Truth Takes: 2019 Schedule

Discussion in 'Main Sports Forum' started by GatorTruth133, Aug 11, 2019.

  1. GatorTruth133

    GatorTruth133 UF Law Grad
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    Welcome to GatorTruth's breakdown of the 2019 Schedule. These will be a brief take on each team, some more brief than others. I will be brief, but will discuss further in comments if you want.

    Miami:

    This game in Orlando is HUGE. Winning is the only option. To lose and I think we may be looking at a 2013 again, the last time we lost to Miami. As someone who has attended every UF-Miami game since 2002, I really do not like Miami and have experienced the wrong side of the rivalry too much.

    Anyways, can you give me one impressive win for Miami in 2018? A 7-7 Pitt team that got wrecked by UCF and others? A Va. Tech team that lost to Old Dominion? FSU with a losing record?

    Meanwhile, against two real teams, we will call them LSU and Wisconsin, those games inspired several episodes of Law & Order: SVU in the past few months. Miami had a good looking front seven against a bunch of mediocre teams, but again, the train that ran through them against two real opponents gives me hope. Throw in their offensive line problems and our aggressive defense and we should have an advantage. The question will be how good really is their front seven and what is the status of our o-line. Although I trust Dan Mullen to scheme around o-line problems more than Enos.

    Florida over Miami

    UT-Martin:

    Should score 50, failure to score 50 will be an embarrassment.

    Florida over UT-Miami

    Kentucky:

    Revenge game, something many of us didn't say. Kentucky has lost a ton of talent and seniors. They also don't have the benefit of a young CB getting his first significant time. However, they do still have our safeties (who we hope improve). The past few trips to Lexington have been close. I think our team has the overall experience to start a new streak.

    Florida over Kentucky.

    Tennessee:

    Florida shouldn't lose this game. We've dominated this series as of late. The last few at home have been close. I would be shocked if a team that went 2-6 in the SEC last season comes into the Swamp and goes out with a win. If Florida, and this is likely, comes in 3-0 many fans will be here for the rivalry game and as the first big home game of the season, the fans should be pumped. Tennessee should have an improved squad over the 5-7 team, but the question is how much. How much of a factor will the crowd be? Probably enough.Tennessee couldn't stop Florida in any phase last year, hard to think that both teams improve with Tennessee improving vastly enough to beat Florida in the Swamp.

    Florida over Tennessee

    Towson:

    See UT-Martin.

    Auburn:

    Auburn has been a thorn in Florida's side since 2001 and many other times before (1994, I still remember). Here's the thing. Auburn wasn't that great last year, they have a new QB, and though returning their o-line, it was good enough to give Tennessee one of their SEC wins last year. Auburn plays at Kyle Field and against #FailState in physical games in the two weeks leading them into Gainesville. A freshman QB will be playing in their second road game when they visit Gainesville. I don't think Malzahn returning to play-calling does enough to push Auburn over the edge for the Swamp, especially with the two weeks coming before him.

    Florida over Auburn, but closer than it should be.

    LSU:

    Just bought my tickets today. Brother and I are making a just the two of us trip to Red Stick. Here's the thing, we should be on a 5 game winning streak in this series:

    2014: Jeff Driskel throws a ball behind Defensive End Tevin Westbrook who couldn't make a circus catch at full stretch behind him while momentum carried him away from the ball. Then Jeff Driskel decided throwing the ball over the middle while trying to move the ball with no time left was a brilliant idea. Well, pick and LSU returns it in FG range and wins with a late FG.
    2015: Treon Harris throws for 271 yards, UF's vaunted D allows a 50 yard catch and run on 3rd and 9 at the end of the 1st half, and Kelvin Taylor has an IMPRESSIVE 1.7 ypc. For all of Treon's faults, this wasn't on him. Someone look up how many power 5 games we have thrown for 271 since, then narrow it by teams like LSU, FSU, and quality UGA teams. Seriously, if the running game (Scarlett 1 carry for 11 yards) and Nuss had done anything and if the D didn't give up a few ridiculous plays, we had a good shot.
    2016: Won, all of Cazabella heard me yell "F***!!!" as the feed cut when Guice went into the air at the end of the game.
    2017: EDDY! EDDY! EDDY!
    2018: Won.

    We will know very little about LSU before we play them as they have one real game (sorry Vandy, you going to be bad this year), in Austin, before we play. This could be to our benefit, or to our demise. It's easy to be confident when you beat Vandy, GA Southern, NW State and Utah State. Can you beat Texas?

    Mullen vs. Orgeron. I'll give Mullen the nudge here for now, a lot can change over the next two months.

    *Florida over LSU.

    South Carolina:

    We do face Auburn and LSU (reverse order of the old days) before facing South Carolina. They face Alabama, Mizzou, Kentucky, and Georgia for 4 weeks before us. I would be shocked if South Carolina was better than 2-4 going into it. I think 2015 was more full for them than will for this game.

    Florida ends Muschamp at South Carolina the way Carolina ended his term at Florida.

    Georgia:

    This is the toughest game of the season currently. If Franks' deep ball is improved, then we can see a battle. Without Franks missing the first play, Scarlett fumble, Hendo Injury, and Franks fumble the 2018 game is difference. However, this is still a talented UGA team. If our defense is healthy, I think we could pull this off.

    I'm going on record for now that this game is a push and could go either way.

    Vanderbilt:

    Gone is Shurmer, Wright is still there. Vandy has lost too much to come into the Swamp. This isn't 2013 (by appearances). Last year, Florida moved the ball consistently, but just failed to score early. This game won't be a 11 a.m. local kick. I think UF will be ready to go.

    Mizzou:

    A mid-November trip to cold Missouri? Yea, this will be fun. Can Bryant run Mizzou's offense like Locke? Possibly, will UF have a big game hangover going into MIzzou this year? No. The revenge factor plays big for me here. Mizzou faces a UGA team that will either be riding high or pissed off the week we play Vandy. This could factor towards us.

    I'm going UF.

    FSU:

    WiLLLLLLLie Taggart and Briles may turn a corner...but will there be an O-Line or a back up QB? Skinny Blackman I don't think makes it this far if the o-line plays like last year. Can UF get its first victory over FSU in the Swamp in a decade? If not, the Seniors shouldn't be the only ones making their final appearance in the Swamp.

    UF over FSU.


    Again, this is brief because I could go on about each for a while and will when the time comes and the status of each team for the week is available. I will talk about these more if you guys want. Every single game is winnable, but this is the Gators we are talking about. Gators' fans are always waiting for the other shoe to drop.

    We can easily win 10 to 12 games in the regular season. I think we somehow could lose to Auburn, Mizzou, LSU, or UGA. All the games are definitely winnable. We find ways to lose games we shouldn't though.

    I think we go 11-1 based on the schedule and where we sit in the schedule for other teams. We do always drop games so 9-3 could be a possibility. "Randomly" picking a coach, Ron English should be removed for less than 9-3...perhaps if less than 10-2. As a note, this is based on most staying healthy and seeing improvement we should see.
     
    • CaribGator

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      12-0

      We struggle with Mizzou, doesn't matter where we play, going out west in a possible cold situation doesn't help. But going in to that game unbeaten should fire up the team to get the win knowing they will be heading to Atlanta.

      Every game is winnable. Like most years, need to keep healthy, no big injuries will go a long way to maintaining continuity and weekly improvement.

      Go Gators
       
      • TLB

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        Those words should never, ever have to be said. We shouldn't ever be in this position. Ever.
         
        • GatorJB

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          I don't think we win 11 games without beating uga. We should be favored in all other games, but I have a bad feeling we'll lose one that we shouldn't (since that happens every year even in our good years).

          Also I think LSU loses to Texas, has an 8-4 season, and continues to not understand anything Orgeron says.
           
          • Swamp Donkey

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            Fvkk Fooley
             
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            • gatorfan81

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              • Gator Fever

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                Miami's defense I think is better than people give them credit for though I think they have issues at safety. They just checked out that Wisconsin game after their bad season and the offense doing nothing the whole year.

                If you just take a couple of select games the UF defense would be called trash last season.

                I do agree Miami is a must win for many reasons. If Mullen finds a way to lose that game with their issues on offense he will be right there with the last coaches except at an earlier time frame than them when it comes to fan talk.

                Auburn is an interesting game and could actually be a good team if one of those young QBs can play but they have a brutal schedule.

                My guess now is LSU and Georgia are likely losses with one more loss thrown in there most likely to Missouri.
                 
                • GatorTruth133

                  GatorTruth133 UF Law Grad
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                  Don’t get me wrong, I think Miami’s defense is good and I respect Manny Diaz on defense. However, the selection of games was selecting the only two quality opponents they faced. In all seriousness, what other quality teams did they play? Not saying your factors aren’t true, they could be, but it’s the quality of the rest of the schedule that makes me pick them. UCF probably had a similar strength of schedule aside from those games.

                  Games I would cherry pick for us are Kentucky, Mizzou, and Georgia. However, I could still point to quality teams like Michigan, LSU, and #FailState.

                  I do refuse to do the transitive property for LSU and FSU because the transitive property of college football is that it really doesn’t matter. First games of the year means your team could change and when we played FSU, you could see they were already a beaten, especially having watched the replay numerous times now.
                   
                • Gator Fever

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                  LSU game wasnt as bad as the score would make you think. Except for 2 big plays I think by LSU's offense that was Miami's terrible punter giving LSU the ball at midfield area or better much of that game. I havent looked at it but I bet LSU didnt have a real good yards per play that game unless I am remembering it wrong.
                   
                • JDW

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                  The UM/LSU game looked an awful lot like our game against UT last season
                   
                • GatorTruth133

                  GatorTruth133 UF Law Grad
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                  Yea, and there offense also wasn’t what I would call stellar anyways. As a general rule, I think Burrow is overrated.

                  But to the question, who else did Miami play?
                   
                  • RiverRat

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                    Don't let this schedule fool you. The only reason its not in everyones top 5 hardest is the 2 FCS teams we play.
                    Matching lasts years 10-3 will not be an easy task, hell last years 10-3 was not a easy task, it took some luck to be honest.

                    The Gators should be favored in all but maybe 2 games, of the favored games three are on the road with teams that beat us or came close to beating us.

                    Don't get me wrong I'm not throwing in the towel but The Gators need to come out firing on all cylinders this year and I've said this before they have to find a way to get the Missouri Monkey off their backs those guys own us.

                    I'm hoping the Michigan bowl game was a display of what a Mullen coached team looks like when it clicking and it carries over to this year, if so 10-2 ,11-1 is a real possibility.
                     
                    #12 RiverRat, Aug 12, 2019
                    Last edited: Aug 12, 2019
                    • GatorTruth133

                      GatorTruth133 UF Law Grad
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                      Are you joking? I'm not even sure it is top 5 in the SEC. South Carolina, Georgia, A&M, Auburn, and Georgia all could be argued have a tougher schedule. Years past, hell yeah, but based on where teams are this year? No.
                       
                      • RiverRat

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                        This is what I like about Chatter we can agree to disagree. I did see it ranked as high a 8th in one publication with others saying the two FCS teams hurt our S.O.S. Go Gators!
                         
                        • Cozumel Gator

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                          Truth thank you so much for taking the time to write this.
                           
                          • soflagator

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                            We have an unusual amount of wildcards on our schedule, which I think gives it a potentially daunting feel. Auburn is so fickle, this could very well be one of their “up” years. Then you have miami, tennessee and fsu, all of whom are virtual unknowns as far as what to expect. Mizzou as well with the addition of Bryant. Of course, they could field a team of penguins and somehow hang 40 on us, so I’m not even sure how critical he is. Then the non-home games against Lsu and uga.

                            I tend to agree with you that at year’s end, this will go down as a fairly tame schedule. But it wouldn’t totally shock me if it turned out to be a really tough one. The possibility, if only on paper, is there.
                             
                            • Swamp Donkey

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                              I agree with everything else but those three are going to suck. scUM may well be the only bowl team. None will be better than six or seven wins.
                               
                              • InstiGATOR1

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                                Well the way I see them I think as I have posted before are:

                                1. Can't lose: UTn-Martin, at UK, Towson, Vandy, at SoCar, at Missouri
                                2. Shouldn't lose: Miami, Auburn, FSU
                                3. Toss ups: at LSU, UGa

                                I say win the ones you should win split the two toss ups and go 11-1, as UF would have gone last year in the regular season had UF won the ones they should have at home.
                                 
                                • GatorTruth133

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                                  I agree with this. Don’t get me wrong it “potentially” (typing from app, don’t know how to italicize) can be a VERY hard schedule. I mean, who would have thought Kentucky would do as well as they did last year overall and a few others.

                                  I’m arguing as of now. Also, when I look at an Auburn team who plays Florida/Georgia cross-division and Oregon, I think that’s harder, Carolina with Bama and at Kyle Field with Clemson (and a new look/healthy UNC), Georgia with aTm, ND and new look Tech, etc. I think their SOS is ahead of us. One more time so I’m clear, my thought is based mostly on what we have seen, and what teams have lost, but my opinion can evolve as we move forward into the season.
                                   
                                • SeabeeGator

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                                  I’d have UGA as an underdog game, at least on paper. Maybe LSU too. Auburn is probably a toss up game. Our roster didn’t magically get significantly better. This seems like a 9-10 win team with the issues on defense and OL.
                                   

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