Saudi oil tankers hit by ‘sabotage attack’ amid Iran standoff

Discussion in 'Politics' started by g8tr72, May 13, 2019.

  1. Detroitgator

    Detroitgator Well-Known Member
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    They are pinched hard for sure, but it's not like they've shut off the world and people wouldn't see a truly unruly mob of unhappy citizens either... still plenty of daily flights between DXB and IKA too, so I don't think it's that bad, but who knows... things don't happen linearly, they go from flash to bang pretty quickly in real life. That said, I agree, to attack things directly just does not pass the sniff test when their MO has been 180 from that for 40 years now.
     
    • gatorev12

      gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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      Nah...they have WAY too much to lose if the start attacking oil shipments in the Gulf to frame Iran.

      They would love Iran to get knocked back a peg; but there's other ways they could do it that would have less long-term risks.
       
    • gatorev12

      gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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      China has nothing to gain by a spike in oil prices though. It's harmful to their domestic economy and to the intl economy of their trading partners. All their geopolitical moves are premised on "what's the potential gain/damage to our economy?"as their first question of order.
       
    • g8tr72

      g8tr72 Well-Known Member
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    • Detroitgator

      Detroitgator Well-Known Member
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      Yes, that's why I said "possible" but not "probable"
       
    • g8tr72

      g8tr72 Well-Known Member
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      Boom.


       
      • Spurdog98

        Spurdog98 Preston Brooks

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        Well.......................WTF are we going to do about it?
         
        • Gator By Marriage

          Gator By Marriage A convert to Gatorism
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          That wasn't the question. You said "there are only 3 actors who have something to gain by the possibility of war between Iran and a US-led coalition" I believe Israel too has something to gain. I do agree that the risk of getting caught probably precludes them trying to do this and make it look like Iran is to blame.
           
        • NOLAGATOR

          NOLAGATOR Deep Behind Enemy Lines
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          I would not go to war...YET

          But if most of the Free World puts the clamps on them...Their econmy will hit rock bottom...I could see another revolution.
           
          • Detroitgator

            Detroitgator Well-Known Member
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            Praying Mantis II
             
            • NOLAGATOR

              NOLAGATOR Deep Behind Enemy Lines
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              ???
               
            • Detroitgator

              Detroitgator Well-Known Member
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              Google Operation Praying Mantis... I’m guessing we might American flag all boats in the Gulf again too
               
            • Gulfstream

              Gulfstream zzzzzzzzzzz
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              Chit finna get real.
               
            • gatorev12

              gatorev12 Well-Known Member

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              You're right, I phrased that poorly.

              Objectively, there are other actors who could benefit from Iran being knocked down. China and Israel come to mind; Qatar another.

              The risk/reward ratio heavily disfavors those three from acting if we're taking means and opportunity into account instead of purely motive.

              Iranian hardliners have long been wanting to spoil for a war--thinking that they have a superior regional position than we do via their proxies' ability to make life a mess for the world economy (which would affect us more than them) and thinking that though they would suffer heavily in a conflict...we'd eventually wash our hands of the ME and they'd have free reign to rebuild it along their lines of thinking. There's not much risk there since Iran is already isolated from the world economy...and the reward would very much be worth it to them. They have forces who could pull this off and multiple motives for why.

              Saudi and the Gulf Kingdoms have a lot to gain in regional/global religious influence if they win their cold war vs Iran; but the risks are high too. I don't doubt hardliners there value their religion over common sense, but these types of operations would be hard to pull off without us finding out about it. The most capable military are the Emiritis and a substantial number of them are paid contractors from Western countries. Extremely doubtful the Saudis could pull off a sophisticated operation like this. The backlash from the world would be immense if they get caught. Look at how damaging the Saudi journalist episode was for them--this would be 10x worse.

              Finally, Russia: they have the forces capable of doing this and it actually solves more problems than it creates. Most people would assume Iranian involvement, oil skyrockets (benefiting them), Iran would be distracted from their settlements in western Syria, and even if caught...no one is going to physically attack them for it (the ships were registered to Panama and Marshall Islands..not a US or NATO flagged country).
               
              • Spurdog98

                Spurdog98 Preston Brooks

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                Yeah..............well...they all hate Trump and thus the U.S and so I wouldn't wait for that to happen. Sorry for the skepticism but it's warranted.
                 
                • itsgr82bag8r

                  itsgr82bag8r Political Forum Fire Starter
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                  There's already a large increase of US flagged vessels in the Persian Gulf as a result of the recent uptick in offshore oil production all up & down the eastern coastline. Many previously cold-stacked US vessels were reactivated recently & are being sent over. Many more to come.
                   
                • Gator By Marriage

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                  I confess to not having kept track of the vessels who have been attacked; has it thus far been flag of convenience shipping ( i.e. Panama, Liberia, etc.)? I would hope that if a US or say a UK flagged vessel is attacked that there will be a more immediate and vigorous response.
                   
                • itsgr82bag8r

                  itsgr82bag8r Political Forum Fire Starter
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                  I believe that to be the case. The vessels I’m referring to are oil field support type, not tankers.
                   
                • Gator By Marriage

                  Gator By Marriage A convert to Gatorism
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                  I used to keep up with this stuff (had to); are there any US flagged super tankers any more?
                   
                • Detroitgator

                  Detroitgator Well-Known Member
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                  No, I mean there have been times where the US has put ALL friendly nation ships transiting those waters officially under US flag

                  Update: it was for Kuwait under Operation Earnest Will in 80’s. Navy cannot escort non-US flagged vessels so we put them under US flag for the transit
                   
                  #100 Detroitgator, Jun 13, 2019
                  Last edited: Jun 13, 2019

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