Topping my “bad ideas” list: Looking here for Mortgage advice

To me it's like this. Sooner or later(probably later)the government will have to answer for why unemployment is remaining so high after the pandemic, whenever they let that be known. A ton of people are assuming there will be some major economic growth....I'm telling you it has already been priced in....this is as good as it gets.
Yesterday our trade deficit went to the highest level EVER.....Labor force participation for over 55 went WAY down, don't quote me but I think it was the biggest drop ever(way too soon for 98% of people this age to retire)...Interest rates are historically low BUT they are steadily rising...Higher rates point the way to lower prices-economics 101 in the housing market.
People are stupid but when they notice their neighbor and co workers getting laid off, realize they are paying $4.00 a gallon for gas, their taxes including property taxes are going up along with the utility bill for no reason their sentiment will shift just like it did going from 2006-2007. Oh and banks and financials are way over their heads in derivatives again(sound familiar). Look at what the liquidation of one hedge fund starting last week did to some of the financials yesterday, some down 11%. There is no way out.
It's just a matter of when the make up comes off the pig....

 

Yeah, I got nuthin for anyone on timing anything. I came to the realization around 2015 that the Fed can keep the game going a long, long, time. It will end badly, I have no idea when.

 

Understandable but you're buying a home for your family first and foremost so don't be too taken with all of the speculation. We can't always time the market perfectly but throwing money at rent is also a bad investment if you ask me. I'd rather own something that is overpriced during a down cycle(assuming your going to keep it long term) than throw money out the window month after month. You've got a good downstroke to help buffer a downturn in equity which will also help you regain faster when the market turns upward again should this even happen to begin with.

 

Drats! I’ve been checking this thread often to see if you would post your take on signs telling us when to get the hell out of the markets.

If your crystal ball isn’t working, how are we mere mortals supposed to figure out when to take the money and run?

 

But that's the point here CH - he's talking about living in this house for only a few years. If that's the case, this is a risky purchase, imo.

The house I took a beating on I bought in 2005 for $240k (near Nease HS outside of Jax). I sold it in 2010 for $126k under a military program - I basically did a short-sale, but the Army Corps of Engineers (who ran the program) paid the difference in what I owed. I lost over $30K w/ the upgrades I did to the house plus the lost money in rent (I couldn't rent it for what the monthly mortgage was). I was happy to walk away and didn't take a hit to my credit...I bought the house I'm in now just after that (March 2011). Anyhow, I've checked on that house year after year to see if it's sold and what it's estimated value is - just this year (2021) it's estimated value went over $240k. So...it took that house 16 years to get back to it's purchase price from 2005.

 

I'm pretty much out. Have one more trade to make at some point. Waiting to see how things shuffle after the quarter and hopefully it'll make a nice run quickly. I really don't expect things to hold on much after the summer, but I want out before then, because who knows what stupidity is looming.

After watching the GameStop deal, I'm wondering if it's really not just a deal of Wall Street deciding when they want to squash the market and turn some folks poor. And when the blood is in the street....buy, buy, buy

 

Apparently Blackrock and J.P. Morgan and many other conglomerates are cash buyers in many markets.

 

That story is here in the DC area, and it's sort of surprising because Silver Spring isn't exactly the most desirable area (it's okay, just nicer areas). But I'm guessing it was because the house was under $400K it attracted a lot of investors. The house across the street from me (in Arlington) listed for $715k and they lowered the price, and got a contract after about 30 days on the market for $694k.

 

That's probably exactly what happened w/ this house - I'm guessing they hope to make upwards of $100k profit (not $300k). My wife has been scouring real estate listings the last year or so and it's amazing how many of these properties were bought between 2018-2020 and are being turned around, getting 25% to 100% over the purchase price w/ mostly minimal 'upgrades'. Just like in June, July, August of 2020, EVERYBODY is making money in real estate right now....and it's going to come to a halt soon.

 

I was skeptical just based on Krystal Ball’s name but decided to watch the first few minutes anyway. Video seems legit so I posted it. Blackstone and other similar groups put a different spin on the whole situation it seems to me. Location, location, location is always the rule, imo. I don’t see materials, labor, land costs and development costs coming down any significant amount.....we shall see if foreclosures are more than a minor blip on the situation given all the millennials who can not delay starting to have babies much longer.....wtf knows...

 

Housing is incredibly over priced.
AND
Banks are being more lenient on loans again.
It's just a matter of time.