Recruiting UF's path to a Top 10 Class (Bill Sikes article)

BMF

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Good read from Bill Sikes:

The Quest of Florida’s Big 3 for a Top-10 Recruiting Class: Part 2

The Quest of Florida’s Big 3 for a Top-10 Recruiting Class: Part 2 - Read and Reaction

Will UF, FSU, or Miami sign a top-10 recruiting class this year? Honestly, after this weekend, most Nole and Cane fans are probably more concerned with whether their teams will win another game this year.

But hey, in the hands of the right coach, good recruiting actually does for a football program what Facebook moms think Essential Oils do for their kids. In light of such miraculous healing power, I’d say this is the perfect time to find the answer to this burning question. So, welcome to part 2!

In part one of this series, we identified a Composite recruiting class score of 266 points as a likely minimum for the #10 ranking, but also identified several programs which could crowd the race and drive that threshold higher.

We then reviewed where things stand at FSU and Miami, presenting a brief, objective look at their path to making the cut. I then left you (mostly UF fans) with a fantastically-executed cliff hanger, as I cut to commercial without breaking down the Gators’ chances of breaking into the top-10 for the first time since 2014. I know that was shady, but I’m about to make up for it.

In the UF-focused part 2 below, we’ll review Coach Mullen’s current class ranking and his target prospects, then discuss key factors to watch as the late-cycle recruiting drama unfolds. I’ll then conclude with several mock-class scenarios (because who doesn’t like a good mock class, amirite?). By the time we’re done, you should have a pretty good idea of where UF’s class stands and about their chances to secure the magical unicorn that is a top-10 class.

Before we get started however, I have more disclaimers for your enjoyment!

Disclaimer 4 – This article will feature comparisons between one player vs another at the same position. These are based on player ratings for the purposes of understanding how they will impact the class score and nothing more. While higher-rated players pan out more often than those rated lower, the lower-rated players could prove to be the better option in the long term.

Disclaimer 5 – “Processing” is a common term that describes when a coaching staff parts way with a committed prospect in favor of chasing a better option. As an example, let’s say Johnny 3-star has been committed to UF for a while, but the staff tells him to pursue other options, then they go after a higher-rated guy that they like better. This happens all the time and it could significantly impact any of the Big 3’s 2019 classes, but I’m not entertaining any of those scenarios here.

Ok, let’s get to it…

UF is currently ranked 24th (11th in the SEC) with a class score of 215.77 and 15 commits
UF Commits

UF Targets

Although UF got off to an agonizingly slow start for the c/o 2019 recruiting cycle, they probably have the best potential of any Big 3 program for a late cycle surge in the rankings. This is due to their large number of remaining scholarships to offer (possibly up to 10 more spots), a relatively low ranking at present, and a targets board that could fill most remaining spots with blue-chip (4 star or better) prospects.

Some of those on UF’s 247 Sports Targets List who are thought to favor UF at this time include:

  • 4-star TE Keon Zipperer
  • 4-star OLB Lloyd Summerall
  • 4-star CB Chris Steele
  • 4-star CB Kair Elam (former Gator DB Matt Elam’s nephew)
  • 4-star RB Nay’Quan Wright
Adding only those five prospects would elevate UF’s score to 256.95 and leave them with room for as many as five more to fill out the class. They would then need only 10 additional points to reach the aforementioned 266-point threshold (but again, more may be required). Some of the other blue-chip targets who could help them get there include:

  • 5-star RB Trey Sanders is thought to be an Alabama lean, but his brother Umstead is now playing LB at UF.
  • 4-star WR Elijah Higgins has UF in his top 3, but most view Stanford or Texas as the likely leader
  • 4-star DE Khris Bogle has been viewed as a Miami/Tennessee/Alabama battle but UF is in the picture
  • 4-star DL Jaren Handy is committed to Auburn but continues to be a subject of message board chatter for Gator fans
  • 4-star DL Quashon Fuller is committed to FSU but acting like a guy who could flip
  • 4-star DL Derick Hunter is committed to FSU but acting like a guy who could flip… again.
  • 4-star DL Nathan Pickering is committed to Mississippi State but has a long relationship with Dan Mullen.
  • 4-star LB J.D. Bertrand was once committed to Georgia, but is now open.
  • 4-star OL Michael Tarquin is committed to Miami but continues to visit Gainesville.
  • 4-star OL Deyavie Hammond attends Lakeland High school with Summerall & Zipperer.
Key Factors
This isn’t a complete list of UF’s targets of course, but it shows they’re still chasing a large group of quality prospects from which they hope to fill out the class. And while it’s impossible to predict exactly how things will unfold, there are three keys you should keep an eye on that will be huge factors:

The Key Game: FSU – If I made a complete list of the things UF needed to accomplish to land a top-10 class at this point, beating FSU would probably be right behind “Not aligning with ISIS”. Ok, it would be a distant second, but it’s still really, really important.

To explain why, I could simply remind you that the winner of this game has enjoyed recruiting superiority over the loser in each of the last 13 class cycles…


(more at the link)


-----


(from the article):

But, if we really want to see the class score make a big move, it sure would be nice to see Mullen land a 5-star prospect for the first time since 2015. These true elites, which have made AP All-SEC teams 63% of the time at UF (vs 4% of UF’s 3-star signees), provide a huge point boost to class score totals.
 

T REX

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To explain why, I could simply remind you that the winner of this game has enjoyed recruiting superiority over the loser in each of the last 13 class cycles…

We MUST beat FSU at all costs. There's no excuse. He's gotta win this game. Circle it, embrace it and hate them. They are the enemy.
 

SaltyGator

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FSU is definitely a must, for 5 straight years we've been on the losing side of the FSU game. If we ever expect to be competitive recruiting against them the wins have to come and this year looks like our best shot in a long time!

Lets Go Gators!
 

ThreatMatrix

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Yeah. I’m not panicking about recruiting yet. We are actually chasing quality unlike previous years. So I’ll wait and see. But a f’n 5* would be nice.
 

78

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It's a process. I ain't seen the Fat Lady.
 

NOLAGATOR

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Why you would go to the U or FSU is beyond me?

We need a good QB, OL and SPEED.

We are going up. FSU falling. And the U has a coach that will never be great.
 

Swamp Donkey

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Yeah, I know. Doubt we kill it but I think we close fast. Hoping, at least.
Why? What recruiters do we have with a history of closing fast.

Do you remember how we closed fast in Feb?
 

78

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Why? What recruiters do we have with a history of closing fast.

Do you remember how we closed fast in Feb?
Trajectory of the program and hope. We need to translate this year into something very positive. I'm gonna be disappointed if we don't.

Edit: Scratch disappointed. More like angry.
 

Durty South Swamp

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Stupid article. The "mythical top ten class."

GTFOH with that trash. Nothing mythical about it if an HC is worth half a :kiffin:

Top ten should be a GIVEN and a disappointment and this tard is acting like it's a freaking unicorn.

He can eat a bag, and if we don't have at least a top ten class, this whole staff can eat about a dozen bags.

Sick of this trash. Do you're f####ng jobs!!!!
 

78

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Stupid article. The "mythical top ten class."

GTFOH with that trash. Nothing mythical about it if an HC is worth half a :kiffin:

Top ten should be a GIVEN and a disappointment and this tard is acting like it's a freaking unicorn.

He can eat a bag, and if we don't have at least a top ten class, this whole staff can eat about a dozen bags.

Sick of this trash. Do you're f####ng jobs!!!!
Some people can't sell solar-powered down warmers to Eskimos.
 

alcoholica

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Why? What recruiters do we have with a history of closing fast.

Do you remember how we closed fast in Feb?
He's probably thinking that it'll be a slow close, and hopes it'll actually happen
 

Swamp Donkey

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We closed with 3 4* on NSD. Copeland, Langham & Chatfield.

We closed with 2 4* on ESD: Jones & Dean

Not sure who recruited those guys, but someone closed strong on both days.
Bullshyt, we aimed for 10 more kids, took home only 17, with many "Countback" EEs, and claimed we were just saving the seats for this year.

Oh yeah, and dropped from #7 or #9 at ESD back to Buttersland again, where weve remained.
 

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