- Jan 6, 2015
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Came across this and was a good read, thought I'd share, especially for those among us still in a panic that we don't have a lot of 4* and 5* commits and it is already early June. I edited it down, but you can get more at the main link.
Recruiting Moneyball: Avoid these things
Recruiting Moneyball: Avoid these things
1- The Rogue Recruiter
Some assistant coaches love to run up numbers. It helps their career and current and future employment to say “hey, I signed these three guys†and that’s a positive thing for sure. What happens often, though, is that in a quest to get their personal signing numbers up, the assistant will oversell a prospect that really isn’t a fit or in some cases (despite his recruiting ranking) isn’t very good at all. Sure, it looks great to say “coach X signed eight players this cycle†but in 2-3 years when half of those eight have transferred because they aren’t good enough, three are aspiring special teams players only and only one is sniffing the two-deep, it’s a different story.
Also, I will caution that this isn’t relevant to ranking. Six of the eight very well could be ranked three or four stars by the recruiting industry, but the bigger question a staff as a whole must ask- can he play here? That takes more than the effort of one assistant coach.
I’ve found that the more a program is organized in recruiting, the less this happens. I’ve also come to realize that despite the fact that recruiter rankings, like we have at 247Sports, are a very useful tool when rating recruiters (most years, the guys that are at the top do indeed sign elite talent that pans out), that the reality of being a good recruiter is who a coach signs that contributes at a high level.
For example, if you have a coach that signs seven prospects and five of them are in the high three or four star range, but only two of them can ultimately play dead in a movie and then you have a coach that goes into a talent pocket and pulls three guys rated two or three stars that end up playing in the NFL and starting multiple seasons- which coach is the more valuable recruiter when it comes to stacking your roster with talent?
The perception on signing day- which is definitely important in college football- will be positive- but the ultimate goal is to win on Saturday as many times as you can. If you take care of winning, everything else takes care of itself.
2- The Inflated Offer Guy
This doesn’t happen as often as you may think, but there are times when prospects run up phantom offers from major programs (none are committable) and it causes a ripple effect where other schools jump in and recruit said prospect.
The program that ends up with this prospect, more often than not, gets quite a disappointing door prize.
3- The 7-on-7 and camp hero at quarterback
You can have a great roster, but if you have issues at the most important position on the field, you are going to have problems.
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Every cycle, there are plenty of quarterbacks who look great in camps and 7-on-7. That’s not football, though.
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A competitive mentality can be built over time by playing competitive sports. Keep in mind, you don’t have but 10-15 actual football games you play each year. That’s not a high number and 7-on-7 is not a sport, so the mental end, including competitive toughness, is paramount.
You can always develop a guy that is a year-round quarterback who is great at 7-on-7, don’t get me wrong. But it’s going to take work and in some cases magic. Go with the guy that knows how to compete in sports over the guy that wins the underwear olympics in all cases.
4- Staff rivalries
For the most part, head coaches and recruiting coordinators in college football do a good job of making their own evaluations as a staff and building their recruiting board accordingly.
The goal is to get the very best players you can get on your roster. Period.
5- The guy that’s married to a position...and won’t get divorced
Let’s face it. High school coaches play players at positions to help them win games. There are great athletes across the country that are elite at certain spots at the high school level, but everyone knows that in college they project best elsewhere.
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It doesn’t matter if he’s a great high school quarterback who is a sure-fire NFL draft pick if he would only play receiver or cornerback. If he wants to be a quarterback, is militant about playing there and he can’t play that position at a high level for your program, don’t take him. It’s not worth the risk and more often than not, it’s a transfer, and thus a roster hole, waiting to happen. You will either end up with a player at a position where he’s average as a bowl of grits, a transfer out or an unhappy camper at a new spot.
If his heart isn’t into it, he’s not going to buy in and do what it takes to play the position you need him to play anyway. It’s a waste of time. There are plenty of prospects out there who will play any position on the field to worry about a guy that can’t let go of high school.
6- The early, early commitment
The bottom line here is this- you are better off waiting until a prospect develops physically and adjusts to higher speeds and collisions rather than trying to guess about a prospect’s development 3-5 years before he steps foot on your campus.
7- Filling up too early
Along these same lines, a program can take too many early commits from prospects that they could easily get a week before signing day. In some ways, you can build momentum with a bunch of early commits and if you get them from no-brainer, top tier guys on your board, more power to you. But, as Texas found out, filling up early is not always the best option. We saw the Longhorns load up with the alleged “top talent from Texas†in junior day after junior day under Mack Brown. That worked well for a while when Texas was competing for championships, but over time we saw that the staffs at Baylor, TCU and elsewhere were able to build their own programs to a high level simply by laying back and taking advantage of the Longhorns’ haste.
You can also back yourself into a corner with numbers by doing this. Despite early recruiting rankings and an accelerated calendar, the senior riser still exists and in some cases in abundance. There are players who will be better after their senior seasons than the early commits you took. You need to have a spot for these guys, so be very judicious in terms of who you take. ... Each spot on the roster can be filled with a quality prospect as long as you have the flexibility, knowledge, contacts and resourcefulness to make it happen.
Bottom Line
Today’s recruiting climate makes it tough to navigate at times. All of these potential pitfalls are easy to avoid if you set out to make sure you avoid them, have a plan in place and execute. It’s just like anything in football or life.