Evaluating Recruiting Evaluations: Are all 3 Stars created equally?

[Ancient Reptile]

Of course all 3-stars are not "created equally". What I get tired of is EVERY 3-star commit we get we have comments like "Oh, he's way underrated" Really? Have you looked at the kids in front of him? These services that rate kids are often wrong...so are draft "experts". But these people do this for a living. Or comments that imply that our coaching staff is better at evaluating talent than other coaching staffs. What makes anyone think that one coach is better than another coach at evaluating the talent of 3-stars? If anything, coaches at Boise State, Missouri, North Carolina (schools that don't usually sign top-25 classes full of 4-stars) have coaches that evaluate 3-star talent better. UF is a school that should average better than 3.6 stars (meaning we sign more 4 and 5 stars than 3-star or below, to bring our average over 3.5). I know plenty of 3-stars become superstars....but I know more of them are likely to be mediocre vs. 4 and 5 star talent.

Are you saying that the ability to evaluate talent mighty be learned at a lesser school such as, say, Colorado State?

 

[soflagator]

Stars do and don't matter. We saw some of Urban's highly touted classes show up and produce while other flat out failed. I can tell you for certain that while Urban was here, he recruited based solely on stars. I think if you do your due diligence (which I think Mac and Co. do) then stars do matter. If you don't do your diligence, then they don't matter and it's luck of the draw.

Concerning 3*s, you have to trust your coaches, but they are really calculated risks. Davis at LB was not supposed to be this good. He didn't have elite athleticism, so what happened. Apparently, he has a ton of intangibles like leadership and work ethic that don't typically show up in a rating. Kylan Johnson is another guy who was a tweener 3* safety. While he has yet to play an SEC down, his spring was very impressive. So he had potential and the position move worked out. Fred Johnson, Zuniga, and Kalif Jackson were all 3* with potential. Some of these guys will pan out, some won't. What you don't want to see are polished 3*s without physical ability. If you are going to take a 3*, they have to have something that makes them worth a risk.

As you go up to 4* and 5* guys, you see more natural ability along with potential. You also have to weed out the character issues. Some 4* may be tapped out on physical potential, but are very polished and have better physical ability than a 3* with similar skills.

Pretty solid analysis. The recruiting class to NC correlation is pretty much undeniable.

And on a side not, I think Meyer's "bust" classes(which are often used here in this argument) were more a product of unbalance and/or circumstance than actually missing on star rankings. As you said, 2006 and 2007 are arguably two of the best classes in cfb history. But it seemed once we got to 2008, we started slipping on offense and had a defense-heavy class 3 years straight.

And I know it's common to call 2010 a bust, but I honestly think if he doesn't quit in Dec 2009, and had actually stayed through their 4-5 years, they would've been viewed completely differently. Some of those kids went through like 5 coordinators from recruitment to graduation. I don't blame the ones that bailed early like Haden and the WR from PA, nor do I lay all the struggles and disappointment of that class at the feet of the players themselves or the analysts that ranked them. To me, some measure of coaching stability has as much to do with it as anything.

 

[Yankeetown]

Of course all 3-stars are not "created equally". What I get tired of is EVERY 3-star commit we get we have comments like "Oh, he's way underrated" Really? Have you looked at the kids in front of him? These services that rate kids are often wrong...so are draft "experts". But these people do this for a living. Or comments that imply that our coaching staff is better at evaluating talent than other coaching staffs. What makes anyone think that one coach is better than another coach at evaluating the talent of 3-stars? If anything, coaches at Boise State, Missouri, North Carolina (schools that don't usually sign top-25 classes full of 4-stars) have coaches that evaluate 3-star talent better. UF is a school that should average better than 3.6 stars (meaning we sign more 4 and 5 stars than 3-star or below, to bring our average over 3.5). I know plenty of 3-stars become superstars....but I know more of them are likely to be mediocre vs. 4 and 5 star talent.

(1) The Saban/Mac approach is DESIGNED to get better in-house evals of potential recruits, because it's staffed with a BUNCH of people whose 100% job is to do exactly that. They have the resources to look intensively at high school juniors, and then use that advance knowledge to get a head start on the herd and wooing the prospects they find most interesting. Clearly it works for Saban. We don't have enough of a track record yet to know if Coach Mac has successfully replicated that aspect of the franchise. (We also don't have enough of a track record to conclude that he hasn't. Saban didn't get it all going in 1 or 2 years either.)

(2) We see lots of comments about the rating that such & such player had, and how he performed. Or how 5/4/3 do, on average, in NFL drafts. But have we seen any DATA on how good and/or stable the ratings on high school JUNIORS are, before they even hit the summer camps before their senior years ??? Not that I have seen.

If you have any background in statistics, it is obvious that the entire ratings process is very much a Bayesian approach. Each rating service puts out its initial assessments. (Some watch film, some go to camps, some make phone calls to a few college scouts, some probably just roll Dungeons & Dragons dice.) That's the prior belief. Then more information comes in .... like whether Alabama or Florida offered a kid, or whether his best offer to date is from San Mateo Junior College ... and the ratings are amended. Eventually the ratings converge to something of a weighted consensus, just before NSD.

 

[T REX]

Are you saying that the ability to evaluate talent mighty be learned at a lesser school such as, say, Colorado State?

Interesting point. Valid. Take it a step further. At a lower tier school you have to find diamonds in the rough. I get it.

My next question is do you still have to have that same mindset at a school like Florida? To some degree, sure. But it shouldn't be THE plan.

 

[URGatorBait]

Interesting point. Valid. Take it a step further. At a lower tier school you have to find diamonds in the rough. I get it.

My next question is do you still have to have that same mindset at a school like Florida? To some degree, sure. But it shouldn't be THE plan.

You're underestimating what chump has done to this place.

 

[T REX]

(1) The Saban/Mac approach is DESIGNED to get better in-house evals of potential recruits, because it's staffed with a BUNCH of people whose 100% job is to do exactly that. They have the resources to look intensively at high school juniors, and then use that advance knowledge to get a head start on the herd and wooing the prospects they find most interesting. Clearly it works for Saban. We don't have enough of a track record yet to know if Coach Mac has successfully replicated that aspect of the franchise. (We also don't have enough of a track record to conclude that he hasn't. Saban didn't get it all going in 1 or 2 years either.)

(2) We see lots of comments about the rating that such & such player had, and how he performed. Or how 5/4/3 do, on average, in NFL drafts. But have we seen any DATA on how good and/or stable the ratings on high school JUNIORS are, before they even hit the summer camps before their senior years ??? Not that I have seen.

If you have any background in statistics, it is obvious that the entire ratings process is very much a Bayesian approach. Each rating service puts out its initial assessments. (Some watch film, some go to camps, some make phone calls to a few college scouts, some probably just roll Dungeons & Dragons dice.) That's the prior belief. Then more information comes in .... like whether Alabama or Florida offered a kid, or whether his best offer to date is from San Mateo Junior College ... and the ratings are amended. Eventually the ratings converge to something of a weighted consensus, just before NSD.

I disagree with your whole post. I already posted Saban's first three recruiting classes 10th, then number one overall followed by ANOTHER number ONE overall. He did get it going out of the gate.

There's a reason that 5 stars kids have the highest success rate to be drafted. It's because the system as a whole...works. I never seen the rating system attacked as much as the past two years after our coach poo-poo'ed in recruiting. No one ever complained when we were hauling in great classes. Now that Mac can't recruit for ****....the rating system is flawed. GTFO.

 

[gatormandan]

I disagree with your whole post. I already posted Saban's first three recruiting classes 10th, then number one overall followed by ANOTHER number ONE overall. He did get it going out of the gate.

There's a reason that 5 stars kids have the highest success rate to be drafted. It's because the system as a whole...works. I never seen the rating system attacked as much as the past two years after our coach poo-poo'ed in recruiting. No one ever complained when we were hauling in great classes. Now that Mac can't recruit for ****....the rating system is flawed. GTFO.

Im really hoping Mac pulls a good class this time. What will suck then?

 

[BMF]

Are you saying that the ability to evaluate talent mighty be learned at a lesser school such as, say, Colorado State?

Well, there you have it everybody. PROOF that McElwain's 3-stars are better than everyone else's!

 

[TheDouglas78]

Are we going to bitch and/or defend recruits for a 2017 class that hasn't been signed for the next 6 months?

 

[BMF]

Interesting point. Valid. Take it a step further. At a lower tier school you have to find diamonds in the rough. I get it.

My next question is do you still have to have that same mindset at a school like Florida? To some degree, sure. But it shouldn't be THE plan.

Another point on AR's comment about Colorado State: everyone is saying that McElwain is suffering because of Muschamp's recruiting....well, was McElwain suffering at CSU due to the previous coach's poor recruiting? Or did he win in year 2 "with the other guys players"??

Often you'll hear (when a coach has success), "He's winning w/ 'Previous Coach's' players" (it's usually an insult by opposing fans saying that "when he gets HIS own players he won't do as well"). We heard this about Meyer (he won w/ Zook's players - in 2006). But now, it's the opposite (to the pumpers).

He was only at CSU for 3 years. His QB was already on the roster when he got there. So....did he evaluate a bunch of talent or did he win w/ the previous coach's players?

It's a pissing contest.

The bottom line: Sign less 3-stars and start getting the kids that everyone wants!!

Every recruiting thread on here turns into a pissing contest about how great of a talent evaluator McElwain is vs. why isn't he beating FSU, Alabama, Ohio State, etc for the top ranked kids?

I'm with gatormandan, let's sign a better class this year and make everyone happy!

 

[T REX]

Im really hoping Mac pulls a good class this time. What will suck then?

I hope he signs a top 5 class too. We can all celebrate.

 

[rogdochar]

You're underestimating what chump has done to this place.

FIFY = you're underdevastating what chump has done to this place.

 

[URGatorBait]

FIFY = you're underdevastating what chump has done to this place.

 

[soflagator]

Another point on AR's comment about Colorado State: everyone is saying that McElwain is suffering because of Muschamp's recruiting....well, was McElwain suffering at CSU due to the previous coach's poor recruiting? Or did he win in year 2 "with the other guys players"??

Often you'll hear (when a coach has success), "He's winning w/ 'Previous Coach's' players" (it's usually an insult by opposing fans saying that "when he gets HIS own players he won't do as well"). We heard this about Meyer (he won w/ Zook's players - in 2006). But now, it's the opposite (to the pumpers).

He was only at CSU for 3 years. His QB was already on the roster when he got there. So....did he evaluate a bunch of talent or did he win w/ the previous coach's players?

It's a pissing contest.

The bottom line: Sign less 3-stars and start getting the kids that everyone wants!!

Every recruiting thread on here turns into a pissing contest about how great of a talent evaluator McElwain is vs. why isn't he beating FSU, Alabama, Ohio State, etc for the top ranked kids?

I'm with gatormandan, let's sign a better class this year and make everyone happy!

I've said this before, but I think as much as Mac was the best realistic choice for HC in late 2014(and I think his ability to coach is proven), he wasn't an ideal fit given what Muschamp had allowed us to become. If this was 2002, 2005 or even 2010 and he was walking into an established program, he'd be fine. As it was, he inherited an absolute mess and severely damaged brand, and simply isn't the elite recruiter that can turn things on a dime. Add that to fsu's rise, and you have the current situation.

One of the reasons I was a proponent of Franklin back at the close of 2013 was that he was a great motivator that also had the known resume to immediately put UF in the mix with any recruit out there, similar to Meyer in 2005. Mac, for all his positive attributes, just isn't that guy. The truth is even Mac's greatest cheerleader, McElroy, mentioned questions about his ability to recruit in the cut throat SEC/FL battles when he was first discussed as a candidate a day or so after WM was fired. His reservations have proven to be accurate.

Bottom line, as much as we may not want to accept it, Mac is not going to be the dynamic recruiter that we hope for and probably still need. Unlike the last regime, he's an actual coach who tries to recruit, not the other way around. Hopefully he can do enough this year on the field to recreate UF and make us a dream destination again. But the truth is, "we" waited too long and the damage was done and we're going to have to slowly dig ourselves out.

 

[rogdochar]

The pull-down hitch on Mac may very well be his honesty, his anti-hypocrite nature. Said to mean that
Mac can't hit his big strides, confident strides until after his Gators prove top worth on the field, in major
games. Put up or shut up seems to fit Mac's nature. I predict Mac and his recruiting palette will capture
strong colors of orange and blue once UF's CFB program flexes winners' muscles for enough seasons
in a row. I'm thinking Mac chooses not to fake-rep anything to any recruits and that rare trait takes time to
acquire its recognized worth to young men everywhere.
Before they beam with pride off-field, Gators have to team with pride on-field. That we should see
on-screen this upcoming 12-games.

 

[GatorTom85]

I disagree with your whole post. [the rest of the dumper drivel deleted] .

On a similar note, water is wet.

 

[GatorTom85]

Are we going to ***** and/or defend recruits for a 2017 class that hasn't been signed for the next 6 months?

Apparently...

 

[GatorTom85]

Another point on AR's comment about Colorado State: everyone is saying that McElwain is suffering because of Muschamp's recruiting....well, was McElwain suffering at CSU due to the previous coach's poor recruiting? Or did he win in year 2 "with the other guys players"??

Often you'll hear (when a coach has success), "He's winning w/ 'Previous Coach's' players" (it's usually an insult by opposing fans saying that "when he gets HIS own players he won't do as well"). We heard this about Meyer (he won w/ Zook's players - in 2006). But now, it's the opposite (to the pumpers).

He was only at CSU for 3 years. His QB was already on the roster when he got there. So....did he evaluate a bunch of talent or did he win w/ the previous coach's players?

It's a pissing contest.

The bottom line: Sign less 3-stars and start getting the kids that everyone wants!!

Every recruiting thread on here turns into a pissing contest about how great of a talent evaluator McElwain is vs. why isn't he beating FSU, Alabama, Ohio State, etc for the top ranked kids?

I'm with gatormandan, let's sign a better class this year and make everyone happy!

But that clearly WON'T make everyone happy because it will remove the top item on the bitch and moan list.

 

[GatorJ]

I've said this before, but I think as much as Mac was the best realistic choice for HC in late 2014(and I think his ability to coach is proven), he wasn't an ideal fit given what Muschamp had allowed us to become. If this was 2002, 2005 or even 2010 and he was walking into an established program, he'd be fine. As it was, he inherited an absolute mess and severely damaged brand, and simply isn't the elite recruiter that can turn things on a dime. Add that to fsu's rise, and you have the current situation.

One of the reasons I was a proponent of Franklin back at the close of 2013 was that he was a great motivator that also had the known resume to immediately put UF in the mix with any recruit out there, similar to Meyer in 2005. Mac, for all his positive attributes, just isn't that guy. The truth is even Mac's greatest cheerleader, McElroy, mentioned questions about his ability to recruit in the cut throat SEC/FL battles when he was first discussed as a candidate a day or so after WM was fired. His reservations have proven to be accurate.

Bottom line, as much as we may not want to accept it, Mac is not going to be the dynamic recruiter that we hope for and probably still need. Unlike the last regime, he's an actual coach who tries to recruit, not the other way around. Hopefully he can do enough this year on the field to recreate UF and make us a dream destination again. But the truth is, "we" waited too long and the damage was done and we're going to have to slowly dig ourselves out.

That's why we need to spend money on assistants that are killers on the recruiting trail

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Another point on AR's comment about Colorado State: everyone is saying that McElwain is suffering because of Muschamp's recruiting....well, was McElwain suffering at CSU due to the previous coach's poor recruiting? Or did he win in year 2 "with the other guys players"??

Too be fair, I think he was 7-6. Not sure you want to brag about that.