Gator Baseball 2022 Gator Baseball

[Joegator96]

Good morning Jboss, notwithstanding your witty sarcasm, @FireFoley has simply provided a competent analysis of the lack of baseball fundamentals in all aspects of UF baseball baseball and I agree with much of his analysis. I am also a student of the game and having closely followed and watched Gator baseball for 3 decades I can tell you that there are good reasons to be critical of the coaching. One issue that stands out is that they strike out a lot and leave a lot of men on base. Some players concentrate more on launch angle than making contact. There is a lack of changing their plate approach with 2 strikes such as not making any attempt at protecting the plate or choking up on the bat just to name a few. Those are all coaching issues. Just my 2 cents based on watching, coaching and studying the game for 6 decades with no suggestion that I am qualified to coach the team.

It has appeared to me this season has shown a significant improvement in fundamentals. To wit, the team has actually executed sacrifice bunts in the appropriate situation. They have bunted for hits, stolen bases, hit n run, hit against the shift and cut down on SO's, yet still too many to compete week to week in the SEC. Until this weekend the defense has shown consistency and ability to make routine plays routinely.
An example of the coaching was the sideline interview Sunday with Sully and they asked about Thompson breaking out of his slump and Sully said they had discussed him going to the plate and taking his two strike approach from the onset. The result was an opposite field line drive double early in the game and ironically a HR into RF during the interview. Hitting HR's isn't a bad thing, it should not be the at sole objective and it doesn't appear to be this season. Every regular is consistently hitting into the gaps, that's good plate discipline.
This team can hit throughout the line-up, normally the D is efficient. The challenge remains on the bump. Friday night is solid, maybe spectacular with Barco, Sproat can be special and frustrating in the same outing, we do not have a Sunday starter yet. The pen is full of freshmen, several doing good things and some can't find a strike or get the key out. This coming weekend will be telling when we have a chance to embarrass a struggling LSU at home. Time will tell,

 

[RiverRat]

The Fabian brothers at alumni hall this afternoon sporting their brand and signing autographs

 

[Spurdog98]

Good morning Jboss, notwithstanding your witty sarcasm, @FireFoley has simply provided a competent analysis of the lack of baseball fundamentals in all aspects of UF baseball baseball and I agree with much of his analysis. I am also a student of the game and having closely followed and watched Gator baseball for 3 decades I can tell you that there are good reasons to be critical of the coaching. One issue that stands out is that they strike out a lot and leave a lot of men on base. Some players concentrate more on launch angle than making contact. There is a lack of changing their plate approach with 2 strikes such as not making any attempt at protecting the plate or choking up on the bat just to name a few. Those are all coaching issues. Just my 2 cents based on watching, coaching and studying the game for 6 decades with no suggestion that I am qualified to coach the team.

Fabian the younger is or course a freshman and will learn, but the hop he got on the error is the hop he chose to play. You either charge harder and get it on the short or stay back and play it up. The intermediate will eat you up often and that's what happened. And we don't change plate approach, it is long ball. I have seen some bunts and oppo hitting the last few games particularly against UM but we should have swept Bama. Missed opportunities. no outs runners on 1st and 2nd. You bunt them both into scoring position but of course didn't happen. Could go on all day but if you understand some of the basics of good baseball you already know. I'm in now way insinuating we can Sully, I just wish he'd show me some situational baseball.

 

[Great White Buffalo]

We won an SEC road series, always a good thing, and scored 26 runs in 3 games. The same staff we just faced went to Texas a few weeks ago and held the #2 Horns to 9 runs in a 3 game set. They had a 3.33 ERA coming into the weekend...

Our approach didn't cost us game 3, Sully didn't cost us the game, our 15th in the country defense uncharacteristically letting us down cost us the game. Purnell in the 9th was, based on the results, the wrong decision, but it's hard to fault him for running out the guy that had pitched 1 2/3 scoreless innings on the weekend. Ficarrotta had been touched up for 3 runs (2 earned) in 1/3 of an inning Friday, perhaps Sully didn't want to push his luck sending him out for a second inning. Sully's biggest weakness IMO is in game decisions, but every manager at every level of baseball has made that same mistake.

Bunt scenarios and runs expectancy:
Runner on 1st, No Outs: 0.86 runs on average
Runner on 2nd, One Out: 0.66 runs on average

Runner on 2nd, No Outs: 1.1 runs on average
Runner on 3rd, One Out: .94 runs on average

Runner on 1st and 2nd, No Outs: 1.44 runs on average
Runner on 2nd and 3rd, One Out: 1.36 runs on average

The second number in each scenario is based on the runners successfully being advanced. Because we know bunts don't always work, the runs on average would be even lower if that was factored in. There are certainly scenarios, such as a really poor hitter or when you're playing for one run, that utilizing the bunt makes more sense, but more times than not giving away an out costs you runs. Situational baseball for many teams, this team, is knocking the fuchin cover off the ball.

 

[Bullag8r]

We won an SEC road series, always a good thing, and scored 26 runs in 3 games. The same staff we just faced went to Texas a few weeks ago and held the #2 Horns to 9 runs in a 3 game set. They had a 3.33 ERA coming into the weekend...

Our approach didn't cost us game 3, Sully didn't cost us the game, our 15th in the country defense uncharacteristically letting us down cost us the game. Purnell in the 9th was, based on the results, the wrong decision, but it's hard to fault him for running out the guy that had pitched 1 2/3 scoreless innings on the weekend. Ficarrotta had been touched up for 3 runs (2 earned) in 1/3 of an inning Friday, perhaps Sully didn't want to push his luck sending him out for a second inning. Sully's biggest weakness IMO is in game decisions, but every manager at every level of baseball has made that same mistake.

Bunt scenarios and runs expectancy:
Runner on 1st, No Outs: 0.86 runs on average
Runner on 2nd, One Out: 0.66 runs on average
learn
Runner on 2nd, No Outs: 1.1 runs on average
Runner on 3rd, One Out: .94 runs on average

Runner on 1st and 2nd, No Outs: 1.44 runs on average
Runner on 2nd and 3rd, One Out: 1.36 runs on average

The second number in each scenario is based on the runners successfully being advanced. Because we know bunts don't always work, the runs on average would be even lower if that was factored in. There are certainly scenarios, such as a really poor hitter or when you're playing for one run, that utilizing the bunt makes more sense, but more times than not giving away an out costs you runs. Situational baseball for many teams, this team, is knocking the fuchin cover off the ball.

No arguments. Good stats and analysis. Another stat to factor into the equation is the number of strikeouts and the number of men left on base. Batters should at the very least learn how to protect the plate and foul off undesirable pitches with 2 strikes. That is a function of coaching.

 

[FireFoley]

So the last time I saw a player steal home in a game when the catcher threw the ball back to the pitcher's mound was 50 years ago when I played little league. That is until tonight when in the top of the 1st, Guscette does not even look the runner back at 3rd base before he girly lobs the ball back to the pitcher and we all watch the BC runner from 3rd base steal home..

 

[Bullag8r]

So the last time I saw a player steal home in a game when the catcher threw the ball back to the pitcher's mound was 50 years ago when I played little league. That is until tonight when in the top of the 1st, Guscette does not even look the runner back at 3rd base before he girly lobs the ball back to the pitcher and we all watch the BC runner from 3rd base steal home..

Sloppy coaching, sloppy practice, sloppy play. It is comparable to getting illegal procedure penalties because the offensive linemen don't know the snap count. It all goes back to coaching.

 

[Spurdog98]

What's the run expectancy with runners on 1st and 2nd with a K? Great hitters get themselves out 70% of the time and when you have no outs and runners on those bases one ground ball can be a double play and take a situation that has the defense on the ropes and puts them one pitch from being out of the inning without giving up a run. I like the bunt in that situation to advance both runners, get out of the DP ball and then the "knock the fuqing cover off the ball" scores at least one (FO) or maybe 2 on the hit in the gap. But our O didn't cost us that game, but seeing the same closer 3 days in a row and E5's damn sure didn't help.

 

[Spurdog98]

So the last time I saw a player steal home in a game when the catcher threw the ball back to the pitcher's mound was 50 years ago when I played little league. That is until tonight when in the top of the 1st, Guscette does not even look the runner back at 3rd base before he girly lobs the ball back to the pitcher and we all watch the BC runner from 3rd base steal home..

And that happened because they noticed that he was just being lazy so they took advantage.

 

[LoyalGatorFan]

I know tonight wasn't pretty but I can already tell this squad is way ahead of last years....much improved defense, balanced power lineup, more speed, better pitching.....bullpen just needs to cut down on free passes and we'll be fine

 

[Jbossgator8]

MASTERFUL pitching tonight by our Gators. We ONLY allowed 1 hit, the first time in 8 years that that has happened. We walked 7 batters but struck out 8 so we were able to overcome adversity and WIN the game. This Gator here is enjoying the win tonight.

 

[Spurdog98]

BC didn't have a player in the lineup batting over .250. Good win but 7 walks not really masterful IMO. Pogue gave up 4 of those walks in the 1st. Not sure why he couldn't find the zone. Like the win but we aren't supposed to lose that game.

 

[FireFoley]

BC didn't have a player in the lineup batting over .250. Good win but 7 walks not really masterful IMO. Pogue gave up 4 of those walks in the 1st. Not sure why he couldn't find the zone. Like the win but we aren't supposed to lose that game.

Pogue coming off TJ surgery so he is probably nervous, excited etc. Only his 2nd time out and he has been terrible in both starts, but going to take time. Perfect for him to start the mid week game to see if he can regain what he showed potentially a few years ago. Seeing Milchen pitch in relief in a weekend series with a game on the line is a most scary thought. Would be nice to have more reliability for the weekends.

 

[Joegator96]

Pogue coming off TJ surgery so he is probably nervous, excited etc. Only his 2nd time out and he has been terrible in both starts, but going to take time. Perfect for him to start the mid week game to see if he can regain what he showed potentially a few years ago. Seeing Milchen pitch in relief in a weekend series with a game on the line is a most scary thought. Would be nice to have more reliability for the weekends.

I agree about Pogue and needing more weekend reliability. The fact we don't as evidenced last night leave Sully in the dilemma of pitching mid-week Michen on weekends when the newcomers struggle so much with pounding strikes. It's going to take time.

 

[Bullag8r]

I agree about Pogue and needing more weekend reliability. The fact we don't as evidenced last night leave Sully in the dilemma of pitching mid-week Michen on weekends when the newcomers struggle so much with pounding strikes. It's going to take time.

Yes! We have had way way way too many walks this year of which, several have turned into runs

 

[fischerwood]

All righty then...I'll be @ the game Friday night compliments of my good friend The Badger...Go Gators

 

[Great White Buffalo]

No arguments. Good stats and analysis. Another stat to factor into the equation is the number of strikeouts and the number of men left on base. Batters should at the very least learn how to protect the plate and foul off undesirable pitches with 2 strikes. That is a function of coaching.

K's and RISP are baked into the cake, but I don't know specific numbers. I agree on the 2 strike approach, but like I said a couple of weeks ago, it's hard for 18-20 year old kids to be able to hit for power and show good contact skills. The problem lies with the Rivera's of the world that have some pop, but not enough to justify their K rate. I have no problem with the Langfords and Fabians of the world averaging a K per game when they're slugging .800.

 

[Great White Buffalo]

Yes! We have had way way way too many walks this year of which, several have turned into runs

We're 38th in the country in walks per nine at 3.3 per game. Could be better, but it's not a horrible number. We're 18th in WHIP (1.18), which is probably the best indicator of success.

 

[FireFoley]

Anyone who is in the loop, can you find out any info on Coppola? Yes I know he had back stiffness in week 2 and scratched and has not pitch since week 1. Anyone anyone? He show potential with just one appearance. Maybe worse than we thought.

 

[Great White Buffalo]

What's the run expectancy with runners on 1st and 2nd with a K? Great hitters get themselves out 70% of the time and when you have no outs and runners on those bases one ground ball can be a double play and take a situation that has the defense on the ropes and puts them one pitch from being out of the inning without giving up a run. I like the bunt in that situation to advance both runners, get out of the DP ball and then the "knock the fuqing cover off the ball" scores at least one (FO) or maybe 2 on the hit in the gap. But our O didn't cost us that game, but seeing the same closer 3 days in a row and E5's damn sure didn't help.

I don't know the run expectancy with a K, you should look that up, but I do know it's already part of the equation; they don't say we're not going to count this because someone struck out. I'm happy you like the bunt in that situation, but I'd be even happier if you were coaching against my team. You open up the option of intentionally walking the next batter, putting the DP right back in order, though now it would end the inning because you gave me an out. In either scenario you're probably going to get a run out of it, and sacrificing might actually give you a better chance of scoring that run, but sacrificing lowers your chances of putting up a crooked number. Like I said, in a late game situation when you need one run, it's not a bad strategy, but on the whole you score less runs. The numbers don't lie.