Starship successfully blows up - what did we learn?

ThreatMatrix

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SpaceX has a lot of work to do.
The next hours and days will bring clarity so for now all we have is questions.

First, they needed a flame trench. They've always needed a flame trench. Todays launch blasted a yuge crater below the pad.
74x793c.png
Hard to believe that just water-deluge is going to solve that problem.

My biggest concern was that it clear the launch table. The booster is mounted very deep and the engine bells have very little clearance. For about 2 seconds the booster needs to go straight up. We know the booster lost 3 engines by the 15-second mark and we saw one helluva power slide off the pad. Did any engine bells hit the side of the table leading to engine out?

What were the causes of the other engine outs? If it was all debris then good.

Looks like at least one of two HPU's blew up. The hydraulic power units control the gimbling engines which would partly explain the lack of control however there were a lot of other factors. The HPU's however have been replaced with electric units on the next boosters.

It looks the interstage, the top part of the booster that supports the Starship deformed during accent. Starship looks crooked in relation to the booster about 10-20 seconds into flight. Very unstable. Engines out, HPU's on fire and a crushed interstage but the thing somehow managed to make it through MaxQ.

The Starship is held to the booster with three clamps. Unknown if those clamps are hydraulically or electrically activated. But there is nothing that pushes Starship away. The booster is supposed to do a bit of a "flick" to release Starship. Despite the call out of "stage sep" I don't think it was trying to separate.

This combination of B7/S24 was already an iteration or two behind. Honestly think part of the reason they launched it was just to get it off the property.

SpaceX has three boosters and three ships waiting in the wings each with improvements.
B8/S25 - Booster 8 has been scrapped and S25 has TPS and fins. I don't think S25 flies next. (but I'm always wrong).
B9/S26 - Booster 9 has all the upgrades like electric gimbling and even more stringers - maybe the interstage doesn't crumble.
B10/S27. Booster 10 has even more stringers. S27 like S26 are without TPS, fins or a payload door.

I believe they will launch B9/S26 just to see if they can get to orbit*. And if that fails B10/S27. After that, they can work on whatever is next (hint: it may be a long time before they tackle reentry).

Stage 0 took a beating. Tank farm tanks have impressive dents. No telling what else took a hit. I think they might have to rethink a flame trench. I don't think a water deluge is enough. But we've got to be looking at 3-6 months before the next attempt to get the pad back ready. By then we may have totally redesigned boosters and ships.
 

Back Alley Gator

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Arent they building another super heavy launch complex at Canaveral? How long before that one is operational? They can blow one up, then while fixing it, launch from the other and blow it up. Lather rinse repeat....
 

Nalt

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Was this rocket supposed to blow up 4 minutes into it's flight?
 

ThreatMatrix

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Was this rocket supposed to blow up 4 minutes into it's flight?
Yes and no. In a way it was a guinea pig. The booster had been through a lot. It was a new design so it was first to get pressurized and cryo'd, Then it was the test bed for several different static fires including the explosion that seriously damaged the pad as well as it's own engines and shields*. The downcomer imploded during a test and to everyone's surprise they replaced it through a small opening on the side. They redesigned the QD. They replaced the HPU's with booster 9's because they decided to electric in the future. And if that wasn't enough it was used for testing stage 0. It really had been abused.

Ship 24 similarly went through a whole bunch of extra testing including pad tests. Many static fires that shook tiles off each time. Which they'd sometimes just glue back on. It may also be the first ship with autogenous pressurization which meant more testing. Really both booster and ship were pathfinders not flight hardware. The next booster in line has "100 improvements" according to Elon. And the next two starships have been built sans tiles, fins or a functioning payload door. Obviously they think it's going to take a few tries to even get to orbit.

I'm serious when I say they'd rather launch them and blow up over water than have to disassemble them. So they must have decided that as long as they had enough confidence they could clear the pad and get over water they would launch. Anything after that was gravy. In the mean time they collected invaluable data and getting through MaxQ** is a big milestone.

Bottom line is a don't think they expected it to get as far as it did. They wanted to get it out of the way, so they launched, and cleared the deck for pad upgrades before the real attempts.

*Speaking of shields, The Raptor 2 engines stick out past the circumference of the rocket body. I don't think that's the final design so they've got these kludgey cowls around the engines and just live with the bells sticking out. I think they'd love to change that. Maybe Raptor 2.5.
**MaxQ is a funny thing. If I get up and walk to the kitchen I'm going to hit a MaxQ at some point, It's half the product of air density and velocity squared. So no doubt they hit A maxQ but since they were going way slower than they should and never got into thin air I'm not sure it was the MaxQ they wanted.
 

ThreatMatrix

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Tanks are pretty beat up. Elon told Tim Dodd yesterday that those home brew tanks were a mistake. Not having a flame trench was the mistake.
Screenshot 2023-04-20 200735.png
 

ThreatMatrix

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Looks like all engines firing after it cleared the table.,, no, looks like one booster engine in the back?
 

ThreatMatrix

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Elon has spoken. Some surprises there. They don't have any evidence of debris kicking up into the engines. And once again they did the only thing that I thought they wouldn't do and launch with 30 engines. Kinda worrisome that they are having reliability problems. He also says they've ramped down engine production but why are any of those already produced engines any more reliable? Otherwise the rest seems plausible. Kinda funny they couldn't blow it up.
 

deuce

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I'm not surprised by the outcome of this launch. I've had my doubts about the survive-ability of Stage Zero and Elon had already said that just clearing the Tower would be a success. I don't think Spacex expected the concrete to fail to this extent but that's why you launch the rocket... to find problems and fix them. I don't think this version of the OLM is what we will see down the road but for now SPX will fix it and send another test vehicle down range. Fun, fun, fun.....

* Glad I'm not footing the bill for fixing the mess!

* Some talking head said "this just proves that SpaceX does make mistakes" ... what a joke! SpaceX isn't afraid of taking chances.... just the opposite of BO!

* Who ever thought building a tank farm right on top of the launch mount was a good idea should be flogged at the next company picnic....

* Rocket performed better than anyone outside of SPX expected.
 

deuce

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Work is going on at a accelerated pace..... next launch in late June?

Odds?
 

ThreatMatrix

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Work is going on at a accelerated pace..... next launch in late June?

Odds?
They've still got a lot of work to do on the pad. They started drilling 100ft foundations 2-3? weeks ago and have dug 20 holes. Most think they are only half way done. Then they can start installing the actual water deluge of which we've only seen a few pieces assembled. The rest are either in a tent (not likely), built off site (possibly), or yet to start. I don't know much about welding but I hear welding 2 inch steel is a lengthy process.
At a min 4 weeks. I bet 6-8.

Both B9 and S25 have been cryo'd but the booster unlike the ship can't be static fired on the sub orbital pad.
The booster can't be SF'd until the pad is finished. They will have to test the pad and all the GSE. Like we saw with the first iteration they used a booster then full stack just to check out the pad. Gonna take time while they work through that.
So they'll do that. Then destack. Then fix stuff and do it again.
2-3 weeks

Then they can start testing/prep.
Booster spin prime. Static fires - at least 2.
Full stack static fire(s).
WDR.
And they seem to have to bring the booster and/or ship back to the production site 1-2 times during that testing. i.e scheduling road closures.
2-4 weeks.

8 weeks - 15 weeks.

And of course there are a couple of issues that we have no idea when they'll be resolved. FAA is going to have to sign off on the new FTS.
And the tree-hugger law suit. It may never launch. :mad:
 

deuce

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And of course there are a couple of issues that we have no idea when they'll be resolved. FAA is going to have to sign off on the new FTS.
And the tree-hugger law suit. It may never launch. :mad:
LOL, don't be so negative........ after all, this is Texas, not California.
 

ThreatMatrix

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"Final piling count will be 14 outside and 9 through the inside." Don't know if that's official but the crane has moved so hopefully they're are done and we will start to see water deluge. Lots of speculation. We've only seen two manifold sections - don't know where the rest is. Supposedly they shipped manifolds from the cape but they were scrapped for some reason.

spacexpad.jpg
 

Detroitgator

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Anybody else in the panhandle get the sonic boom last night? I'm in DC, but wife said she thought something had hit the house. :lol:
 

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