Space Flight Updates - Russia pullingout of ISS?

ThreatMatrix

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Scott Manley did a good job of explaining the Astra failure. Also some good video of the power slide from the other angle. It looks like the rocket tried to take part of the launch pad with it.


Rockets launch with a TWR typically between 1.25 to 1.5. 1.6 or so is optimal. Higher than that and you are wasting power that could be used putting more payload into orbit (or remove an engine and lighten the rocket). Elon is shooting for 1.5 with Starship.
Astra launched with a TWR of 1.25 but with the engine malfunctioning it was closer to 1.0 causing the rocket to essentially hover until enough fuel burned off and the rocket become light enough to accelerate.

Interesting to see the size of this rocket. There's a photo with a human to scale. Companre that with the ants seen milling around a Super Heavy booster.
 
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Back Alley Gator

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I am...skeptical...of the booster catching strategy....but what do I know? Nothing! lol. I can easily see a RUD taking out a section of that tower. Maybe several times.
 

ThreatMatrix

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This is pretty cool. SpaceX Cargo Dragon docking with the ISS in time-lapse with Blue Danube playing. You'll recognize the music from the greatest Sci-fi film ever made.

Interesting to see the approach. Dragon starts in a lower orbit at the same inclination as the ISS. It carefully and slowly speeds up to raise it's orbit so that it is just ahead of the station. Then maneuvers in (from a slightly higher orbit).
 

ThreatMatrix

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Been a while. Let's go around the horn and see what's up:

Lucy is on it's way to explore "trojan" asteroids locked in the L4 and L5 orbits of Jupiter. Scientists are excited about exploring these asteroids because they are believed to be made of the primordial stuff of the Universe. Just to be cool the satellite is carrying diamonds so they can say "Lucy in the sky with Diamonds". It's had problems with one of the solar panels but apparently not enough to hurt the mission. Just another example of why solar sucks no matter where in the universe you try to use it.

SLS is now fully stacked in the VAB. Soon it will be rolled out for a full wet dress rehearsal. Then back to the VAB for final checkout. Hopefully we will see Artemis 1 launch for an uncrewed trip around the moon in December or January. February or March.

Starliner's final demo mission has been delayed once again and is now shooting for late next year. They are still researching the valve problem that scrubbed the mission earlier this summer. Fortunately SpaceX has been filling in for Starliner and shuttling crew to and from the ISS.
 
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ThreatMatrix

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SpaceX
Legal Battles:
HLS is still on hold due to Bezo's challanges. NASA has defended it's choice but fights are still happening in congress. I don't how soon this will resolved. The Biden administration is less pro SpaceX and more pro old-space so no telling how this ends. They want NASA to select a second provider but won't give NASA the money to pay for it.

Starlink faces challenges from just about anybody who has ever thought of launching an internet constellation. The effort is led by, no surprise, Jeff Bezos. Again it's weak claim but when lawyers get involved common sense often goes out the window.

Environmental Review has been completed by the FAA with regards to SpaceX's plans for Starbase (Boca Chica). The FAA is all in however a 30 day public comment period (ends Nov1) is happening as we speak. Not likely anything will change but it will delay things until everything is cleared up. Could take up to 6 months and SpaceX will not be able to launch from Starbase until then.

Starbase Progress
All the major structures are in place.
Orbital tank Farm: The massive tanks and cryo shells have all been installed and final work continues.
Orbital Tower: The catching mechanism "chopsticks" mounted today. The tower now has all it's major components.
Orbital launch Pad work continues - no clue what's going on.

Starship Progress
Most of the focus has been on the launch pad.
Booster 4 has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for launch pad completion. However today installation of engine shields was seen.
Ship 20: TPS tiles have been cleaned up. A preburner firing test was ran earlier in the weeks. As I type this a Static Fire test is in progress. We expect them to fire a Vacuum Engine for the first time tonight.

Booster 5 is almost completely stacked. And ship 21 is also being stacked. The TPS tiles on ship 21 look much cleaner.

NASA is going to use a special plane to watch the reentry of ship 20. They've said that will be in March. Whether or not that means B4S20 won't launch until then or not we don't know. But given how that SpaceX can't do anything until the Environmental review is wrapped up that may be the NET date.
 

deuce

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I'm tired of the Politics and special interest groups trying to stop or slow down Elon.

We need to all get inline with spaceX
 

ThreatMatrix

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NASA just said first launch window for SLS is Feb 12th.
Elon tweeted that "if all goes well" Starship could launch next month. But that's Elon time so maybe December at best.
 

deuce

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Getting a little restless.

Need some hot gas show!
 

ThreatMatrix

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Watched whatever that capsule was coming down about half an hour ago
Dragon Crew 2 I'm guessing. Crew 3 is suppose to go back up tomorrow.

Getting a little restless.
Need some hot gas show!
Gonna be a while I suspect. Even at SpaceX speed it takes time to build an orbital launch complex. And they're still working on the booster. But we may get a six engine Starship static fire as early as tomorrow. Or not. They've been saying that for weeks.
A booster static fire would be exciting. Especially if they fire all 29. But I'd be shocked to see that before the end of the year. I'm betting March before we see an orbital attempt.
 

ThreatMatrix

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****ing Russians
The commies tested an anti-satellite weapon last week that puts the ISS in peril. Other countries, including the US, have done similar tests but what makes this particularly outrageous is that they choose to destroy a satellite in a very used orbital range. The US and India did similar tests but the target satellites were in low orbits such that the debris burned up within weeks. China's test was at 800km which doesn't have a lot of traffic but as that stuff decays over decades it will pass through critical orbits. The fcvking Russians destroyed a satellite that f's up the range between 420-550km. This stretches from the orbit of the ISS to the orbits of internet satellites such as Starlink. The Russians are either very stupid or something worse.

****ing Bean Counters
The OIG released it's report on NASA's management of Artemis. Basically they aren't a fan. They believe NASA will be years late in delivering warm bodies to the moon. Among many things they site the use of cost-plus contracts and expendable designs as somewhat responsible and they lean heavy into COVID delays. But basically they laugh at NASA's estimates noting previous performance and a sever lack of accounting. They estimate the cost of each SLS launch at over $4B. That does not include the $20B development costs. I wonder how this is going to play out in public when NASA is throwing billion dollar rockets in the ocean while SpaceX is reusing 100 million dollar rockets.

Some Good News (SpaceX edition)

The FAA has said they will wrap up their environmental assessment by the end of the year. Elon says November will be for finishing the orbital launch facility, December for booster testing, and an orbital test as early as January. But add your Elon-Time factor as desired.

Some Weird News (SpaceX edition)

Elon let a tweet fly that generated more questions than answers. About development of Raptor 2 (an improved, clean version of Raptor 1) he said that a new engine, not named Raptor, will have to be developed to make humanity multi planetary. Immediately we wondered if that meant going back to square one with engine testing. It appears that they will continue with Raptor 2, which will presumably be built in the new Texas factory. So Raptor 2 will be used for cargo and Starlink deployment and fuel depots and the HLS moon missions. And probably even the first trips to Mars. So we don't know why the need for a new engine. Is it because of producibility? Elon often complains that manufacturing is the hardest part. Have they discovered some flaw in Raptor that makes it unacceptable. Or have they discovered a way to vastly improve the Raptor design. You can't get much more ISP out of methane so maybe a huge boost in thrust? Or maybe they're going nuclear.

Some Good News (Dream Chaser edition)
Sierra Nevada (Space) received $1.4B in Series A funding. With that money they will be able to fast track crewed Dream Chaser to 2025. Crew Dream Chaser is part of Blue's Orbital Reef Station concept. Since Cargo Dream Chaser will be docking with the ISS so will Crew be capable. Which means it will also be capable of docking with Axiom's commercial station. Lifting Bodies rock.

Some Good News (Astra edition)

Astra, the little rocket company that gave us the walking rocket, has successfully launched a dummy payload to orbit as part of a demo before launching an actual payload. Good fer them.

Some Good News (Rocket Lab edition)
After a successful satellite deployment Rocket Lab stationed a helicopter in the recovery zone offshore to track and observe the descending stage. In the future RL will catch the first stage with the helicopter as it descends under parachute.
 

deuce

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I'm with you 100% about the Russians!
 

ThreatMatrix

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SpaceX did a Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for Boca Chica several years ago when the plan was to launch Falcon 9's from there. When the focus shifted to Star Ship they applied for an Environmental Assessment (EA) that is a significantly shorter process. The EA was supposed to be completed in October, then December, now March.
In the mean time SpaceX has restarted the build of the Star Ship launch complex at the Cape. Some wondered about the timing.
Now it appears that SpaceX may not get away with just an EA. An EIS may be required, a process that can take up to two years. Recently Elon was asked point blank about what the FAA might do and he said that he didn't know.
It's not like SpaceX is quite ready to launch anyway. They are still putting finishing touches on the launch pad. And it was revealed that B4/S20, the booster and ship, that have been going through some testing will not fly.
People in the know are becoming less positive that the FAA will allow a launch from Boca this year.
 

Back Alley Gator

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SpaceX did a Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for Boca Chica several years ago when the plan was to launch Falcon 9's from there. When the focus shifted to Star Ship they applied for an Environmental Assessment (EA) that is a significantly shorter process. The EA was supposed to be completed in October, then December, now March.
In the mean time SpaceX has restarted the build of the Star Ship launch complex at the Cape. Some wondered about the timing.
Now it appears that SpaceX may not get away with just an EA. An EIS may be required, a process that can take up to two years. Recently Elon was asked point blank about what the FAA might do and he said that he didn't know.
It's not like SpaceX is quite ready to launch anyway. They are still putting finishing touches on the launch pad. And it was revealed that B4/S20, the booster and ship, that have been going through some testing will not fly.
People in the know are becoming less positive that the FAA will allow a launch from Boca this year.

Cocksucking bastards.
 

ThreatMatrix

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Fck it's been a while. What's happening.

The Ruskies: Despite threatening to pull out of the ISS it looks like they are gonna stay for the time being. Russia has been trying to get out of the ISS for a while. But it was lucrative when we needed to buy seats on Soyez to get there. Russia operates one very important module that controls the attitude of the station and helps in collision avoidance. As well as boosting the orbit. However the ISS is high enough that it would take 2-3 years to de-orbit and we do have other ways of boosting so we're probably good until the Axiom station becomes operational. Axiom needs the ISS during construction.

Oneweb, a European mega constellation provider planned on using Arianespace (French) as the launch provider but they use Soyuz rockets because they are French and of course they do. Needless to say that that got cancelled and Oneweb has now chosen SpaceX as their launch provider.

We do still use the Russian RD-180 engines on Atlas 5 but back when Russia invaded Belarus/Crimea the US congress decreed that ULA should stop using RD-180's. Fortunately all the engines are stateside and ULA assures us that they are familiar enough with the engines that they can operate them. Incidentally that is the impetus for ULA discontinuing Atlas V and pivoting to the Atlas Centaur which of course uses Jeff Bezo's BE-4 engines which still aren't working but I digress.


SLS: As we speak the SLS megarocket is sitting on Launch pad 39A taking up room and delaying other flights. These last few days SLS should have demonstrated a WDR however it has been plagued with simple valve problems on the billion dollar launcher that will only be used 3 times then replaced with another billion dollar launcher. After WDR the vehicle was to be moved back to the VAB for final checkout and arming of the self destruct and hopefully launch next month. But there is a traffic jam at the cape right now with other missions waiting for SLS to clear the launch complex.

Boca Chica: First problem. The FAA has, for the 4th time, delayed their report. And apparently no one knows which way it will go. There's a lot of politics involved in this, This administration is no friend to entrepreneurs/business/capitalism, ya know American values, and are all about the environment. Plus there are very powerful Senators who see SpaceX as a threat to their pork supply. And bad actors like Blue Origin throwing shade behind the scenes. If the FAA doesn't give approval in Boca then SpaceX will have to move everything to the Cape, which they have started to do, however it will probably delay things a good 9 months.
Even with FAA approval it's arguable whether or not SpaceX is even ready for a launch. They are still doing work on mechazilla. And we have yet to see a booster lifted by the chopsticks. SpaceX tested the hell out of the fuel farm and fuel loading though with booster4 and ship 20 which are now on their way to the scrap yard. B7 went through a full cryo test yesterday while on the launch table. However B7 is still lacking grid fins and engines. It's assumed that ship 24 will fly with booster 7. S24 is still at the production site getting TPS tiles and it also lacks engines. S24 was also seen seen with a cargo "slit" that will apparently shoot out Starlinks like frisbees.
SpaceX also disassembled the stabilization arms on the QD mechanism so it remains to be seen if that's a delete or a redesign.
 

deuce

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i have a bad feeling about the FAA Certification. You are dead on when you mention the anti SpaceX vibes from this Administration.

Let's go Brandon!
 

deuce

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Elon takes a swing for Twitter and hit's a liner in the gap!


I seriously have a man crush on this guy.

I wish he could run for President.
 

deuce

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FAA gives expected "OK", now just need some static fire test and launch license.

Kick the Tires and light the Fires!
 

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