2022 Team Talent Composite is out!

[ThreatMatrix]

2022 College Football Team Talent Composite

In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.

247sports.com

The 247 Team Talent Composite adds up all your scholarship players at the beginning of the season. So it accounts for transfers etc. This is the aggregate talent of your entire team. It's a lot better than averaging recruiting classes. And don't forget, the team with the most talent wins 80% of the time.
We lost some talent and had a subpar recruiting class so the numbers aren't great. Nationally we have fallen from 7th to 12th. (Utah dropped a spot to 33rd - we still blow them out). Notably, future SEC member Texas has moved ahead of us. Oklahoma already was.
Let's look a the SEC #s where we went from 4th to 5th.



And 2022


Our overall average fell from 91.09 to 89.86.
We went from being 3.09 points away from the top dog to being 4.6 points from them.
So that all really sucks. transition classes hurt.

 

[AuggieDosta]

Yaaaay, more metrics!

 

[ThreatMatrix]

2022 Team Talent Composite: CFB's elite programs continue to separate from the field

Our annual breakdown of the most talented teams in college football.

247sports.com

So ur saying we have a shot?

 

[jdh5484]

What stands out to me is the quality depth that both Bamma and the leghumpers have.

It's going to take 2-3 recruiting cycles just narrow the gap. And the several #1-#3 to close it.

That DOESNT mean we aren't going to kick the buttniffers a$$holes in this season.

Hear that BN?

 

[UFHealthGator]

Utah is 33 and we are at 12 in talent, and yet we are unranked and underdogs in the Swamp. Fuchs Mullenzzes.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Yaaaay, more metrics!

Those who fail to learn from the metric, die from the metric.

 

[gatormandan]

You promised no maff.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

What stands out to me is the quality depth that both Bamma and the leghumpers have.

It's going to take 2-3 recruiting cycles just narrow the gap. And the several #1-#3 to close it.

That DOESNT mean we aren't going to kick the buttniffers a$$holes in this season.

Hear that BN?

Yep that's what we have to realize. While we have a slim chance, it is going to take a while to acquire the talent.

 

[neteng]

Do they do follow ups at the conclusion of a season to explain what caused everything to not happen the way it should have?

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Do they do follow ups at the conclusion of a season to explain what caused everything to not happen the way it should have?

What "they"? Do you mean "them"?

 

[UFHealthGator]

Do they do follow ups at the conclusion of a season to explain what caused everything to not happen the way it should have?

This is not a prediction for the season, just a talent composite based on the roster at the start of the season. Players are ranked based on their talent on NSD. Doesn't take anything else into consideration, like injuries, experience, dumb defensive coordinators, etc.

 

[Lake Gator]

Yep that's what we have to realize. While we have a slim chance, it is going to take a while to acquire the talent.

Oops. Tremorous fat finger strikes again.

 

[AuggieDosta]

Those who fail to learn from the metric, die from the metric.

What'd Rog say, "science stats make me numb, math stats make me number"?

 

[neteng]

This is not a prediction for the season, just a talent composite based on the roster at the start of the season. Players are ranked based on their talent on NSD. Doesn't take anything else into consideration, like injuries, experience, dumb defensive coordinators, etc.

That was my point.

 

[neteng]

What "they"? Do you mean "them"?

They...them...whatever pronoun the 247 nerd(s) uses.

 

[aka]

Your mom is out.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

They...them...whatever pronoun the 247 nerd(s) uses.

Well "they" don't make any predictions. Just the raw numbers. It's a snapshot taken at the beginning of each season. Everybody you have available injured or not. Is it perfect? No is it the best metric we have? probably.

Just FYI and if you want to know. The 80% comes from Will Miles who piggybacked off of someone else. Coincidentally I had run spreadsheets back to 2005 before I saw Will's work. The conclusions were about the same.

But I think what you want to know about are exceptions. Well, first 80% ain't 100%. So at least once out of five times it ain't gonna be true. So for instance we can expect to beat Georgia once every 5 years.
Second it's 80%*. The * is that you have to throw out any coaches first and last year or the average is more like 70%. Why throw out first and last year? Well because they are outliers. A coach in his first year tends to lose (even Saban) at least one more game than he should that first year.
And a coach's last year is always a disaster. But everything else being same-same the team with the most talent wins 80% of the time.

The point isn't really to make predictions though. The point is to recognize that which Mullenz couldn't see and that is that talent matters a helluva lot more than your scheme. And set the benchmark for where you need to be with respect to your competition. We have a long road to get there. Honestly, we need four straight classes that average oh, at least 93.5.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Your mom is out.

Never gets old, never. LOL

 

[neteng]

Well "they" don't make any predictions. Just the raw numbers. It's a snapshot taken at the beginning of each season. Everybody you have available injured or not. Is it perfect? No is it the best metric we have? probably.

Just FYI and if you want to know. The 80% comes from Will Miles who piggybacked off of someone else. Coincidentally I had run spreadsheets back to 2005 before I saw Will's work. The conclusions were about the same.

But I think what you want to know about are exceptions. Well, first 80% ain't 100%. So at least once out of five times it ain't gonna be true. So for instance we can expect to beat Georgia once every 5 years.
Second it's 80%*. The * is that you have to throw out any coaches first and last year or the average is more like 70%. Why throw out first and last year? Well because they are outliers. A coach in his first year tends to lose (even Saban) at least one more game than he should that first year.
And a coach's last year is always a disaster. But everything else being same-same the team with the most talent wins 80% of the time.

The point isn't really to make predictions though. The point is to recognize that which Mullenz couldn't see and that is that talent matters a helluva lot more than your scheme. And set the benchmark for where you need to be with respect to your competition. We have a long road to get there. Honestly, we need four straight classes that average oh, at least 93.5.

 

[Homer J]

The talent has not been the question he last 3 years, it’s been the coaching and their decision making.