Before I begin, I have created a new Twitter going into the season
@GatorTruth133. I have to say that I followed a number of people this morning, but am humbled to have Quezzie return the follow. If you see this, you're the man.
Over the past few weeks I have watched and listened to great games of Gators' past. The CBS college football theme gives me such a dopamine rush I am now overly pumped for this season. There is no season like college football season. The passion of fan bases around the country. The traditions, the bands, and the pre-game shows. The smack talk, the upsets, and the unforeseen blowouts. Teams we think will be good can end with losing records while other teams, written off before the first game is kicked off end up fighting for a NY6 bowl or more.
For the second time in three years, Florida will kick off the season in a neutral site game against a team they have struggled against since the early 2000's. Florida gets the honor of kicking off the 150th season of college football. If Florida wants to have a special season, it must win in Orlando. If they lose, it could end up being a long year.
Offense:
There are a few things we have heard coming out of camp; that Franks has a better command of the offense, that Copeland has been impressive, and that the offense will be much faster this year. Obviously, I doubt we would hear otherwise regarding Franks. Although, there were videos posted on Twitter by David Waters near the beginning of Fall Camp showing Franks with some impressive accuracy during some throwing on the run drills. I have harped on this point, and will continue to harp on this point, Franks is now in his second year under a QB coach and OC in his life. I cannot subscribe to an idea that a football player plateau's in only 12 months of coaching. For anyone who hasn't read my stuff before, I do NOT give Nuss the respect of being an actual QB coach or OC. Titles mean little.
Running Game
The first thing I want to address is the offensive line. The offensive line has more combined starts than the '06 offensive line did going into that season. Further, you have a player like Heggie who would probably been a starter if healthy during the season last year. Then you add in Stone Forsythe who saw action in every game last year. Now, does that mean this group has fully gelled? No. Does that mean they won't make mistakes? No. Does that mean we may have to coach around them like we had to do with the offensive line plenty last year? Probably. However, I think that the running game will be fine despite a run defense that dominated the ACC Coastal last year. Miami is replacing two starters along the line, including former Gator Gerald Willis. Their 3 senior linebackers all return, however, the depth behind them is lacking. A lateral run game would exhaust these guys more than a direct attack. Miami is also missing one tackle due to injury, though they have a transfer. I would point to Miami's non-ACC power 5 games, but I've heard that Duke, North Carolina, and last year's Virginia Tech (who lost to Old Dominion) are more of an indicator of how UF will do as opposed to LSU and Wisconsin.
If the Feleipe Franks we saw running towards the end of the season arrives in Orlando he will open things up for Perine, Davis and the rest as Miami's defense will need to respect Franks. Also, re-watching a lot of old Mullen tape showed me things we have not seen much, if at all yet in the running game. Notably, the speed option into a reverse by the receiver (would not be shocked for Toney to get this) and the option to a receiver. Again, Toney would be a good option here.
I would look to see the running game start by going sideways with speed options, sweeps, and end-arounds. As Miami's senior linebacking core cheats wide, you run in between Buchanon and Heggie with Perine's power or even a QB power, which Franks had at least one good one against LSU last season. The QB Power includes Heggie pulling as a lead blocker.
Passing Game
Well, Miami has only 5 scholarship corner's and 5 scholarship safeties on its roster. Both safeties are making their first start. One corner is making his first start. If this were UF, you would expect our defense to get scorched. If only Florida was 6+ deep at receiver and had at least one 6'6" TE with speed...Oh, Jefferson, Grimes, Swain, Hammond, Toney, Cleveland, Pitts, Gamble, and Krull? My bad. If only our running backs could catch...Perine averaged 13 per reception last year?
I expect the beginning of the game to be much in the vein of #failstate last year. I see us throwing laterally and letting our athletic receivers block and make plays before taking some deep shots. If Franks has truly improved his deep ball accuracy, and the line and rb's can buy him 3 seconds Miami's secondary could have a long day. I expect to see crossing and other routes that allow our receivers to catch and run. If I were Dan Mullen, I would pass to set up the run. As I said before, force Miami's linebackers to cheat wide and then hit them up the gut.
Manny Diaz is a good defensive coordinator, not sure how much he will be involved with the defense in his first game as head coach. At least 5 of the front seven returns that had a great 2018 season. Dan Mullen will try to coach around that and help out an offensive line with at least two players with little significant playing time. I do think, as I said in m position preview, that this offensive line will better better then believed based on year two of the system and Savage, but Mullen will also help. I expect Miami's defense to play well, but slowly the lack of depth at corner, safety and linebacker allows Florida to start taking the game over.
Defense:
D-Line
Jachai Polite is gone, but is replaced by transfer Greenard and Moon. I think we will be fine at the buck. Zuniga returns at the other end and Zach Carter will back him up. Carter has massive size and should be a factor early and ofter. Inside, Shuler and so do the three "bam bam" boys as Mac used to call them along with Dunlap. A lot has been made about UF's offensive line against Miami's front seven, but not much has been made about the opposite. Miami's offensive line returns only two starters from a so-so unit. Further, Miami seems to be relying at tackle on a true freshman and a transfer from Butler. Will they be able to handle the multiple and disguised looks of Todd Gratham's defense. Will a QB in his first career start be able to recognize the blitzes? This d-line was very aggressive and caused havoc against some good offensive lines like #failstate and LSU last year. In year two of the system, can they do it against a young and inexperienced line?
Linebackers
Ok, I cheated my former rules and put the Buck with the D-Line. A very solid David Reese returns to face a Miami running game that is missing their top rusher from last season. Amari Burney steps into a linebacker position he played against Michigan in Atlanta. The good news is that Miami is learning a new offense, with a new QB, with a new first string running back, and the questions on their O-line should allow Burney to slide into his role.
Defensive Backs
The word coming out of camp is that the safeties have been stepping up. If that word is true, then this will be the nastiest secondary we have seen in years. Miami's young QB will have to throw against a CB and Nickel unit that has over 40 combined starts between them. Marco Wilson, who was considered the best DB going into last year returns and moves Dean to Nickel. Henderson who many, including myself, was not sure on ended up having a great season allowing no TD's and even two great down the field plays where he didn't quit, most notably my 2018 Play of the Season, the strip of Ethan Wolf at Tennessee. The weakness of the defense last season was safety. Will a young QB be able to take advantage of these guys? Or maybe, just maybe, have the safeties made a 2007 to 2008 type change?
Enos is a good OC. I don't think he is a world beater, but still solid. However, with as much youth and inexperience he is dealing with, I don't know how well they will do against our aggressive and massively experienced defense.
Coaching:
Mullen and Co. in year two against Diaz in not only year one, but year one as a head coach. There is familiarity between these two. However, on a neutral site, I'm giving the edge to the Coach whose team has more experience and more experience in the offense and defensive systems. I've seen Mullen coach around a suspect offensive line before. I can't say I've seen Diaz do it.
Keys to the Game:
If Florida takes care of the ball, I have a hard time believing Miami wins this game. Both from an experience standpoint and from a Florida should make strides on offense and defense in year two of both systems. Too much skill position talent for us to get in open space to be stopped all game. Florida will also have to do better on special teams. Florida cannot allow two blocked punts like it did against Michigan and needs to find a return game.
I am nervous because I have seen too much trash talk from our team. This trash talk reminds me of saying we would hit Brock Berlin in the mouth and Tabor asking if you've ever seen "a duck pull a truck". Anyone remember how those games ended? Or that one time Geno Hayes made headlines saying Tebow would go down?
I think this game is closer than it probably should be on paper, at least for three quarters.
Florida 31 Miami 17
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