The very early prediction thread for the 2020 Presidential election

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Gator Fever, Jun 28, 2020.

  1. Gator Fever

    Gator Fever Senior Member

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    Took some time to really look at how these states are trending with demographics and some other stuff and I am changing my view just a little on how these competitive states will play out in the 2020 POTUS election.

    The states most likely Trump in order of his chances of winning the state:

    1. NC
    2. AZ - very close to FL now with the changes happening there and their near ballot harvesting system.
    3. FL

    The states that are true tossups at this point in order of his chances of winning the state:

    1. WI
    2. MI
    3. PA
    4. NH (2nd closest state in 2016 to MI)
    5. NV

    The states that will very likely go to Biden but Trump could possibly win if he rolled (these states won't be part of any scenario of a Trump win unless he rolls in the EV more than he did in 2016):

    Likely fool's gold

    1. MN (Even with the crazy mess there that Minneapolis area has become such a huge piece of that state's population I cant see the Reps winning it with the Dems taking it serious this time - just too many Dem votes for them to get out of that growing area. Naive white females in the suburbs there won't change their voting patterns much I bet. At least the advertising money Trump spends there assists him with Wisconsin.

    2. ME (Trump made a huge jump over Romney's numbers here - perhaps the biggest jump of any state. I think Trump can't win this state unless he really rolls however.

    100% fool's gold

    CO* and VA: Trump would be a fool imo to rally in these states in the last 2 weeks or to spend any late advertising money in these places.

    If the CO Senate race doesn't appear to be out of reach Trump may make a late stop in CO just for that reason.
    ---------------------------

    Going to stick with my earlier prediction Trump pulls it out 270-268 with wins in NC, AZ, FL and WI.

    If Trump was to lose FL he has to win those 3 rust belt area states (PA, MI and WI) again or he could win these ways as long as AZ and NC held:

    Win PA, MI and either NV or NH
    Win PA, WI, NV and NH

    The unlikely but crazy 269-269 tie scenarios (imagine the crooked media if this was to happen considering the rules that go along with that):

    If Trump loses FL a 269 tie is possible if Trump held NC and AZ and also won PA, MI and Maine.

    If Trump loses FL a 269 tie is possible if Trump held NC and AZ and also won PA, WI, NV and Maine.

    If Trump loses AZ a 269 tie is possible if Trump held NC and FL and also won PA.

    If Trump loses AZ a 269 tie is possible if Trump held NC and FL and also won WI, NV and NH
     
    #1 Gator Fever, Jun 28, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2020 at 2:45 PM
  2. divits

    divits A Muffin of the Studly Variety
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    Even Trump doesn’t seem to think he’s going to win.
     
  3. URGatorBait

    URGatorBait #TeamDubs
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    Trump in a landslide taking all 57 states :grin:
     
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    • grengadgy

      grengadgy Well-Known Member
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      I can't see Sleepy Joe doing any better than Hillary. 304 to 227 ?
       
      • Swamp Donkey

        Swamp Donkey Bring Back Squash
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        [​IMG]
         
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        • Concrete Helmet

          Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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          Trump voters typically don't p0ll and another forum that I'm on(non sports) that has over 10K members has an "unofficial" allegiance to only poll for Biden and I have heard in numerous other "Trump circles" that I'm in business with and such.....believe what you want but trust me when I tell you there is a "silent MAJORITY" out there....
           
          #6 Concrete Helmet, Jun 28, 2020
          Last edited: Jun 28, 2020
          • Gator Fever

            Gator Fever Senior Member

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            So Trump wins all 6 of those swing states he won last time. Definitely possible but no telling the level of fraud that will take place in Philly and that Detroit area this time. I think the Dems got caught by surprise in MI in 2016 but they definitely took PA serious and still barely lost it.
             
          • gardnerwebbgator

            gardnerwebbgator Deplorable
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            Biden flips FL, AZ, and PA and our Republic goes into the history trash bin.

            I sincerely pray I am 1,000,000 percent wrong.
             
            • Frozen Gator

              Frozen Gator Well-Known Member
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              Pubs win back the House and 60+ in the Senate. I hope Crete is correct!
               
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              • MJMGator

                MJMGator Slightly amused
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                I suspect Trump wins, but who knows with all the craziness that could still ensue between now and November.
                Can you honestly believe the choices we’ve been given these past 3-4 elections?
                 
              • Gator Fever

                Gator Fever Senior Member

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                AZ worries me because its process is just short of ballot harvesting when it comes to how fraud can be committed with that system.
                 
                • CaribGator

                  CaribGator 2020 Champs
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                  Raz Simone in CHAZ was a test run to see how the public would react to having a warlord rule over them. The liberals would have already built a statue for him but have been too busy tearing down other statues. So now that the water has been tested. The sheeple are ready.

                  At the convention, Biden will withdraw due to health issues, and Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho will get the nomination. We obviously are living in the times of the prequel to Idiocracy, and for "the rest of the story" just watch the movie

                  I will add i think Trump takes MI easy with the way their dictator has ruled with the virus proclamations, just about every Dem run state that had a heavy hand and strong restrictions will be in play IMHO. Stopping the fraud will be the key to winning for repubs. Those offices that flipped to republican out in Commiefornia last month is a sign.

                  https://www.usnews.com/news/electio...ips-california-house-seat-in-special-election
                   
                  #12 CaribGator, Jun 28, 2020
                  Last edited: Jun 28, 2020
                  • Okeechobee Joe

                    Okeechobee Joe Lost Ball in High Grass
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                    I don't feel good right now about Trump's chances. There are too many big things overwhelming him. There's the mainstream media, the lingering COVID outbreak, the economy which is being held hostaget by the lockdown, and now the over reaction to the George Floyd murder. This last one is particularly problematic because the Democrats are using it to pin Trump in a corner as a white supremacist. The left knows that every time BLM tears down a statue and Trump rightly speaks out against it they can paint him as a racist. Biden is an empty head in an empty suit but he can hide in his basement, avoid debating Trump, and can claim he is following the COVID lockdown recommendations

                    If all that isn't enough you know that the Democrats have control of a lot of the election machinery and voting machines. We have already seen instances of voter fraud. You know that Democrats will not hesitate to tamper with the vote if it means they can get rid of Trump. They won't even see it as something wrong or illegal. They will see it as a moral imperative because in they see cheating at the ballot box as a way to rid the country in their minds of a tyrannical white supremacist. Because their side can riot in the streets and tear down statues without seeming repercussions why would they not hesitate to alter some ballots or rig some voting machines.

                    I am disturbed how a lot of the white sheep in the suburbs and corporate America have jumped on the false narrative bandwagon of widespread systemic racism.

                    It's the Cloward-Piven strategy of orchestrating an overwhelming crisis so the government can solve it writ large.
                     
                    #13 Okeechobee Joe, Jun 28, 2020
                    Last edited: Jun 28, 2020
                    • Swamp Donkey

                      Swamp Donkey Bring Back Squash
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                      Youve been wrong all along.
                       
                      • Gator Fever

                        Gator Fever Senior Member

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                        :lol: Well at least this mess will be predictable until November
                         
                        • Bammer

                          Bammer Serving up sh*t sandwiches
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                          I fear you're correct. My vote won't mean anything here in Illinois.

                          The Jill Stein vote won't happen in 2020. I think Biden finds a way to pull this out. I pray McConnell can hang on to the senate to slow down whatever nonsense Nancy & Co. put forth.
                           
                        • Bammer

                          Bammer Serving up sh*t sandwiches
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                          I like the follow-up to that. If Biden is forced to get out and start talking, people will grow quite restless. I think it'll be worse than the Palin debacle in 2008.
                           
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                          • gardnerwebbgator

                            gardnerwebbgator Deplorable
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                            Then who would be the nominee? Pence? Hailey? Scott?
                             
                          • Bammer

                            Bammer Serving up sh*t sandwiches
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                            God. Could you imagine if Tim Scott were the nominee? The Dems would LOSE it.
                             
                            • gardnerwebbgator

                              gardnerwebbgator Deplorable
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                              A Scott/Hailey all SC ticket.
                               

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