ___ at Total!” They take none of the obvious into consideration. They leave with the simple minded conclusion that you’re simply not competitive enough.

You keep chugging away. The store is consistently successful with what it can be successful with.

THEN! you get a lucky break. A big wine store in midtown manhattan has not renewed its lease. They’re looking to sell their inventory and get out. You go to make an offer, more than the asking for their liquor license and space, and it just so happens to be the “I can get this cheaper at Total” guy!

“Hah!” He says. “You want my big store in Manhattan? What do you know about owning a big store? With high end inventory? There’s no way you can be successful here! You sold one Opus One in 2 years!!!”

“Well, I took over a project. A store with little capital and not much profit over the last 50 years before my arrival”, the South Slope owner says. “I turned it into a profit machine, constantly breaking monthly profit goals, larger buy ins on case drops to lower my margines, and grew clientele 75% in 5 years. Your store and that store aren’t the same, and honestly can’t be compared the same. The money is different, the needs are different, the products are different. Your store is a NY staple, with customers from all over the world coming to the city to shop at. You have celebrities that live above it. If I can make that store successful, I can take this store to places it’s never been before”

“Ha!” Says the Manhattan store owner. “Sorry, but you’ll never be more than a Franzia box man, and my ignorance on adaptation and growth proves that!”

See how dumb of an argument that is?

Nothing like a good wine store analogy to drive the point home to a board full of rednecks.

 

[Gatordiddy]

Nothing like a good wine store analogy to drive to point home to a board full of rednecks.

No idea what y’all are talkin’ ‘bout.

 

[Slevin]

I get the analogy, but...why was the guy who owned a big wine store in Manhattan shopping in your little store in Brooklyn, and complaining that he could get something cheaper at Total Wine? Couldn't he just get whatever he wants at cost, from his distributor? I mean, if access to cheap alcohol isn't one of the benefits of being a liquor store owner, I guess I should abandon my lifelong dream of marrying the daughter of one. :(

Could have just been in the neighborhood. And just about every store owner has been to the Total in LI to see it since it was such a heated debate for them to open in general.

 

[PaterLacerta]

 

[gatormandan]

I get the analogy, but...why was the guy who owned a big wine store in Manhattan shopping in your little store in Brooklyn, and complaining that he could get something cheaper at Total Wine? Couldn't he just get whatever he wants at cost, from his distributor? I mean, if access to cheap alcohol isn't one of the benefits of being a liquor store owner, I guess I should abandon my lifelong dream of marrying the daughter of one. :(

Well, I cant speak about the alcohol business but I can about the gun business. I had a small shop that didn't do a lot of volume. I am a dealer just like the big boys. I did not pay the same prices as the big boys. I actually aggravated many of my suppliers because of my small orders. They would always question me with "is that all?" at the end of pretty much ever order. I never got any specials and could never buy guns that were marked "call for availability" or "allocated item". All the while the big boys are ordering hundreds of guns and accessories every time they ordered and would receive deep discounts and free guns and other perks. Many people could sell guns for less than I paid. So, its definitely not an across the board pricing thing for dealers. I can only assume its the same everywhere.

 

[T REX]

I like what Mullen is doing. Huge game in Jax coming up. I think it is winnable. Go read some threads after Mac started 6-0.

Cautious enthusiasm.